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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #85,881
  • Sep 6, 2022 9:16am Sep 6, 2022 9:16am
Quoting Vincent1
{image}
Update
I think we are in a good area of supply, ready to sell (long term, monthly chart)

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  • #85,882
  • Sep 6, 2022 9:53am Sep 6, 2022 9:53am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} i will scale in more long positions after daily closes above 140 tomorrow, maybe even after the NFP report, if it is strong my ideal bullish target is 143.4, but there could be pull-backs {image}
almost at 143.4, but there could be a pull-back in the near term and then a bullish trend towards 147.6
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,883
  • Sep 6, 2022 10:00am Sep 6, 2022 10:00am
keep buying dips until intervention happens, when bulls all go bankrupt due to a crash

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...296_story.html

5. Could the government intervene?

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki hasn’t hinted at direct intervention in the currency market as an imminent possibility. If the government did step into markets to strengthen the yen, it would be the first time since 1998, when it and the US joined in a massive, coordinated yen-buying spree. Suzuki and other officials are hoping verbal warnings will be enough to slow the current slide of the yen. With the US focused on battling inflation and the yen’s weakness so closely linked to Japanese monetary policy, a joint intervention with the US faces a high bar. Unilateral interventions to prop up the yen in the past proved largely ineffective.
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,884
  • Sep 6, 2022 10:32am Sep 6, 2022 10:32am
Quoting ForexGoose
keep buying dips until intervention happens, when bulls all go bankrupt due to a crash https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...296_story.html 5. Could the government intervene? Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki hasn’t hinted at direct intervention in the currency market as an imminent possibility. If the government did step into markets to strengthen the yen, it would be the first time since 1998, when it and the US joined in a massive,...
No dips to buy.
  • #85,885
  • Sep 6, 2022 11:45am Sep 6, 2022 11:45am
Quoting ForexGoose
keep buying dips until intervention happens, when bulls all go bankrupt due to a crash https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...296_story.html 5. Could the government intervene? Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki hasn’t hinted at direct intervention in the currency market as an imminent possibility. If the government did step into markets to strengthen the yen, it would be the first time since 1998, when it and the US joined in a...

Just to clarify, the BOJ has intervene in the market quite often after 1998. So 1998 was not the last time.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/histo...082044726.html


January 1999 to April 2000 - Bank of Japan sells yen at least 18 times, including once via the Federal Reserve and once via the European Central Bank, due to worries a strong yen will choke off an economic recovery. Yen continues to strengthen.

Sept 2001 - Bank of Japan intervenes to sell yen after the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States. The ECB and New York Federal Reserve both operate on behalf of the BOJ.

May-June, 2002 - Bank of Japan intervenes to sell yen, often supported by the Federal Reserve and ECB. The yen continues to gain.

March 2004 - The end of a 15-month campaign to curb the yen's rise in which Japan spends a total of 35 trillion yen, or more than $300 billion, on intervention.

Sept. 15, 2010 - Japan intervenes in the currency market for the first time in six years, selling yen to stem a rise in the currency after the dollar hits a 15-year-low at 82.87 yen.

March 18, 2011 - G7 nations jointly intervene to stem yen strength when the currency spikes to a record high in the aftermath of a massive earthquake, on speculation that Japanese firms would repatriate foreign assets to pay for reconstruction.

