Aussie Pairs

NAB Bank currency strategist

Economists expect the headline CPI to rise by 0.6 per cent but Mr Kyriakopoulos said interest rates would stay on hold even if the CPI went up by 0.7 per cent.

"It's not a smoking gun at 0.7 per cent, 0.7 per cent is still ambiguous.

"At 0.8 per cent they're likely to raise interest rates."
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Will be intersting to see what reaction we get at 0.6 or 0.7.

I am interested if anybody thinks it would be a good idea to have a specific trading group thread for trading the AUS. Posters to the thread would have to get permisssions to add having a, certain amount of experience or invited to add.

This would add a huge amount of value to get, different, experienced points of view on the one concentrated thread while keeping the content at a high level.

There are some AUS threads already started but seem sparatic, not specifically concentrated and infrequently added to.

great idea. I have been following the AUD/USD pair since its rise from 7700. It may have finally found a ceiling at 8380-90 area. I went short at 8370 last week. Where to exit....
Jeff

I'll be 1 interested reader. Till i get enough knowledge to enhance the thread.

Come on! where are the Antipideans?

The AUS does not seem to be the most popular currency to trade on this forum but for the antipedians that frequent this forum there is usually a good wealth of trading and local knowledge. The problem with most of the AUS threads is that they only seem to last for short time.

Forming a group thread would help a long way in concentrating a wealth of knowledge around this currency rather than infrequent threads and posts that seem to get lost in the CABLE, EURO and otheres.

Yes please! The Aussie's recent moves are intriguing and discussing it here would be prudent.

Well, here's a price pattern I discovered today (with a little artistic license). I call it the Audusaurus eating the longs...

http://gammarat.com/Forex/30070420/eatingaud.gif

hahaha that's great!

AUDUSAuraus!!! Very good!!!

I'm in.....I trade the Aussie...not often but in a slow and steady style!!!!!

Antra - that seems to be the best way. To me though it seems that the steady trend that's been in place for awhile is beginning to break up., like last year around this time, but I lon have since stopped trying to predict tops. I won't do anything significant until I see a trend in place (either up or down), except let my creative side loose on the charts. I did take a small short when it failed to meet the trend line (in solid yellow, above), but that's tightly stopped...

For those of you who might trade the AUS dollar but do not have a localised view of the news here is a good link to AUS daily dollar report.

http://www.tradingroom.com.au/news_r...on=aust_dollar

I am currently short trading the AUS/USD as I believe the momentum has changed to downward and we are starting to see lower highs and less buying on the dips as we saw last couple of weeks.

I have set my final target at 80000 over the next few weeks with some profit taking 8120 and re-adjustment of stops at 8220.

I have pyramided down on trades from 8034 but still feel the safest stop is at 8405.

There is still a good Risk Reward trade 1:3.

hey
i think the daily uptrend have been broken down and now aussie has a h4 down trend

not convinced of trend reversal. its either ranging or going for a breif correction from recent highs.

will have to keep an eye open for this pair but no entry on my end.

i'm talking about audusd on above post by the way.

audjpy makes some good moves too. audjpy ranging so far.

97.50<->100.00

My opionion on the AUS/AUD for this week is that we may see 8300 holding out as a key resistance level and ranging between it and 8200. Overall momentum being to the downside.

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$A up, but weakened by US data

Source:TradingRoom.com.auDate:2007-Apr-30 05:46 PM

Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Besa Deda said the US dollar fell after US first quarter gross domestic growth came in at a weaker-than-expected 1.3 per cent annualised gain, compared to a 2.5 per cent rise in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Economists had expected growth of 1.8 per cent.

Ms Deda said the US currency could be weakened further if non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday is also softer than expected.

But the Australian dollar's gain against the US dollar was curtailed after China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, announced measures designed to slow its economy.

It decided to raise its reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points to 11 per cent. The measure won't come into effect until the middle of May.

"Past measures to slow China's economy haven't worked," Ms Deda said.
"But China does need to slow their rate to a sustainable rate so the Chinese expansion will go on for longer."

But sustained economic growth in China would help the Australian dollar, as demand for commodities continues.

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gain up

this is my novice opinion going on visual reasoning only.
the 4 hour AUD/USD is looking very similar to the GBP/USD 4 hour....
so to me that means the USD is currently in control of price movement, whether this has always been the case, I don't know, I am new to the A/U.

I am also seeing on the 4 hour that the Highs are getting lower, in a descending triangle, the floor being around 0.8240

bad news of economy grow fom usa next week I think begin big moves on cary trade

Now is a very critical time to check it out.

There is only one direction worth trading : UP

Time will tell.

Cheers.

As highlighted below you would think that most of the next move will be based on the Feds likley chance of an Interest Rate cut. The ISM report today may give some idea of what the FED might do. I think the report may have more significance based on the weak economic numbers recently.

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$A steady ahead of rates announcement

Source:Trading Room Date:2007-May-01 05:46 PM
The Australian dollar closed higher on Tuesday but is expected to trade near its present levels as the market expects interest rates to stay on hold on Wednesday.

At 1700 AEST, the domestic unit was trading at $US0.8290/95, up from Monday's close of $US0.8264/69.

The currency moved between a low of $US0.8277 and a high of 0.8310 during local trade.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its monthly board meeting on Tuesday, and is expected to announce on Wednesday that official interest rates will remain at 6.25 per cent.

Westpac Banking Corporation currency strategist Jonathan Cavenagh said the market was not placing bets on the outcome of the RBA meeting.
"The market's got nothing priced in," he said.

An interest rate move in September is seen as a 30 per cent chance with November rated as a 40 per cent probability.

The Australian dollar has appreciated by more than two per cent against the US unit since late March based on speculation interest rates will rise.

That trajectory moderated after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released data showing the consumer price index for the March quarter was just 0.1 per cent, well below market expectations of 0.6 per cent.

That meant underlying inflation was likely to fall within the middle of the RBA's two to three per cent target range.

"Two soft CPI results and underlying inflation near 2.5 per cent has seen the market significantly scale back its expectation of action from the RBA," Mr Cavenagh said.

The Australian dollar posted small gains on Tuesday, along with the British pound sterling and the euro, as expectations of an interest rate cut in the US were boosted by lower-than-expected inflation data.

The US measure of core inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rose 2.1 per cent in March from a year earlier, to sit just above the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) target band of one to two per cent.

Economists expected the PCE to rise by 2.2 per cent.

"The market has been toying with the idea of rate cuts since late last year," Mr Cavenagh said.