DislikedAccording to Bloomberg, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike at its next meeting in September is back to 70% even as inflation slows. {image}Ignored
Another day, another dollar.
LIVE Trades Only : EURUSD & GBPUSD 122 replies
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Eurusd-5m Trading Only 109 replies
Script to change EA to long only/ short only at a price level? 1 reply
DislikedAccording to Bloomberg, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike at its next meeting in September is back to 70% even as inflation slows. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} GREAT FREAKING QUESTION!!! But seriously it depends on your trading style - day, days, weeks, months? Personally day-to-day I could care less. In the past when I would wake up I would ask myself is this a bear or bull day. When I initially look at my charts I look at the daily and see how much of the ADR is left for the NY session. Trading off of daily charts gives a different perspective than trading off 15/5/2 minute charts. For example I "believe" that most people would say that EUR is in a bear market. So it opened today at 0.9941. Now...Ignored
DislikedTo deep for a simple wave B correction... I am never surprised for these, because it was such a clumsy mean-reversion! Anyway, I still want to believe that this drop is a wave B, BUT if any H1 candle closes below 0.9933 it would cancel my wave B idea and price probably would then continue lower... Time will tellIgnored
On Europe front, we had the German 2y/10y spread now at 0.42. Neutral to EUR.
Based on this trend, my projection is that US will likely enter recession 6 months prior to Europe.
That would allow the EURUSD to go up, while the ECB is playing catch up on interest rate rise, which will benefit the Euro, when Fed's rate progress stalls.
Both sides will plunge into recession eventually. The matter is, which side first.
Cheers,
Cat
DislikedWednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...Ignored
DislikedWednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...Ignored
DislikedWednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...Ignored
DislikedWednesday. Added two long trades overnight, at 0.99701 and 0.99382. My plan is as usual, go long whenever price dips to key levels. Let's look at the reliable indicators that predate recessions. We had 2-year US note auction yesterday, high yield at 3.3%. Not helpful to USD when 2yr yield is higher than 10yr. 2y/10y spread now at -0.24. Negative means yield curve has inversed, seen since early August 2022. 3m/10y spread now reduced to just 0.25. Very close to inversion. It was at 1.35 in June 2022 when long USD long gained traction that led to EURUSD...Ignored