Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

GBPUSD 1 MN

opened Long position

Dave understood - I should have been tired when I wrote that !

Haha, i take it like a compliment .

A new pic here, from sp500 futures daily bars.


We can see that price fall again, 5th move from the ATH

The 4th move from ATH on SP500, shows broken move, and confirms that we are in the current 5th.

courtesy of Terry Pascoe

Envelopes allows you to rationally classify then hierarchize Price Action Waves

Envelopes and Waves

Observational Analysis shows that we can observe 3 Dominant Composite Waves in Red noted 1,2 and 3 linked by 2 Composite Waves of lesser degree in green noted A and B - kind of "Transitional Waves ???

Hence we can observe some "Cyclicality" but not the traditional one https://discord.com/assets/7c010dc6d...2c1f002bb4.svg

i found it fun to post it here to decontract a bit

XAUUSD Daily

Focal Points

Context:
The last top (august 2020) of Gold (monthly chart) presents a higher volume average per bar compared to previous top (2011)
The last minor top (march 2022) presents a diminution of volume compared to previous top (august 2020). Confirming the downtrend, like a pullback of context uptrend longterm in gold.

Parabola scaled with focals on weekly Gold

Courtesy of Terry Pascoe

About Synchronicity and Nest of Lows

Cycles are not in synchrony for 2 structural reasons :

a) even if you are a strong believer in Hurst's LAST Nominal model you have a structural Mathematical BEAT due to the 2 and 3 relationship between cycle
b) as real life is hard you have another deviation due to the Principle of Variation.

Both structural reasons being cumulative

If Cycles were in synchrony a) it woul be visible, b) everybody would use Cycles

Trading would be so simple that everyone would make money from Cycles

If cycles were in perfect sync we would never see rounded bottoms or retests of the low. Every bottom would be a sharp bounce

another reason of why Cycles are not in synchrony ( not fully) is that in the first Nominal Model used by Hurst , page 33 of Profit Magic,1970, you have a 3 Year, a 12 months and a 6 Months cycle and a 3 months cycle. which Hurst does not use une the Course Model (1975).

Why have these Cycles disappeared 5 years later ?

Can these Cycles reappeared ? and create disturbances in the Phasing Analysis

moreover Hurst wrote, alway page 33 *"The 26 weeks and 13 weeks componentsoften appear in data as combined effect of 18 week nominal duration"* Can we imagine other "*combined effect "* for other Cycles?




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GOLD SINEWAVE