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  • #86,121
  • Oct 18, 2022 7:37am Oct 18, 2022 7:37am
Took another short @ 149.15.

Now, the level of fussiness had become so appalling. Let's get this over with. It doesn't matter if I open one position, or multiple. If I open one with 0.6 lot, then I'm done with it. If I subdivided that into ten smaller lots, 1/10th the size, 0.06 lots, then I can have 10 positions with disproportionally smaller risks ratio than one single 0.6 lot.

I could have closed my shorts #050 and #185 when it spiked down three hours ago. I didn't, not because I can't, but I don't need to. The BOJ had been firing warning shots to the market lately, through these small but meaningful sharp spikes. It is not because they can't intervene, but they choose not to. They rather give the market opportunities, after opportunites to retrace. If too many warnings had been issued, and speculators are still stubborn, then the intervention on the scale of Sep 22 will be unleashed, and that will be very unforgiving, 500-600 points volatility, or even doubled that.
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  • #86,122
  • Oct 18, 2022 7:39am Oct 18, 2022 7:39am
Quoting mtako
{quote} {quote} {quote}First dynamic TP for my second usdjpy adventure of the year is near enough to announce : 150.50, and will change, especially if not hit by Thursday. My 2 other positions' stops are trailing closely now, around 145 and 142. Notice the one target in the highs, while the others are trailing. Notice the awful drawdown! Potential calculations must be promising to let it go that far. Return/drawdown stays around 2, Mtako stays very very , for it is not easy to make it work! IF TP hit will wait for pullback for reentry. All...
Adding to my longs perhaps. 15 min pullback. Waiting for bears to finish their move by placing a buy stop 149.080
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #86,123
  • Oct 18, 2022 8:16am Oct 18, 2022 8:16am
Pride is greatest before the fall.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,124
  • Oct 18, 2022 12:13pm Oct 18, 2022 12:13pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Anyone know what happened on that 1m dive and recover candle? I think they may have shown us the daily target for the day. Looks like someone jumped the gun on a bulk order. No bonus for little Jimmy {image}
Manipulation, pure and simple. I've seen this sort of thing before specifically on this pair. I was in two positions pyramiding in and both got wiped out and then some (SL slipped 12-15 pips). I've seen this happen to others and I guess it was my turn to experience it.

There's normal manipulation like stop raids/hunts, but this was something different. This was criminal.

Oh well, all part of trading.
  • #86,125
  • Oct 18, 2022 3:33pm Oct 18, 2022 3:33pm
Quoting fxpipper
{quote} Manipulation, pure and simple. I've seen this sort of thing before specifically on this pair. I was in two positions pyramiding in and both got wiped out and then some (SL slipped 12-15 pips). I've seen this happen to others and I guess it was my turn to experience it. There's normal manipulation like stop raids/hunts, but this was something different. This was criminal. Oh well, all part of trading.

It was stealth manipulation by the JP government. Now anyone who sells the yen would be susceptible to such stop hunts like these unless they use wider stops which I think would be ridiculous but to each his own. I mean if they couldn't meaningfully intervene, they would just make it much harder for those who bet against the yen.
  • #86,126
  • Oct 18, 2022 3:40pm Oct 18, 2022 3:40pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Anyone know what happened on that 1m dive and recover candle? I think they may have shown us the daily target for the day. Looks like someone jumped the gun on a bulk order. No bonus for little Jimmy {image}
good entry
  • #86,127
  • Oct 19, 2022 2:13am Oct 19, 2022 2:13am
Entered another short @ 149.44

The quick 5-minute dip yesterday was indeed BOJ stealth intervention. We can expect more of these... coming. They'll make it so costly and painful to short sell yen. I think the message had been loud and clear that they would not tolerate disorderly market.
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  • #86,128
  • Oct 19, 2022 3:29am Oct 19, 2022 3:29am
Quoting cchin
Took another short @ 149.15. Now, the level of fussiness had become so appalling. Let's get this over with. It doesn't matter if I open one position, or multiple. If I open one with 0.6 lot, then I'm done with it. If I subdivided that into ten smaller lots, 1/10th the size, 0.06 lots, then I can have 10 positions with disproportionally smaller risks ratio than one single 0.6 lot. I could have closed my shorts #050 and #185 when it spiked down three hours ago. I didn't, not because I can't, but I don't need to. The...

