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1M Price Action System

  • Linked: I am ICT | Demo Account XXXXXX40 Starting Nov 12, 2021
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  • #4,941
  • Sep 4, 2022 4:40am Sep 4, 2022 4:40am
Great thread Bilal, i subscribed. Kemi sent me the es tweet he posted, ie sellside 4017.75. Great call, i was short at the time at 4013 and 4015 and had a decent trade from there. Anyway i then got a twitter account to see what he posts but it seemed to be all random rants. maybe im wrong or i havent set up twitter correctly, not sure. is there any other medium to follow him on. I have some of his old videos in telegram but havent watched them in a long time. I see your doing really well with ICT and i think Gonzalo uses ICT also but he left the room, tried to call him a few weeks ago but dont think he seen my message. Anyway keep this thread going pal i love it. also share in room whenever you like
  • #4,942
  • Sep 5, 2022 7:37am Sep 5, 2022 7:37am
Quoting Jolita
Hi Bilal, What an amazing thread / journal you got here, only realised now it is yours! Subscribed. Thanks a lot for sharing all informative material, technique and strategy. All the best for you!
Quoting T721
Great thread Bilal,. Anyway keep this thread going pal i love it. also share in room whenever you like
Thank you guys for the kind words. All the best to you too

regards
Bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #4,943
  • Sep 6, 2022 2:27am Sep 6, 2022 2:27am
Gold short tp 1709
  • #4,944
  • Sep 6, 2022 10:28am Sep 6, 2022 10:28am
gold short
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cut your losses short and let your profit run
  • #4,945
  • Sep 6, 2022 11:35am Sep 6, 2022 11:35am
Quoting bleeze
gold short {image}
Why that FVGap and not the FVG beneath the Pin - ish bar touching top horizontal line and the bar that is two bars from its' left ( Thus First bar on its' left is the actual Gap) ?
Break of market structure prior to your FVGap ( pinky/purple rectangle) maybe?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,946
  • Sep 7, 2022 12:29pm Sep 7, 2022 12:29pm
shorting gold at 1716.50, lets see keeping SL at 1717.50
"Exchange of hands"
  • #4,947
  • Sep 7, 2022 2:44pm Sep 7, 2022 2:44pm
Break of market structure then price mitigated the FVG
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  • #4,948
  • Sep 9, 2022 8:38am Sep 9, 2022 8:38am
I am amazed that how perfect FVG's work
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  • #4,949
  • Sep 9, 2022 8:50am Sep 9, 2022 8:50am
what will happen now
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Swing Trader
  • #4,950
  • Edited 10:31am Sep 12, 2022 10:08am | Edited 10:31am
What a nice sellside liquidity pool down there @ gold.
Will be intresting to see if it wants to get there in the following Week(s).
I really like the exhausting pushes (1,2,3,4) taking liquidity on 1H and constantly tricking buyers in & taking buystops out, but not really going anywhere.

gold Weekly
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gold 1H
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  • #4,951
  • Edited 10:58am Sep 12, 2022 10:37am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting ChrissK
Gold nice liquidity pool down there. Will be intresting to see if it wants to get there in the following Week(s). I really like the exhausting pushes (1,2,3,4) taking liquidity on 1H and constantly tricking buyers in but not really going anywhere. gold Weekly {image} gold 1H {image} {image}
Hi ChrissK

Just to share that ICT and Larry Williams both follow the commercials, however, the whole internet world follows non-commercials strange, i don't have an answer but i trust these people more so for me Commercials it is.

Current report published on this 9th of Sep is till the data up to Tuesday only i.e., 6th of Sep. report where Commercials are long.
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Note: We can easily ignore a COT report when any significant news comes after Tuesday i.e., between Wednesday till Friday which can heavily change the COT report.

By the way Nice charting as always, and thanks for sharing

Overall still bearish:
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #4,952
  • Edited 12:20pm Sep 12, 2022 11:48am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi ChrissK Just to share that ICT and Larry Williams both follow the commercials, however, the whole internet world follows non-commercials strange, i don't have an answer but i trust these people more so for me Commercials it is. Current report published on this 9th of Sep is till the data up to Tuesday only i.e., 6th of Sep. report where Commercials are long. {image} Note: We can easily ignore a COT report when any significant news comes after Tuesday i.e., between Wednesday till Friday which can heavily change the COT report. By the way...

Heyho,
Thanks for reply!
I will do my research again. So far from my understanding is that the Central Banks are Non commercial and they have the most impact on price delivery (or their algos), but ofcourse I might be wrong. I looked some historical data reports combined with charts and this one seemed be the most logical.
Also gotta keep in mind that they can add the positions on right after the report also. Red news can definetly set something nice up too so people can "blame" the news while its already counted in.
Edit: Also It made more sense that "retail" will see this big liqpool as "strong support" so they will be the ones adding "buy" positions on that area and Im looking to do the opposite what the "crowd" does. I view this pump through Asia, London & NY on Monday really suspicious, will be very curious to see how the rest of the week plays out. Hopefully Monday will be the high of the week for gold.

Gold M1 MSS on NYPM offered nice entry, really nice clean price action, rejecting & working that OB + gap nicely after trapping higher timeframe traders again (x5).
Hopefully this bad boy runs the higher timeframe sellside off, well see.

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  • #4,953
  • Edited 4:13pm Sep 12, 2022 3:41pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting ChrissK
{quote} Heyho, Thanks for reply! I will do my research again. So far from my understanding is that the Central Banks are Non commercial and they have the most impact on price delivery (or their algos), but ofcourse I might be wrong. I looked some historical data reports combined with charts and this one seemed be the most logical. Also gotta keep in mind that they can add the positions on right after the report also. Red news can definetly set something nice up too so people can "blame" the news while its already counted in. Edit: Also It made more...
NY PM session offered more range today than NY AM session.
Pretty sure they locked in the high of the week also for gold as of Monday, only time will tell.

