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EURUSD only

  • #155,081
  • Aug 23, 2022 10:43pm Aug 23, 2022 10:43pm
Good day, EU doesn't like the upside yet!

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #155,082
  • Aug 23, 2022 10:48pm Aug 23, 2022 10:48pm
Good morning folks. This is both an S/R zone and a stop-hunt zone. Out most it. @BE
Good day everyone.
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Swing Trader
  • #155,083
  • Aug 23, 2022 10:50pm Aug 23, 2022 10:50pm
This time I'm sticking to my strategy and not trading until NY session. Don't wanna fall a victim to London manipulation yet again. Enough is enough.
  • #155,084
  • Aug 23, 2022 10:51pm Aug 23, 2022 10:51pm
BİG PHOTO... 4H

This is probably the fake breakout
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Swing Trader
  • #155,085
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:01pm Aug 23, 2022 11:01pm
Quoting Traderview
{image}
I shared it on Monday but i don't think anyone noticed it.
Anyway Here is before and After
Check how the price reacted almost exactly the PA i've mentioned.
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  • #155,086
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:15pm Aug 23, 2022 11:15pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} GREAT FREAKING QUESTION!!! But seriously it depends on your trading style - day, days, weeks, months? Personally day-to-day I could care less. In the past when I would wake up I would ask myself is this a bear or bull day. When I initially look at my charts I look at the daily and see how much of the ADR is left for the NY session. Trading off of daily charts gives a different perspective than trading off 15/5/2 minute charts. For example I "believe" that most people would say that EUR is in a bear market. So it opened today at 0.9941. Now...
Well said fxsport, volatility is our friend and when it is bigger then, we can have more oportunities and chances of profitable trading.

This is the reason I don't like buying EU, volatily slows when it is going up these days and grows when its falling. It can happen otherwise, but it didn't happened yesterday, or will not happen the next days. Only when the tide turn above a significant level - around 1.0200, but this may change.

Yesterday it was 74 pips, but today is 3 pips less - 71 and that because we had the upside move that drained money out of EURUSD.

Price can move above/below 71 pips, but this is the way I see volatility and how I understand the market.

Now I'll get back to trading, sorry for the lesson style of my post in some of my writings I had to base the fact


Green pips!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #155,087
  • Edited Aug 24, 2022 12:26am Aug 23, 2022 11:19pm | Edited Aug 24, 2022 12:26am
Too deep for a simple wave B correction... I am never surprised for these, because it was such a clumsy mean-reversion!

Anyway, I still want to believe that this drop is a wave B, BUT if any H1 candle closes below 0.9933 it would cancel my wave B idea and price probably would then continue lower... Time will tell
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #155,088
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:25pm Aug 23, 2022 11:25pm
Hi Ata, have you heard the news regarding Turkey President Erdogant want to organize meeting between Putin & Zelensky to discuss about potential negotiation peace between both of them?
if it will be happening soon, must be a good news to EU bulls.
  • #155,089
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:37pm Aug 23, 2022 11:37pm
Go my wonderful bears! And bring me the pips!
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #155,090
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:43pm Aug 23, 2022 11:43pm
Quoting RCtrader
Go my wonderful bears! And bring me the pips!
i think it's a bear trap. today is bullish for EU just like yesterday..
just my simple toughts..
  • #155,091
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:52pm Aug 23, 2022 11:52pm
Went short @ 0.9944
TP 20 Pips and SL 20 Pips

Gonna give London one last try.
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  • #155,092
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:52pm Aug 23, 2022 11:52pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
To deep for a simple wave B correction... I am never surprised for these, because it was such a clumsy mean-reversion! Anyway, I still want to believe that this drop is a wave B, BUT if any H1 candle closes below 0.9933 it would cancel my wave B idea and price probably would then continue lower... Time will tell
or h4 close and hold over 9990 otherwise better close below 9923 and may tank to next 9842 or better 9607 before good correction possible .
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #155,093
  • Aug 23, 2022 11:55pm Aug 23, 2022 11:55pm
Wednesday.

Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382.
My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels.

Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions.
We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr.

  1. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022.
  2. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD reaching parity a month later in July 2022.

On Europe front, we had the German 2y/10y spread now at 0.42. Neutral to EUR.

Based on this trend, my projection is that US will likely enter recession 6 months prior to Europe.
That would allow the EURUSD to go up, while the ECB is playing catch up on interest rate rise, which will benefit the Euro, when Fed's rate progress stalls.
Both sides will plunge into recession eventually. The matter is, which side first.

Cheers,
Cat

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  • #155,094
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:17am Aug 24, 2022 12:17am
Quoting cchin
Wednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...
hi Cchin, what is your highest price of long EU you hold till now?
  • #155,095
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:17am Aug 24, 2022 12:17am
Quoting cchin
Wednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...
poor vision not seeing properly recently but seems your whole charts showing buy orders a-z ! looks accumulation . can be very fatal . take care
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #155,096
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:17am Aug 24, 2022 12:17am
Quoting cchin
Wednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...
Likely be sideways ie range bound of the PA of the yesterday's large Bull candle +/ 20 pips until Friday Jackson hole FED Speeches.

Warch out of these Boxes and PA it covers.

Don't hold on to the trades. Get in get out.
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  • #155,097
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:22am Aug 24, 2022 12:22am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Good day, EU doesn't like the upside yet! {image}
Its early yet, EU is trying to make 0.9944 a stronger support, decision point stands at 0.9962. No news until US session, but not so huge events like, yesterday. We may see a visit at 0.9974 after a break up, but I can't promise more

At the bearish view, it must get out of 0.9944 again and then and drop below 0.9936 to 0.9915/13 at least.

Slow things yet.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #155,098
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:26am Aug 24, 2022 12:26am
Quoting cchin
Wednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...
Dollar is safe heaven. It doesn't matter whether US or EU go into the recession.

You need to understand one thing, Dollars strength right now means, the demand for the paper is higher with all the flaws. It's not EU weaker it's just Dollar is Stronger irrespective of the good or bad US economic data.
  • #155,099
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:44am Aug 24, 2022 12:44am
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RedcaT 3003
25k Return This Week: na
  • #155,100
  • Aug 24, 2022 12:51am Aug 24, 2022 12:51am
Quoting redcat3003
{image}
I like your idea and have similar thoughts... In the end, sooner or later, I think bulls will show up...
Focus only on what truly matters!
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