I hate to do this, but noobs come here for information so I have to call bullshit on this. The spike down occurred in a 1m time span. Unless he previously placed stop losses (or even trailing stops) there was no way for him to get out of these trades in that 1m unless he was sitting in front of the chart, AND closed them all within the 30 seconds it nested at the bottom of that candle. Even if he were in front of his chart it is more likely that he saw this as his long awaited intervention and expected it to go further. I could be wrong, but with the information provided on his chart, I see no other conclusion.
I now return you to your regularly scheduled programing.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,129
  • Oct 19, 2022 3:49am Oct 19, 2022 3:49am
The level of cynicism was just over the top.
It appears that it has now turned from bickering to borderline harassment.
It's been a hostile environment. Sorry, but I'll have to leave you with it.

Best,
Kate
  • #86,130
  • Oct 19, 2022 4:01am Oct 19, 2022 4:01am
Quoting cchin
The level of cynicism was just over the top. It appears that it has now turned from bickering to borderline harassment. It's been a hostile environment. Sorry, but I'll have to leave you with it. Best, Kate
I am good with that @ leaving. Not like you are presenting anything teachable. Only what trades you are taking. These are gamble trades. I know. I used to make them. I am all for the free exchange of information, but be honest. Most of us here are singular traders and post things so that we can make ourselves accountable and in doing so learn from our mistakes. My posts are LITTERED with mistakes. I can't tell you how many times I thought AHA.. Now I got it, only to then discover.. not so much. We all make mistakes. We even make wild ass trades. But don't spill milk in the toilet and then tell me you are trying out a new bowl. That singular line showed your colors my friend. Lies will be called out here, so yeah.. perhaps for the best. Luck to you.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,131
  • Oct 19, 2022 4:16am Oct 19, 2022 4:16am
Oct 31 2011. the bottom.
This is the news from that day.
The FOMC statement came out on Nov 2.
This is PURELY speculation, so grain of salt, but history tends to repeat itself.
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The only thing that appears to have come out before the candle is JPY PMI. That is unless we go to the previous week, but the 3 am speach by BOJ seems to reinforced the trade, so... Again.. pure speculation. I am bored. too much sleep.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,132
  • Oct 19, 2022 5:58am Oct 19, 2022 5:58am
Japan govt and BOJ playing around, they will not survive this yen fall catastrophe
  • #86,133
  • Oct 19, 2022 6:18am Oct 19, 2022 6:18am
Looks like 150 is acting like a magnet. For sure its gonna get wild as so point soon.
Get the Lag out
  • #86,134
  • Oct 19, 2022 6:35am Oct 19, 2022 6:35am
Quoting cchin
Entered another short @ 149.44 The quick 5-minute dip yesterday was indeed BOJ stealth intervention. We can expect more of these... coming. They'll make it so costly and painful to short sell yen. I think the message had been loud and clear that they would not tolerate disorderly market. {image}

Day after day I wonder who is on the opposite side of a winning market and when I visit these forums and see these types of images I assure myself there's still people like you out there. It is the most clear, easily distinguishable BULLISH market for such a long time, and you keep shorting it.. LOL.

I give my thanks to you and others like you, keep doing that so others can profit.
"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing."
  • #86,135
  • Oct 19, 2022 6:37am Oct 19, 2022 6:37am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} i will enter another buy order soon if the price stays above 148.5 within the next hour target is 150 {image}
It is slowly getting close to 150 and I would expect the rally to accelerate if it breaches that level

the 153 region would be ideal to take profit and then wait for any intervention dip to buy
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #86,136
  • Oct 19, 2022 8:28am Oct 19, 2022 8:28am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} It is slowly getting close to 150 and I would expect the rally to accelerate if it breaches that level the 153 region would be ideal to take profit and then wait for any intervention dip to buy
above 150, 152.3 and then 155.8 look like good targets for bulls
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #86,137
  • Edited 11:47am Oct 19, 2022 8:38am | Edited 11:47am
150 sure and non stop
  • #86,138
  • Oct 19, 2022 12:36pm Oct 19, 2022 12:36pm
Almost there! Waiting for a buy entry at a lower price.
  • #86,139
  • Oct 19, 2022 3:59pm Oct 19, 2022 3:59pm
Very compressed up there

Time for big move?
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #86,140
  • Oct 19, 2022 7:25pm Oct 19, 2022 7:25pm
The pair is continuing to find resistance at 149.9 at time of writing, with eyes on a possible BOJ intervention today.

All trading carries risk, and the Japanese CB may step in to help USDJPY ease from these record highs today. However, with the on-going monetary policy divergence, it will be interesting to see if an attempted break above the major psych level at 150 is unavoidable over the near-term.
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