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Swing Trades using Price Action

  • #161
  • Sep 22, 2022 4:32pm Sep 22, 2022 4:32pm
Does WTI daily chart qualify today, to be a potential short trade?
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  • #162
  • Oct 12, 2022 1:01am Oct 12, 2022 1:01am
Quoting kedridder
Does WTI daily chart qualify today, to be a potential short trade? {image}
YES
A snails pace wins the race :-)
  • #163
  • Oct 15, 2022 4:35am Oct 15, 2022 4:35am
It's been a lean month on the daily chart for this method.
However, this week produced 2 entries, sell EURUSD and sell XAUUSD.
The euro trade failed but the gold trade is going nicely.
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #164
  • Edited 3:54pm Oct 18, 2022 3:40pm | Edited 3:54pm
Another entry short Gold Monday
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #165
  • Jan 15, 2023 1:09pm Jan 15, 2023 1:09pm
Interesting method you have here. Think I'd like to test it out for myself.

Not sure this EURAUD candles qualifies with the wick size, but its coming off what looks to be resistance, and the trend looks to be lower...
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  • #166
  • Jan 15, 2023 1:28pm Jan 15, 2023 1:28pm
Quoting pt49
So what is the problem, why doesn't everyone use this? ... because it is Swing Trading... VERY little action. ****** You have been trained to EXPECT action. ****** The Algorithim knows how to take your money {image} {image}
Purely based on these comments, its no surprise this thread is dead....pity...
  • #167
  • Jan 15, 2023 9:50pm Jan 15, 2023 9:50pm
also USDCHF seems to have given a few signals for a continuation lower...
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  • #168
  • Jan 18, 2023 3:56am Jan 18, 2023 3:56am
both trades moving in the intended direction....
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  • #169
  • Jan 20, 2023 10:10am Jan 20, 2023 10:10am
Hallo pt,
Hallo altogether,

I trade many Setups with 8,20,100 EMAs
on one Instrument only
but for all TFs from M1 to D1.

To find TrendConditions I use 100EMA as a main Filter,
it helps me.


s. my Charts

atb
vvm

PS If all EMAs are flatt, I trade a Range:
Sell @ the Top & buy @ the Bottom
For Entries I go to a smaller TF

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PA Trading with EMAs & common Sense
  • #170
  • Edited 9:14am Jan 25, 2023 8:39am | Edited 9:14am
I'm joining the party a little late but I like this strategy. I will be posting setups.

There are a few things I would tweak however. From the first thread, these are the main rules

Daily Charts with 8 & 16 EMA's - I will be using EMA14 & EMA200.
ONLY trade with the Trend... no trend, no trade! - YES
Wait for a Hammer, Shooting Star, Hanging Man, long wick Doji... (any candle with a long wick... the long wick must be at least ⅔ of total candle length). Wait for this -YES!
Daily candle to close. - YES
The long wick must at least touch or pierce the 8 EMA... this is the "qualifying candle". - YES but either EMA14/200
Enter at the Open of the following daily candle. - I will be looking for a better entry that I hope Asia/LN open would trigger. Mainly just runs of the latest High/Low or Fresh Sup/Dem.
Place a Stop at the top (or bottom) of the qualifying candle. - I will place stops at the sup/dem the candle is reacting to.
Take Profit must be at least 2:1 of the number of pips of the Stop... if the stop is 150 pips from the entry, then you place a Take Profit of at least 300 pips. - ALL trades 1.5R.

I also follow the 1-2-3 pattern for structure. But one change in 1-2-3 pattern doesn't mean it's a change in structure as it depends where it is going to but just gives me visual cues for the structure. (https://pipbear.com/price-action-pattern/1-2-3/)

Outside of those strict rules I will have discretion on what setups to take and ignore, and hopefully I can make better decisions over time with some feedback from others.

The HTFs take away a lot of the noise that confuses direction and this entry mechanism or "setup" is very straightforward.

This is a long term strat. REMEMBER THE MARKET IS A MECHANISM THAT TRANSFERS WEALTH FROM THE IMPATIENT TO PATIENT!

ANY and ALL CONSTRUCTIVE feedback is welcome!
  • #171
  • Jan 25, 2023 8:55am Jan 25, 2023 8:55am
To get things started. Here are two setups that came last night. I AM NOT in either.

EN:
MN - Structure up (last 1-2-3 pattern was upside) and last month was bullish but no real momentum to the upside
W1 - Again structure is up but last week was strongly bearish and EMA converging but we want to see divergence.
D1 - We can see on D1, the EMA200 held as dynamic support the previous times price came and it held up pretty well. That zone holds liquidity.

