Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

Well said , i also make the point at times , the broker is not your friend , people who write books are the ones who have worked or are working for brokerages hence the bias for the brokers and what the brokers want you to do , once you get past the bullsht its easer for you to understand , kindest regards

Two charts, the first is the 5-minute MNQH23, the second is the 15-minute GBP_JPY. Both are from Monday 12.12.2022 (Sunday evening into early Monday morning for me).

The MAs and any other pertinent info is annotated. I was using a base 20-ema preferred by Brooks. I have since switched back to the 25-ema used by Volman. The choice of a base MA is arbitrary. What matters is how it's used. From the base I get a 15-minute ema of 75 periods and an H1 ema of 300 periods for the MNQ. For the GJ it is an H1 with a period of 100.

These are what I call dynamic higher time frame MAs in that they are derived from the current time frame. The one-hour period on a 5-minute time frame would be 12 bars. 12 times whatever the base period gives you the hourly equivalent. Simple concept if what I just wrote makes sense.

The H1-ema is the main "trend". It is really the main direction. For the MNQ, which includes the MES, the 15-minute ema is the main MA. I do not give much attention to the base 25-ema.

Then there are the Hull MAs. The Hull is a fairly recent creation (2005 I believe). It uses weighted MAs run through a formula to give them cyclic nature they have. As far as the MAs go these are the "secret sauce" in that they are the MAs that guide you to the better entries. I will get into all of this as I go.

An interesting pattern occurred on the GJ last Sunday. Notice how the Hulls turn up above the H1 100-ema. You also had price running sideways above that ema. This pattern is what we called a slider and often resulted in a decent trade.

The MNQ was doing the slow move to connect back to the M15 75-ema. Being a Sunday evening (as it is a US equity index) it's movement is a bit slower. Even so, there were a few places that gave up 10+ points. And a stretch that gave 25+ if managed correctly.

More to come. For anyone who is going this route feel free to drop in.

Once you start thinking for yourself things tend to fall into place.

And the avatar is me picking up the guitar again and trying to channel my inner MudCrutch ...

Look at this guys posts - CPFLEGER - he is a moving average trader whose approach might interest you?


https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...rategy?page=27

Interesting. But I have an approach that interests me.

And I don't have to be as aggressive with all those entries. Too many in my book.

Sorry - didn't mean to go off piste

The main problem (besides the total pip/point amount which is really a non-argument) is that the Asian session is often moving off the messed-up US red data days.
The other "issue" (which sometimes is a blessing) is the often ranging nature of the Asian session. You also have to be aware of upcoming (mostly) US red data.

This is Monday evening/Tuesday morning (based on that geographic location thing). Once you start looking at enough charts, what you see in its final form will start to become visible as it is created. That confidence comes from accepting the premises and going forward from there. If I never mentioned it, I consider the Asian session as starting at 0000 GMT and going to the start of the London session at 0800 GMT.

A main premise is the 1st hour being session high/low/range. Another premise is that price and the main MA have not only the equilibrium point (which often is but a brief moment) but also abide by the attraction/rejection theory. This is where price and the MA tend to come together then move apart. (It is price doing the movement, but I tend to talk of it in both directions.) Another aspect of price movement is how it does move in blocks. When you get the 25 to 50 or more pips - which is 2 25 pip blocks- it is good. Sadly, there are periods of less than optimal movement. That is something learned from experience. With how my charts are set up, those lesser areas become identifiable. No matter the session I trade, I usually wait until after the first hour to look for trades. Do I miss the occasional first hour boom move? Yup. Matters not.

This day had 2 entries short and one of those irritating narrow ranges. The main idea for a day like this is to reconnect with the H1-ema. Some of the best entries come when price moves from one side of the 20-hull to the other. The cross needs to be near the arch or trough. The closer to that high/low the better. Add in the confluence of levels and you have an acceptable entry. An example of this is point A.

The too narrow area is point B.

