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  • #155,801
  • Sep 1, 2022 4:18pm Sep 1, 2022 4:18pm
Quoting Konichiwhaat
2/20 - Today I watch 9972 and 9902 for action
In addition, 9954 is historically strong, just above. This may be good too
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #155,802
  • Sep 1, 2022 5:09pm Sep 1, 2022 5:09pm
Critical August jobs report is expected to get hot and that could lead to a more aggressive Fed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/jobs...ssive-fed.html
"No pain no gain"
  • #155,803
  • Sep 1, 2022 5:40pm Sep 1, 2022 5:40pm
Quoting fontu
{quote} may do after a low and new lows even .anyways todays most important level to deal is 9990, low may try respect 9983 , daily close perfect 9987 to bounce , or just fail smooth to the low and new lows this week, pa has good interest breaks the 9968 still intact and was supposed breaks down to up comfort , failed allegedly and only crazy ran to die apparently.. so looks only a last leg up try to fall most probable scenarios now . lets give a clap to bull to keep afloat ! take care {image}
You have so many lines on the chart... you probably need to. Level 0.9900 was held, but the figure was broken. The bulls are on the defensive. Now a new era has begun, when the usd is more expensive than the eur.
  • #155,804
  • Sep 1, 2022 7:01pm Sep 1, 2022 7:01pm
3/20 - I will short here
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #155,805
  • Edited 8:57pm Sep 1, 2022 8:42pm | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting JBRolim
Price is trying to hold fibo 127 {image} {image}
This h4 may try continue correct while limit h4 tf 0007 and In smaller tf limits go 9972, 85 and 0024, pullback or bullback. It continue correct overnight without having bottom test should easily frigile and bear continue. Daily not close exact 9941, so consciously maintaining bear intention! Lets see
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #155,806
  • Edited 9:59pm Sep 1, 2022 8:55pm | Edited 9:59pm
Quoting Marekus
{quote} You have so many lines on the chart... you probably need to. Level 0.9900 was held, but the figure was broken. The bulls are on the defensive. Now a new era has begun, when the usd is more expensive than the eur.
Yeah all broken and perfect but not enough, virtually bottom tested already but not retested yet or bear continue and so game not over yet though below 9971 was a bear territory, still enough pullback /bullback possible, market likely decide today.. Best option left for market looks bear continue and bottom formation next week to ready for offensive onwards, good correction up. If still not ready for then kill some week arrounds mostly ranging ! Lets see.
Usdx should be in upper hand now till arrounds 110 target but at a great resistant too playing and will not give all credits to it, others too weak to deal just! A top failure mode may anytime back for usdx and there great recession fear may lead to phobia to panic even!
Watching and waiting for 9953 and 31 breaks down for a bottom play next h4.
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #155,807
  • Sep 1, 2022 10:43pm Sep 1, 2022 10:43pm
All trends of supports broken last night, new trends tell a stronger bearish tendency. But I wonder if it gonna be a stronger bullback in the early Sep and then fluctuates until it's close to Fed Funds Rate rise.
  • #155,808
  • Sep 1, 2022 11:24pm Sep 1, 2022 11:24pm
Friday the NFP day.

Price is directionless after yesterday's upbeat ISM manufacturing PMI.

Previously, I showed the Wyckoff distribution trend, which jad played out from 14 July to 22 Aug 2022.
This time, I believe the new Wyckoff accumulation trend has emerged, since 18 August (big area in white).
If that is the case, I expect the trend to continue until end of September.

Judging from the trend that has already unfold, we're likely in phase B. That means a "spring" low is incoming, likely before the Fed meeting. Let's put that imaginary price at 0.98888.

Now, the probability of a 75 bps Fed hike has risen to 74% this morning.
Scenarios are: (1) Fed hikes 75 bps, expectation met, market sells the dollar, (2) Fed hikes 50 bps, expectation unmet, market sells the dollar.
The only way market will buy the dollar is if Fed unexpectedly hikes by 100 bps. What is chance of that? Probably low, right?

