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  • #157,181
  • Sep 20, 2022 8:43am Sep 20, 2022 8:43am
1 of 4 did NOT close above the level. That makes it 1-3 and a NICE reaction
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  • #157,182
  • Sep 20, 2022 8:44am Sep 20, 2022 8:44am
9/14 - hi - .0023 low - .9957
9/15 - hi - .0018 low - .9957
9/16 - hi - .0036 low - .9944 (ECB inflation announcement was a nothing burger)
9/19 - hi - .0029 low - .9966
9/20 - hi - .0051 low - .9955 (so far)

You can't get more range bound than that. It is hard to imagine what development would take price action outside of this range before tomorrow's Fed Interest rate announcement.

Right now I am long with the view that pa will range back up to ~ .0035 - .005. I'll bail out in that zone and keep powder dry until after Fed announcement.

Completely armchair prediction for range breakout after Fed: down. Surprise bad US inflation number from 9/13 reaffirmed downward pressure. It would seem very difficult for Fed's interest rate hike to be less than .75 given the chairman's repeated hawkish statements, but 1.00 became slightly more possible. No significant positive catalysts in Europe. Price is still above the mid-line of 7-month downward channel on the daily, while MACD is below zero and now in its sixth day of a negative rollover. All of this looks to me to represent much more room technically for movement to the downside than to rally upwards. Price has been trying to keep its claws on the parity shelf for a month now, but the grip is weakening. No one can know when that grip will finally fail, but I'll be staking my resources on that outcome rather than the alternative.

Good trading to you all and may you have solid reasons behind your positions.
  • #157,183
  • Sep 20, 2022 9:00am Sep 20, 2022 9:00am
the rubber band is a titan of honesty
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always shorting eu All Time Profit: $1,476
  • #157,184
  • Sep 20, 2022 9:00am Sep 20, 2022 9:00am
things maturing so fast rather than standard pa , usdx at great resistance as we know , and doing a top range extension to retest that level again 110.40 , may 111 or 112 also possible before next tanking if standard pa again . great disaster anywhere , then it may take advantages to continue up
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #157,185
  • Edited 9:34am Sep 20, 2022 9:23am | Edited 9:34am
I underestimated the 9966 level, it bounced nicely from it.. gave the bear heat too much credit.. but 9947 buy limit was in place didn't get there.. still is possible for a re-test DB.
Looks to be the war zone (9966-9947) is a tough one for the bear to clear and breakaway from.

ps) oh, closed the short trade good for 44pips.
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Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #157,186
  • Sep 20, 2022 9:26am Sep 20, 2022 9:26am
Quoting Austyno
{quote} Target for this buy is 1.01060
All buy target edited to 1.02323. valid for today and tomorrow
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #157,187
  • Sep 20, 2022 9:53am Sep 20, 2022 9:53am
Quoting Austyno
{quote} All buy target edited to 1.02323. valid for today and tomorrow
Austyno what are you smoking? You think that there will be a positive catalyst that will move the price upward by 250 pips, blowing through the current five trading day upper bound of .005, blowing through the upper range of a seven month downward trend (.015), and then ignoring the resistance high that rejected price four times in the last month (.02)? In the next two days? Of which today doesn't count because there's slim to zero chance of major movement prior to a Fed rate announcement.

Are you expecting the Fed to lower rates?

