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USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #86,321
  • Dec 5, 2022 10:49pm Dec 5, 2022 10:49pm
Well looks like sentiment is shaky again on the $. Still all about the fed hikes and how many how big. . I’m still bearish on this pair .. for a variety of reasons with both fed and boj. .. But there will be better entry points for me to short to continue the trend down. Looks to me the market is questioning the size and how many more hikes .. and that the cycle isn’t slowing down just yet. Ahh market sentiment.
  • #86,322
  • Dec 6, 2022 4:05am Dec 6, 2022 4:05am
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  • #86,323
  • Dec 6, 2022 4:27am Dec 6, 2022 4:27am
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  • #86,324
  • Dec 6, 2022 5:35am Dec 6, 2022 5:35am
Quoting ChiForex
Eventually going to near 120. Stop wasting your time and energy on useless some pips short term trades. You wonder why big players and investors rarely loose and make lot of money? Because they trade long term like sold 149-150 and waiting for 120 or lower while enjoying their lives NOT looking at the screen every minutes like scalpers and small players do!!
If and if price can manage through Weekly Support at 133, then 125 is next. We still have to see whether this is just a retracement for those 1800 pips drop or is it a potential continuation of the trend.

133.40 Support produced more than 350 pips move so far which definitely indicates Bigger Bulls are around these prices down there.

If price wants to go to 125, there will be a decent move up to perhaps 140 before the further drop takes place. They need to get some Bulls in before dropping price even more. (In my opinion).
  • #86,325
  • Dec 6, 2022 1:06pm Dec 6, 2022 1:06pm
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} If and if price can manage through Weekly Support at 133, then 125 is next. We still have to see whether this is just a retracement for those 1800 pips drop or is it a potential continuation of the trend. 133.40 Support produced more than 350 pips move so far which definitely indicates Bigger Bulls are around these prices down there. If price wants to go to 125, there will be a decent move up to perhaps 140 before the further drop takes place. They need to get some Bulls in before dropping price even more. (In my opinion).
So far so good.
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  • #86,326
  • Dec 7, 2022 7:20am Dec 7, 2022 7:20am
We have to be careful. Again Im short bias on this pair because of the BOJ and because for a while the market was thinking this interest rate cycle was easing . BUT, its hard to fight the interest rate differentials .. must be cautious as the reality is that we are still in a rate rising cycle. With USD/JPY Im more comfortable shorting in the 140s as the BOJ likes to jaw bone in those areas . 2008 thru 2013 is still very much in my mind as this was my favorite pair to buy in the 70s holding a core position (and trading around it) till it approached a 100. That was crazy times. Im going to continue to watch and listen to what the market thinks pertaining to the $ .. Remember too that the 200 DMA on anything is always a tough nut to crack when reversing trend. Usually a major news event is needed to break it and start the new trend as it will always provide a good temporary resistance/support on the daily. We can all think what we want .. in the end its about the trend and taking a piece in that trend. Good luck today. I will add that the DXY daily chart looks interesting.. 200 DMA is acting as resistance.
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  • #86,327
  • Dec 7, 2022 7:32am Dec 7, 2022 7:32am
BOC in hour and a half. We'll see if that will have any impact on this pair.
  • #86,328
  • Dec 7, 2022 7:47am Dec 7, 2022 7:47am
Quoting TheWolf
BOC in hour and a half. We'll see if that will have any impact on this pair.
I doubt that it will.

I'm short UJ based on the 0.7% decrease in labor unit costs - THAT is really what the FED is looking at - not commodities or "things" it's all about wages and rent.

IMHO this give cover for the FED to dismiss the higher PPI and instead only raise by 0.5% next week.

I'm DXY negative for the week.
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Watching the 136.50 area for todays TP
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #86,329
  • Dec 7, 2022 10:37pm Dec 7, 2022 10:37pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I doubt that it will. I'm short UJ based on the 0.7% decrease in labor unit costs - THAT is really what the FED is looking at - not commodities or "things" it's all about wages and rent. IMHO this give cover for the FED to dismiss the higher PPI and instead only raise by 0.5% next week. I'm DXY negative for the week. {image} Watching the 136.50 area for todays TP
Usually momentum follows momentum so therefore with the uj being down down about 8% in November. Momentum is clearly down
  • #86,330
  • Edited Dec 9, 2022 1:48am Dec 8, 2022 2:15am | Edited Dec 9, 2022 1:48am
Morning fellow traders, today i want to share my trading breakdown on usd/jpy sell position to make 82 pips as you can see the chart below.





this is how we achieved our 82 pips on sell position of usd/jpy as you can see the chart below , before and after.
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bakare
  • #86,331
  • Dec 8, 2022 11:42pm Dec 8, 2022 11:42pm
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Recently, the Bank of Japan began to conduct foreign exchange interference, and this operation is to sell dollars and buy back the yen, which led to a sharp decline in the USDJPY pairing. In addition, the consumer price index in the United States was lower than expected again, and the market began to expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the rate hike in December, which put pressure on the dollar, which also indirectly led to the decline of the dollar against the yen.