Price delivery at its finest,
gold M1 buyside - sellside.

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  • #4,954
  • Sep 12, 2022 11:48pm Sep 12, 2022 11:48pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Mate i am good thank you, hope you are doing well too. Yes, please watch on Youtube - ICT Mentorship 2022 lessons, and learn directly from the source i.e., Michael aka ICT... it will take a few months to catchup. Good luck regards bilal
Hello, Bilal, I noticed that you modified # 1's post on August 27. Should I learn your strategy by following the steps in your # 1 post or by going to the source as you said in this post? thank you!
  • #4,955
  • Sep 13, 2022 3:25am Sep 13, 2022 3:25am
DXY M3 potential power of 3 for the day,
Using open gaps as SR.
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  • #4,956
  • Edited 6:42am Sep 13, 2022 3:54am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting ChrissK
DXY M3 potential power of 3 for the day, Using open gaps as SR. {image}
Used the opposite idea for gold to get shrots in,
but DXY already dropped lower (which makes SMT with gold - so gold should make HH-s which it did) and DXY violated the idea and didnt take off during London as I expected (so partials/most size should be taken off from gold shorts).

gold M15
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gold M1
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Runner already stopped out with BE. Shows again that partials are key (especially when lower timeframe structure changes back) - secure most or atleast some profits even if wrong about the original idea!
Few gaps left upside that can get filled as well to match the correlation with DXY.
Potential reentry after NY red news, well see what it offers.
  • #4,957
  • Sep 13, 2022 7:19am Sep 13, 2022 7:19am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi ChrissK Just to share that ICT and Larry Williams both follow the commercials, however, the whole internet world follows non-commercials strange, i don't have an answer but i trust these people more so for me Commercials it is. Current report published on this 9th of Sep is till the data up to Tuesday only i.e., 6th of Sep. report where Commercials are long. {image} Note: We can easily ignore a COT report when any significant news comes after Tuesday i.e., between Wednesday till Friday which can heavily change the COT report. By the way...

I like what you do here, Bilal.
Thanks for that!

With COT, we must follow over-all trend. Not just last report.

Pay attention to how are longs and shorts distributed. That's why we need over-all picture.

Currently there's a lot of longs, lows are being protected.
Once we see decrease in positions (means closing longs (shorting market)/ adding shorts), market should take those weak lows and continue lower.

Let's react, not predict.
Wait for price to return into Premium of the Dealing Range and look for Sell Model.
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  • #4,958
  • Edited 10:18am Sep 13, 2022 8:04am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting fintrader
{quote} I like what you do here, Bilal. Thanks for that! With COT, we must follow over-all trend. Not just last report. Pay attention to how are longs and shorts distributed. That's why we need over-all picture. Currently there's a lot of longs, lows are being protected. Once we see decrease in positions (means closing longs (shorting market)/ adding shorts), market should take those weak lows and continue lower. Let's react, not predict. Wait for price to return into Premium of the Dealing Range and look for Sell Model. {image}

It was in premium (clear wick rejections) already long enough and most of the move is done now too.
No need to "predict" anything, see the reaction & entry confluences after key lows/highs get taken, target opposite side lows/highs and there ya go!
If theres no clear rejection/lower timeframe model then theres no entry as simple as it is.
Cot report should be viewed as just one of the confluences (small piece of the puzzle if any) and from my understanding You wanna see the buyside taken off first still if anticipating shorts along with the report data. If the Weekly (alot of $$) gets taken off with such a reaction - see yesterday lower timeframe then You can easily target the Previous Week low back down especially if at Premium already.
Price already worked the highs off yesterday at the Premium with these exhausting "weak" pushes as mentioned - see Daily chart dealing range and now confirmed swing high after news. Otherwise I wouldnt even post it if I didnt see the Daily & Weekly already in a good place to begin with the bigger drop.

gold daily premium/discount
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gold 1H filled the imbalance after yesterdays drop and reached a few targets already - Now waiting for the imbalance rebalance after news. 150pips dropped in less than a second and rest followed through. Most of the "predicted" move is already done, so no point chasing shorts at Low of the week. Will wait when it gets balanced out and maybe can even take retracement leg back up.
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(same MSS that Im using to enter on lower timeframe but this one presents itself on higher timeframe - 1H as market is fractal)


DXY 1H confirming the power of 3, dropped a bit more than expected (Weekly low out $$) but finally took off & confirmed the gold bearish sentiment.
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  • #4,959
  • Sep 13, 2022 8:30am Sep 13, 2022 8:30am
Quoting ChrissK
What a nice sellside liquidity pool down there @ gold. Will be intresting to see if it wants to get there in the following Week(s). I really like the exhausting pushes (1,2,3,4) taking liquidity on 1H and constantly tricking buyers in & taking buystops out, but not really going anywhere. gold Weekly {image} gold 1H {image} {image}


Your analysis was awesome. I just missed it anyway. Keep giving this type of analysis, it will help us a lot to under stand the market movement in a different angle.
  • #4,960
  • Sep 13, 2022 10:53am Sep 13, 2022 10:53am
Quoting fintrader
{quote} I like what you do here, Bilal. Thanks for that! With COT, we must follow over-all trend. Not just last report. Pay attention to how are longs and shorts distributed. That's why we need over-all picture. Currently there's a lot of longs, lows are being protected. Once we see decrease in positions (means closing longs (shorting market)/ adding shorts), market should take those weak lows and continue lower. Let's react, not predict. Wait for price to return into Premium of the Dealing Range and look for Sell Model. {image}
Wow, that's amazing of you to post a COT chart and valuable markings!

thank you
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
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