Please offer some rationale. I am very curious to hear it.
  • #157,188
  • Sep 20, 2022 9:57am Sep 20, 2022 9:57am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Not too big ones in this range for today 0.9920 402m - posible low of todays range. 0.9975-80 265m - resistance 1.0000 823m - resistance / probably price will visit again 1.0040-50 965m - biggest - probably price will not reach here. If, it reach 1.0040/50 this should be a bonus for intraday traders.
1.0000, almost! 1.0014/19 could resist, or we'll see the bonus prize!!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #157,189
  • Sep 20, 2022 9:59am Sep 20, 2022 9:59am
Parity is now my nearest resistance.. While below it bears have the upper hand!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #157,190
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:06am Sep 20, 2022 10:06am
Quoting gmettler
{quote} Austyno what are you smoking? You think that there will be a positive catalyst that will move the price upward by 250 pips, blowing through the current five trading day upper bound of .005, blowing through the upper range of a seven month downward trend (.015), and then ignoring the resistance high that rejected price four times in the last month (.02)? In the next two days? Of which today doesn't count because there's slim to zero chance of major movement prior to a Fed rate announcement. Are you expecting the Fed to lower rates? Please...
I agree with your judgment.
I think it's unlikely to go up that way
  • #157,191
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:07am Sep 20, 2022 10:07am
Quoting gmettler
{quote} Austyno what are you smoking? You think that there will be a positive catalyst that will move the price upward by 250 pips, blowing through the current five trading day upper bound of .005, blowing through the upper range of a seven month downward trend (.015), and then ignoring the resistance high that rejected price four times in the last month (.02)? In the next two days? Of which today doesn't count because there's slim to zero chance of major movement prior to a Fed rate announcement. Are you expecting the Fed to lower rates? Please...
First thing first, I really do not care about fundamental analysis like that, every information i need is presented to me on the charts. Fundamental analysis and news are just fuels or catalyst for the market to do what it intends to do.

Secondly, on a technical perspective, on weekly, you will notice that price hasn't taken out the lows of the previous week, that means one thing and one thing only ,they intend taking out the highs of last week. Once that happens, the target will shift towards the highs of previous weeks visible. I was actually modest in my take profit because it corresponds to my target for the week. I said earlier that the real target for this week is at 1.03568,but lets take things slowly first.

Thirdly, You forgot that market moved over 200 pips on CPI day last week....anything is possible
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #157,192
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:21am Sep 20, 2022 10:21am
Quoting Austyno
{quote} anything is possible
Thanks for your reply. Anything certainly is possible. The major movement on 9/13 was because CPI blind sighted expectations to the negative. The only comparable catalyst in the next two days would be a Fed rate increase of .25 or maybe .5. Nothing else, short of an absolute black swan, will provide the kind of explosion you're targeting by the end of trading tomorrow. You can say you don't care about fundamental analysis, but those news events kinda matter, especially in the immediate term. Now if you said you were targeting 1.02323 or 1.03568 (oddly precise numbers btw) by year end, then sure, make your case. But "valid for today and tomorrow"? Ain't gonna happen.
  • #157,193
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:23am Sep 20, 2022 10:23am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} 1.0000, almost! 1.0014/19 could resist, or we'll see the bonus prize!!
Done it finally. 0.9978 can now keep the price supported until it bust eventually if, price keeps falling like that. Anyway I am marking it like, a decision point on my chart.

Bulls have chances to move at 1.0110! Lets see from here (18:23) if, they are going to pick it.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #157,194
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:31am Sep 20, 2022 10:31am
Just an IDEA
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  • #157,195
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:33am Sep 20, 2022 10:33am
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Blank and Empty
  • #157,196
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:33am Sep 20, 2022 10:33am
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  • #157,197
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:34am Sep 20, 2022 10:34am
Quoting gmettler
{quote} Thanks for your reply. Anything certainly is possible. The major movement on 9/13 was because CPI blind sighted expectations to the negative. The only comparable catalyst in the next two days would be a Fed rate increase of .25 or maybe .5. Nothing else, short of an absolute black swan, will provide the kind of explosion you're targeting by the end of trading tomorrow. You can say you don't care about fundamental analysis, but those news events kinda matter, especially in the immediate term. Now if you said you were targeting 1.02323 or...
Are you aware that i called the CPI drop and gave the precise target that market hit. everything is technical. I trade at specific levels that my trading system gives me, i really do not make those numbers up(hence the oddly precise numbers ).

Why do you think the market has been ranging since 5 days now, a breakout will be brutal in the direction of the breakout, so i wont be surprised if it happens tomorrow or till end of week, it doesn't matter as long as i ride the breakout...who cares
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #157,198
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:37am Sep 20, 2022 10:37am
Quoting andvk74
{image}
My initial idea at first but that would mean taking out the lows of last week
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #157,199
  • Edited 10:51am Sep 20, 2022 10:38am | Edited 10:51am
I do not know if it is very important but Lagerde will have a speech at about 80 minutes. Maybe this helped the strong bounce of Euro.
  • #157,200
  • Sep 20, 2022 10:38am Sep 20, 2022 10:38am
EU shorts for today:
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"Exchange of hands"
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99karian