From technical analysis perspective, the price action has breakthrough strong support area and the price is also below EMA (Exponential Moving Average) in 1hour time frame. Currently expect that the price will go lower and can try to do short position 143.135. -VM
  • #86,332
  • Dec 9, 2022 1:51am Dec 9, 2022 1:51am
usd/ gpy hit our 82 pips on sell position as you can see the chart below.
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bakare
  • #86,333
  • Dec 9, 2022 7:18am Dec 9, 2022 7:18am
Short into FOMC
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,334
  • Dec 10, 2022 3:09am Dec 10, 2022 3:09am
Quoting Forexgogo
just my two cents... I stop trading JPY not because of the intervention, but because Russia started missile drills -- missiles that can carry nukes. If Putin launches one for real, even a small limited powered one, which would mess up the market pretty badly. I think JPY gets mighty strong in a second the news comes in. And I wouldn't be surprised if the spike is huge like Swiss Franc shock in 2015. Stop Loss may not work against that kind of surge. Of course I stop taking a long position in xxxUSD, too because USD is likely to get strong if that...

Update: Bloomberg article Dec/10 2022
Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ke-to-strategy

If that happens, I don't know how low EUR and GBP get against USD and JPY.
Just my two cents....
  • #86,335
  • Dec 10, 2022 9:37am Dec 10, 2022 9:37am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Update: Bloomberg article Dec/10 2022 Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ke-to-strategy If that happens, I don't know how low EUR and GBP get against USD and JPY. Just my two cents....

Cars kill people. Following your model, rather than put on safety belts and drive safely we should abandon the car. Instead shouldn't we use stop loss levels and money management, thus ensuring we "arrive at our destination"? There's a youtube video of a guy who made 190,000 dollars in 4 hours off of a 200 investment. How? He traded the volatile oil news. This to me sounds like such an opportunity. Problems are just opportunities without solutions my friend. Rather than step out.. figure out how to make it work to your advantage. Warren Buffet said it best. When there is blood in the streets it is time to act. The world is changing. There will be blood. You can step over it.. I choose to use it.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,336
  • Dec 11, 2022 9:08am Dec 11, 2022 9:08am
Quoting mrluckystar
{quote} Hi coreg. Need your guidance.. I have mark all possibility in UJ. Anything I'm miss out? Thanks in advance . {image}
mrluckystar, I don't know why we have different levels for the 127.2-161.8 extensions.
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #86,337
  • Dec 11, 2022 9:39am Dec 11, 2022 9:39am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Update: Bloomberg article Dec/10 2022 Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ke-to-strategy If that happens, I don't know how low EUR and GBP get against USD and JPY. Just my two cents....
If ANYONE sends a nuke I think the Forex markets will be the LEAST of our concerns...

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...because you never know - until you do!
  • #86,338
  • Dec 11, 2022 9:52am Dec 11, 2022 9:52am
Quoting Alkhine
In the daily period, apparently the third rising wave of the senior level (3) has ended and as part of that wave 5 has been created in (3). In the 4-hour time frame, a downward corrective movement in the form of the fourth wave (4) has started to grow, in a way that wave A in (4) continues to be created. In the period of 1 hour, apparently, the fifth wave of the junior level, i.e. v, grows in A, and wave (iii) is created in v from within it. If the proposed assumptions are correct, the pair index will continue its downward movement to the levels...
Quoting Alkhine
...of 127.32 to 133.16. In this scenario, the level of 139.90 is very important. The failure of this level will cause the pair to continue its upward movement towards the levels of 143.75 to 145.74. {image} {image} {image}
Just had to say, great analysis mate, thanks!!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #86,339
  • Dec 11, 2022 10:09am Dec 11, 2022 10:09am
Quoting mtako
Dear USDJPY mates, Hope you are all well. I have been waiting for long potential to happen again I have a first buy stop 135.60, anticipating the 12H inverted hammer break out with the help of significant support. Note that it is also Friday's first 12H high AND, remember my 135.6 long many weeks ago which had done well AND half way from the recent lower low and my next buy stop 137.6, which would bring price right back into November levels + remember the extremely significant 29th of August move! Many coincidences...
12H inverted Hammer in the lowest of lows still waiting for Thor to come and use it !! Bloody ranging !!!!!

Anyhow, nothing much changed for me. Week closed right in the middle of my two longs . Why am I not surprised ! My other buy stops, are very far, but why not share away, just in case another miracle happens, the other way Buy stops 138.6 140.00000 142.5000000000 147.00000000000000000

Zoom in ... Zoom out ...

Happy beginning of trading week everyone !!!
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #86,340
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:41pm Dec 11, 2022 2:41pm
USDJPY price action on the daily time frame retested the 135.900/132.300 horizontal support (green) seen on the weekly time frame, experienced a bullish pushback from the zone, and, presently, it is sideways. Although recent technical prints are ambivalent, we cannot rule out further southward move to retest the zone.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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