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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #85,841
  • Aug 29, 2022 11:22pm Aug 29, 2022 11:22pm
Quoting Whale
{quote} Definitely? will see. below 135 before 137. but nothing is definitely.
Already 139. Soon there will be 140 and possibly even higher... )
  • #85,842
  • Aug 29, 2022 11:29pm Aug 29, 2022 11:29pm
Quoting RichClaws
{quote} Already 139. Soon there will be 140 and possibly even higher... )
made a mistake.
I’m a technical analyst, JPY is total shit ATM and impossible to analyze it from my point of view.
if you do, good luck, I hope you will succeed
  • #85,843
  • Aug 29, 2022 11:40pm Aug 29, 2022 11:40pm
Quoting Whale
{quote} made a mistake. I’m a technical analyst, JPY is total shit ATM and impossible to analyze it from my point of view. if you do, good luck, I hope you will succeed
Thanks) I also rely on technical analysis.
In this case, my conclusions are based on working out the classic inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe.
  • #85,844
  • Aug 29, 2022 11:49pm Aug 29, 2022 11:49pm
Im waiting with pendings shorts from 139 till 139.50 with SL for all 140.50, will be targeting medium term 135
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,845
  • Aug 29, 2022 11:49pm Aug 29, 2022 11:49pm
Quoting RichClaws
{quote} Thanks) I also rely on technical analysis. In this case, my conclusions are based on working out the classic inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe.
I’m using market structure and price action , and my setups on AJ and UJ failed time after time.
so I will wait for some news from japan that will increase the demand for yen, I had enough SL with this boy
  • #85,846
  • Aug 30, 2022 12:20am Aug 30, 2022 12:20am
Quoting Whale
{quote} I’m using market structure and price action , and my setups on AJ and UJ failed time after time. so I will wait for some news from japan that will increase the demand for yen, I had enough SL with this boy
In such a situation, one should rather wait for news that will reduce demand for the US dollar. Against the backdrop of fundamental factors, it is the usd that is growing throughout the market.
  • #85,847
  • Aug 30, 2022 1:42am Aug 30, 2022 1:42am
This is my view for this UJ, likely heading to 140 + make a bit spike then going downwards since the yellow trend line is pretty strong.
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  • #85,848
  • Aug 30, 2022 2:25am Aug 30, 2022 2:25am
Making an entry at 138.400 area heading to 139 ++ and back down
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  • #85,849
  • Aug 30, 2022 10:54am Aug 30, 2022 10:54am
missed the bearish shark on the 15 min chart.
  • #85,850
  • Aug 30, 2022 2:24pm Aug 30, 2022 2:24pm
Quoting Whale
{quote} I’m using market structure and price action , and my setups on AJ and UJ failed time after time. so I will wait for some news from japan that will increase the demand for yen, I had enough SL with this boy

Head and shoulders patterns are IMO rudimentary at best. FYI.. the Head and shoulders pattern is just a consolidation pattern off of a wave 5 high being confirmed. However in Elliot waves the confirmation comes at the shoulder and not the neck. All I am saying is that I have lose a LOT of money trying to trade head and shoulders. They appear everywhere.. Then the head becomes a shoulder and the shoulder becomes a head.. arrrrgh. If you are consistent with head and shoulders patterns you are a GOD.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,851
  • Aug 31, 2022 12:41am Aug 31, 2022 12:41am
Failure to make a new high this month (coming within about 30 pips) while still being in a LL/LH formation on the monthly candle could result in a substantial sell off if it doesn't at least break through 139.50 before tomorrow (months end). However, if it convincingly breaks through 139.50 and then 140 (especially if this occurs after tomorrow and once a new candle has printed) I'll no longer be looking for shorts.
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  • #85,852
  • Aug 31, 2022 12:51pm Aug 31, 2022 12:51pm
As Bearish as this UJ appears....


Bitcoin
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With that said though. The Yen looks to have awakened a bit. Albeit not having hit the 100% extension. So it looks to be offering some reprieve.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,853
  • Aug 31, 2022 1:29pm Aug 31, 2022 1:29pm
Bears???

Daily charts

UJ Flat past two days
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DXY On the move south slightly
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YEN Flat past two days.
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So it appears we are still being moved by the Yen, and not the Dollar. Perhaps that's why we aren't rocketing around on the news.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,854
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:24pm Aug 31, 2022 11:24pm
BUY UJ Only
  • #85,855
  • Sep 1, 2022 12:01am Sep 1, 2022 12:01am
Quoting adityaghifar
This is my view for this UJ, likely heading to 140 + make a bit spike then going downwards since the yellow trend line is pretty strong. {image}
My analysis and forecast is similar to yours. It is alarming that most people see it the same way. But it seems that 140 cannot be avoided
  • #85,856
  • Sep 1, 2022 12:17am Sep 1, 2022 12:17am
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  • #85,857
  • Sep 1, 2022 12:20am Sep 1, 2022 12:20am
Quoting ScalaFX
Im waiting with pendings shorts from 139 till 139.50 with SL for all 140.50, will be targeting medium term 135
Active
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,858
  • Sep 1, 2022 12:30am Sep 1, 2022 12:30am
Given USDJPY's strong positive correlation to US bond yields, today's US ISM manufacturing figures, and the NFP report on Friday, could play a key role in how the pair interacts with the major psychological level of 140.

Following Chair Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, and the Fed's data-driven approach to monetary policy, strong US economic data could fuel a breakout beyond this level as markets price-in a greater likelihood for another 75bps rate hike at the September FOMC Meeting. However, weaker-than-expected results may spark a pullback in USD and help the Yen pare some its losses.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how this develops heading into the end of the trading week.
  • #85,859
  • Sep 1, 2022 12:43am Sep 1, 2022 12:43am
Quoting PatienceFx
{image}
Hey Patience, that's a good spread right there. Do you mind if I ask which broker you use?
  • #85,860
  • Sep 1, 2022 12:48am Sep 1, 2022 12:48am
Quoting ICouldBWrong
{quote} Hey Patience, that's a good spread right there. Do you mind if I ask which broker you use?
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