Stay safe and have a nice weekend.
Cheers,
Cat
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  • #155,809
  • Sep 1, 2022 11:29pm Sep 1, 2022 11:29pm
Depending on how the non-farm payrolls turn out, there may be new directional impulses for the currency pair. On the downside, 0.9900 is considered a sell trigger. If this mark is undercut, only the support at USD 0.9879 would face a deep fall to USD 0.9725. However, if the euro can appreciate, the first buy signals would appear with a re-break of the USD 1 mark. 1.0023 – 1.0029 and 1.0046 – 1.0055 USD would then represent possible target areas.
carpe noctem
  • #155,810
  • Sep 1, 2022 11:29pm Sep 1, 2022 11:29pm
I am focusing on this and weekly range fibos. Vol is 76 pips after the drop.

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #155,811
  • Sep 1, 2022 11:33pm Sep 1, 2022 11:33pm
Quoting cchin
Friday the NFP day. Price is directionless after yesterday's upbeat ISM manufacturing PMI. Previously, I showed the Wyckoff distribution trend, which jad played out from 14 July to 22 Aug 2022. This time, I believe the new Wyckoff accumulation trend has emerged, since 18 August (big area in white). If that is the case, I expect the trend to continue until end of September. Judging from the trend that has already unfold, we're likely in phase B. That means a "spring" low is incoming, likely before the Fed meeting. Let's put that imaginary price at...
Hi Bro, i'm amazed with your calmness, i'm thinking that this pair is very hard to reach 1.04 but you're still holding long till now.
what if , just if , the price will never reach above parity for long term let say between 1.01 - 1.02? will you still hold even if it's carry on its crazy drop to 0.95 - 0.96?
  • #155,812
  • Sep 1, 2022 11:40pm Sep 1, 2022 11:40pm
To all the bulls, You will be rewarded greatly if the ECB raises rates to 75bps and with 50BPS maybe not greatly. And the rewards liley be end @1.04 - 1.05
  • #155,813
  • Sep 1, 2022 11:48pm Sep 1, 2022 11:48pm
Quoting Traderview
To all the bulls, You will be rewarded greatly if the ECB raises rates to 75bps and with 50BPS maybe not greatly. And the rewards liley be end @1.04 - 1.05
Priced in already.
  • #155,814
  • Sep 1, 2022 11:54pm Sep 1, 2022 11:54pm
Get Ready for Super Bull, Start at 0.9981
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #155,815
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:00am Sep 2, 2022 12:00am
Quoting Traderview
To all the bulls, You will be rewarded greatly if the ECB raises rates to 75bps and with 50BPS maybe not greatly. And the rewards liley be end @1.04 - 1.05
But the rates markets already prices 75 BP by nearly 100%, so it is set to happen.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #155,816
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:01am Sep 2, 2022 12:01am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Exactly... This level is probably busted and later it is likely to become a pain in the neck level for bulls... Time will tell.. *If I am wrong, and this level keeps supporting, so be it... I don't mind...
As mentioned yesterday, now we are inside the minutes of retesting yesterday's support: 0.9980.. A bounce down is likely!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #155,817
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:03am Sep 2, 2022 12:03am
Quoting investing101
{quote} Priced in already.
50 bps is a drag... maybe for a short period it could go up to 1.02 until FED and after that it'll go down below parity and it'll cause likelihood of end the year below 0.97
  • #155,818
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:10am Sep 2, 2022 12:10am
Good morning, hope you are great. I think 0.9979 can be a good resistance for today. Looking forward for the bears to show up;
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  • #155,819
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:16am Sep 2, 2022 12:16am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} But the rates markets already prices 75 BP by nearly 100%, so it is set to happen.
yes. high probabilty but the language and tone in moving forward will determine the trend.

After all, a good news from ukraine is the key for EURO.
  • #155,820
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:23am Sep 2, 2022 12:23am
Wow.. Breaking above 0.9980 was quicker and easier than I thought... I switch back to bullish, because this makes me think that the most recent drop actually was fake...

In that regard, I will try to buy dips once NFP volatility starts...
Focus only on what truly matters!
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