Aug and Oct - 2011 - Japan intervenes to curb gains that officials fear threaten to derail recovery from an economic slump triggered by the March earthquake and tsunami.
  • #85,886
  • Sep 6, 2022 12:27pm Sep 6, 2022 12:27pm
Fast rising US yield rates combined with current inverted yield curve seems bearish for all markets. And if interest rate continue to get out of control, I believe JPY should gains some strength. JPY always been safe haven in forex trading during panic and crashes. Shorting USD/JPY currently from 142.90.
  • #85,887
  • Sep 6, 2022 12:36pm Sep 6, 2022 12:36pm
First time since 2007 that short-term yields are higher than long-term yields (inverted yield curve) The debt market is very volatile and bearish at the moment in my view.
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  • #85,888
  • Sep 6, 2022 1:11pm Sep 6, 2022 1:11pm
Quoting Lekkim
First time since 2007 that short-term yields are higher than long-term yields (inverted yield curve) The debt market is very volatile and bearish at the moment in my view. {image}
how high can ujpy go
  • #85,889
  • Sep 6, 2022 1:19pm Sep 6, 2022 1:19pm
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} how high can ujpy go
Until the debt bubble pops, the real estate and stock market should be under pressure with these kind of interest rates already also. Good luck paying off your debts USA, just sayin', hehe
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  • #85,890
  • Sep 6, 2022 1:20pm Sep 6, 2022 1:20pm
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} how high can ujpy go
145 easily.
but i will not sell it before real wind down and daily consolidation
  • #85,891
  • Sep 6, 2022 1:42pm Sep 6, 2022 1:42pm
Almost maxed out my yen and gold longs, let's see 142.60 before end of day.
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  • #85,892
  • Sep 6, 2022 1:52pm Sep 6, 2022 1:52pm
Quoting Whale
{quote} 145 easily. but i will not sell it before real wind down and daily consolidation
how you get they number
  • #85,893
  • Sep 6, 2022 4:55pm Sep 6, 2022 4:55pm
All eyes on the USDJPY tonight. Expecting volatility.
  • #85,894
  • Sep 6, 2022 5:50pm Sep 6, 2022 5:50pm
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} how you get they number
Ignore my number, i didnt measure it well thorough my phone app.

But i will not going to short it anyway.
The BOJ must say something about new policy that include rate hikes.
  • #85,895
  • Sep 6, 2022 6:06pm Sep 6, 2022 6:06pm
80 pips volatility in these hours is not everyday, hope for downside soon, haist
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  • #85,896
  • Sep 6, 2022 8:18pm Sep 6, 2022 8:18pm
Quoting Whale
{quote} The BOJ must say something about new policy that include rate hikes.
The Yen's depreciation against the Dollar has been unrelenting as the yield gap between the US and Japan continues to widen.

The BOJ may finally begin to feel some pressure to pivot with the Yen currently on track for its worst year on record. After month's of insisting on ultra-easy monetary policy, even a slight shift in tone could spark some sort of retracement in USD/JPY.

However, should the BOJ continue to hold their stance, the pair could continue surge higher as the yield gap between the US and Japan widens.

All trading carries risk.
  • #85,897
  • Sep 6, 2022 9:34pm Sep 6, 2022 9:34pm
Quoting CityIndex
{quote} The Yen's depreciation against the Dollar has been unrelenting as the yield gap between the US and Japan continues to widen. The BOJ may finally begin to feel some pressure to pivot with the Yen currently on track for its worst year on record. After month's of insisting on ultra-easy monetary policy, even a slight shift in tone could spark some sort of retracement in USD/JPY. However, should the BOJ continue to hold their stance, the pair could continue surge higher as the yield gap between the US and Japan widens. All trading carries risk....
BOJ will do something about it, the big question is when - will see UJ @ 160 - 180 before they decide to take decisive intervention?
  • #85,898
  • Sep 6, 2022 10:40pm Sep 6, 2022 10:40pm
147.63 was the high back in 1998 before the BOJ and Fed intervened so I'd definitely watch for that level.
  • #85,899
  • Sep 6, 2022 11:04pm Sep 6, 2022 11:04pm
Quoting dreeamer87
{quote} BOJ will do something about it, the big question is when - will see UJ @ 160 - 180 before they decide to take decisive intervention?
UJ finally at the 144 handle with USD rallying during the Asian session today, and the BOJ has stating they will ramp up its JGB purchases with the country's 10-year yield approaching the upper limit of the target range. Interesting to see whether or not this move holds as, and if 145 is in sight, as European and US traders comes online.
  • #85,900
  • Sep 7, 2022 12:09am Sep 7, 2022 12:09am
Say hi, I wanted to.

Hi.
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