We can see the trade would have worked out but for me it's not strong enough due to the weak trend (as we can see from the EMAs) and the previous weekly candle.

UCHF:
MN - looks very bearish. It tried for 1-2-3 to upside but failed and pushed down hard.
W1 - Again very bearish.
D1 - Bearish with nice EMA14 rejection

Overall not a trade for me. The reason is the daily. We are bearish and we have had a nice retrace up which could be the 2 leg of the next 1-2-3 down but I can't quite say why I don't like it. I just don't like it.
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  • #172
  • Jan 26, 2023 6:28am Jan 26, 2023 6:28am
Last night GJ was valid but I didn't take it.

We can see the current daily candle retraced before going up and on H1 there was a nice demand zone to target for entry. It was nice because coming into NY close price was going up. Therefore nice chance of a retrace during Asia.

I did think about this one quite a bit and decided against it due to the daily.

MN: not valid in this case.
W1: Nice engulf showing upward momentum
D1: We have just crossed the EMA14 and are still below the EMA200. Also the 1-2-3 patterns on D1 were to the downside and just printed the first to the upside. For this strategy, I am looking at strongly trending markets only. We had a very strong down move and it's not clear what will happen next yet.

All three I have posted here would have worked out but I actively chose not to taken any. In hindsight, UCHF was 100% valid and there was no valid reason not to take it. I have noted this and will make sure it doesn't happen again.

As this is a new strategy, it will take time to build observations around the strat.

Any feedback or another perspective is welcome.
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  • #173
  • Jan 27, 2023 12:01am Jan 27, 2023 12:01am
GN from last night. Technically a signal but not valid for me.

W1: Completely flat
D1: Looks flat to me too and 1-2-3 patterns going down. We had one to the upside but no established trend.
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  • #174
  • Jan 27, 2023 11:30pm Jan 27, 2023 11:30pm
Quoting TenforTen
Interesting method you have here. Think I'd like to test it out for myself. Not sure this EURAUD candles qualifies with the wick size, but its coming off what looks to be resistance, and the trend looks to be lower... {image}
Hello friend... no, that candle doesn't qualify.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #175
  • Jan 27, 2023 11:39pm Jan 27, 2023 11:39pm
Quoting TenforTen
also USDCHF seems to have given a few signals for a continuation lower... {image}
Your charts are very different to mine, if you are using TradingView, you must have TIME set different to me.
I use New York time... currently UTC -5
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #176
  • Jan 27, 2023 11:51pm Jan 27, 2023 11:51pm
Quoting TheHusla
To get things started. Here are two setups that came last night. I AM NOT in either. EN: MN - Structure up (last 1-2-3 pattern was upside) and last month was bullish but no real momentum to the upside W1 - Again structure is up but last week was strongly bearish and EMA converging but we want to see divergence. D1 - We can see on D1, the EMA200 held as dynamic support the previous times price came and it held up pretty well. That zone holds liquidity. We can see the trade would have worked out but for me it's not strong enough due to the weak trend...
I'm sorry mate but I simply can't read your dark charts.
I like your take on adding to this method though.
Good luck with it.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #177
  • Jan 28, 2023 12:38am Jan 28, 2023 12:38am
Thanks for the response!

Post the MT4 template you use and I'll use it. It doesn't matter to me which template I use. My charts are MT4.

My aim in posting these charts is to swap observations with others.
  • #178
  • Jan 28, 2023 1:00am Jan 28, 2023 1:00am
Can you tell me if this method can only be used on the daily chart? Can I get consistent results on lower trading cycles, looks good, need to review and verify.
Just follow the trend.
  • #179
  • Jan 28, 2023 12:50pm Jan 28, 2023 12:50pm
Quoting lucaswalliam
Can you tell me if this method can only be used on the daily chart? Can I get consistent results on lower trading cycles, looks good, need to review and verify.
Lower the TF the higher the noise. Yes H4 can work and maybe so can H1 but will get a lower winrate and more noise. A daily rejection is more powerful than a H4 rejection which is more powerful than a H1 rejection. You would need to backtest to collect stats.
  • #180
  • Jan 29, 2023 1:24am Jan 29, 2023 1:24am
Quoting TheHusla
{quote} Lower the TF the higher the noise. Yes H4 can work and maybe so can H1 but will get a lower winrate and more noise. A daily rejection is more powerful than a H4 rejection which is more powerful than a H1 rejection. You would need to backtest to collect stats.
I am verifying it, still need more samples and data. The results look pretty good.
Just follow the trend.
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