The second entry was a post news entry at point C. This becomes a subjective entry depending on how you play them. One way is to enter as price moves through the 20-hull. An alternative is to enter on the bar that opens, in this case, inside of the 20-hull. All told, about 40p. There was also a breakthrough long at the beginning of the session.

Don't worry man. All is good with me. I just say what I think at the moment.

His thread starts off good. Will take a look.

A chart similar to this is what set me off to create the method/system I have been describing. When I saw that movement on most days was sufficient for my purposes I then researched the volume to ensure that it was liquid enough to take the risk. When I was satisfied I could likely trade up to 5 contracts without any real issues I created a way I think will work to trade it.

A day such as this would be a close-open below the 20-hull and 20-ema. This was also a close-open below the initial hour. I have been working on moving the initial stop to BE+ (enough to cover expenses of commission and fees) at about 7.5 points. Then move the stop to about 7 points once it goes over 10 points. From there I hope to get a bit more extended move and will move the stop based on PA. So, the entry at A would have resulted in about 7 points.

The second entry would be around B. I prefer to wait a few bars when price slides to the other side of the hull in this manner. Sometimes it results in a false entry. Here it would have been another around 7 points.

C was a momentum type trade with price moving straight through the hull. This was a quick 10 points to the M15-ema.

D is another version of a slider. This one is a bit messier than the first example. You can still see where the hulls and price moved along the M15-ema. Anywhere where price cleared the M15-ema is a valid entry point. These are the types of moves you like to see develop as they offer an opportunity to ride it for awhile. This one is also an example of a low forming.

The thing is, moving averages are nothing more than a mathematical derivation of price over a given time period. Kinda funny, I am using a derivative of price to trade an instrument which in itself is a derivative.

What I do is not just the MAs. I incorporate a lot of PA. This is a messy chart showing the high/low established during the first hour. I would suggest a study of just this pattern of the influence the first hour has.

Three trades on the GJ last night. A was about 28p. B was about 25. And C could have given up to about 60p. Minimal DD on entry. These are repeatable entries once you know what to look for.

The MAs give me a framework that I understand.

This is the MNQH23 for Sunday/Monday. The first thing is the first hour box. Price made a few attempts to break above and below only to come back throughout the entire session. The definite entries are marked A, B, C. These would have given some decent results. A abt 12 pts, B abt 32 pts, and C abt 25 pts. There was also a bonus for you London folks. The two marked with just arrows are valid, they just didn't pan out which will happen on occasion. After that the range tightened and price went into a Volman squeeze of price between a MA and a trendline.

It is snowing here.

And before I forget

Congrats Argentina

One, two, three, four
Do you realize
That you have the most beautiful face?
Do you realize
We're floating in space?
Do you realize
That happiness makes you cry?
Do you realize
That everyone you know someday will die?
And instead of saying all of your goodbyes
Let them know you realize that life goes fast
It's hard to make the good things last
You realize the sun doesn't go down
It's just an illusion caused by the world spinning round
Do you realize?
Ah-ah-ah
Do you realize
That everyone you know someday will die?
And instead of saying all of your goodbyes
Let them know you realize that life goes fast
It's hard to make the good things last
You realize the sun doesn't go down
It's just an illusion caused by the world spinning round
Do you realize
That you have the most beautiful face?
Do you realize?

Songwriters: Wayne Coyne, Michael Ivins, Steven Drozd, Dave Fridmann

I guess Stacey Burke will be releasing his Opus this evening.

Previous day close - PDC - and open - PDO - and current day open - DO are important levels.

Also notice how once price reached and created a bottom it ranged from there. This period - end of year - is kept under tight reign.

I finally have gotten to the point where I can ease back and study PA without the need to rush I felt at first. Going to start up where I left off with Al-B. I will then be able to incorporate what I consider important. At this stage anything that can be worked into what I have should be a plus. Do not want to overwhelm, so the continued study will mostly be to better understand price movement at this level.

There it is. Mr Stacey Burke now has a pay for product. I will not be purchasing this. I am sure it is an ok quality product. There is more than enough free material out there.