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  • #13,381
  • Aug 4, 2022 12:37am Aug 4, 2022 12:37am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} like russia, us can just freeze Chinese assets, making them worthless holding us treasuries means nothing get back to trading and post your views on GBP trade today
Who are you ?
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #13,382
  • Aug 4, 2022 12:37am Aug 4, 2022 12:37am
Quoting Pat Chiko
Traders are bracing for US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s expected arrival in Taipei Tuesday to raise tension with China, with the Taiwan dollar set to extend a two-year low and the haven yen rising {image}
yen rising?
  • #13,383
  • Aug 4, 2022 12:38am Aug 4, 2022 12:38am
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  • #13,384
  • Aug 4, 2022 12:41am Aug 4, 2022 12:41am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Who are you ?
human #9076767776768989543 on planet earth [ means nobody ]
  • #13,385
  • Aug 4, 2022 12:57am Aug 4, 2022 12:57am
Quoting Whale
{quote} yen rising?
Scalping until Friday for NFP/US Unemployment Rate

UJ


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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #13,386
  • Aug 4, 2022 1:02am Aug 4, 2022 1:02am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Scalping until Friday for NFP/US Unemployment Rate UJ {image}
im waiting for JPY to rise either, im loading short for yesterday Ny session,

but of course price like to abuse me.
94 today and im done with this.

ATM avg positions is 92.73
targeting to below 90
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  • #13,387
  • Aug 4, 2022 1:55am Aug 4, 2022 1:55am
Pat I had a look at the usdjpy I am long tp 134.500
  • #13,388
  • Aug 4, 2022 2:56am Aug 4, 2022 2:56am
I had a question, Pat,

is gbpusd in correlation with gold?
  • #13,389
  • Edited 4:03am Aug 4, 2022 3:53am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting Houtbay
Pat I had a look at the usdjpy I am long tp 134.500
We are at a critical resistance level on EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY.
Was awake the whole morning waiting for Japan to give a sell but none came. They all wait for Bailey today. One thing is certain. Euro, Pound and Dollar for some reason ALWAYS go together. If one of them is falling the other two will follow immediately, vice versa. Today it is critical to see if Sell continues after a little bit more then 50% retracement was done on every pair vs JPY I mentioned or perhaps we will have yet another buy which I really didn't believe would happen ever. Lemme show you the graphs. I am currently short GBP/JPY and will add others if it confirms sell. All-in sell will that be.

163.50-70 61.8% on Fibo (GBP/JPY).

Number of remaining times banks could raise interest rates for this year:

BoE 4
RBA 4
RBNZ 3
BoC 3
ECB 3
Fed 3
BoJ 3
SNB 2

Current interest rates:

BoE - 1.25%
RBA - 1.85%
RBNZ - 2.50%
BoC - 2.50%
ECB - 0.50%
Fed - 2.50%
BoJ - -0.10%
SNB - -0.25%

Third buy on USD/JPY is very well possible. H&S pattern would be broken then however.
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  • #13,390
  • Aug 4, 2022 5:09am Aug 4, 2022 5:09am
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  • #13,391
  • Aug 4, 2022 5:10am Aug 4, 2022 5:10am
Quoting Lool
I had a question, Pat, is gbpusd in correlation with gold?
In short answer : NO

Long Answer goes like this :

You have to look at the world markets in terms of world events and not purely statistical correlation measures.
Some periods of time, two derivative prices will correlate, and others will be inversely correlated.

Behind each correlation is a model or mind set that is in play.
At this moment the mindset is flight to safety in terms of risk aversion. EU troubles, yen is in bearish stance, and usually when war breaks out and equity indices are going into the crapper.. bonds are favored, as is gold.
Oil is moving with gold. As did the CAD.

But some markets overshoot and touch resistance and backoff before others by hrs.
So you can look for evidence in those markets what others will do.
Oil looks bearish, it backed off that 93 dollar target.
Gold will soon test upward Daily SRF zone and it might not since oil backed off.

If these markets are backing off that means risk aversion trades are being closed.
Which means USD risk aversion trade, USD should be bearish as these markets backoff, but since momentary blips or spikes occur near the closest stops, even if your correct in your model.

You should wait for higher levels to place trades.

Warm Regards
Pat
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #13,392
  • Aug 4, 2022 5:18am Aug 4, 2022 5:18am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} In short answer : NO Long Answer goes like this : You have to look at the world markets in terms of world events and not purely statistical correlation measures. Some periods of time, two derivative prices will correlate, and others will be inversely correlated. Behind each correlation is a model or mind set that is in play. At this moment the mindset is flight to safety in terms of risk aversion. EU troubles, yen is in bearish stance, and usually when war breaks out and equity indices are going into the crapper.. bonds are favored, as is...
Thank you for the explanation, was confused because sometimes they moved together and sometimes they didn't. I will take note of this
  • #13,393
  • Aug 4, 2022 5:44am Aug 4, 2022 5:44am
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  • #13,394
  • Aug 4, 2022 5:45am Aug 4, 2022 5:45am
BOE Day

For those looking to trade Sterling with the BoE today, below is the low and high ranges for GBP pairs based on the overnight implied volatility.

Markets definitely pricing in vol for this event so be careful.

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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #13,395
  • Aug 4, 2022 5:48am Aug 4, 2022 5:48am
BOE Cheat Sheet
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #13,396
  • Aug 4, 2022 6:24am Aug 4, 2022 6:24am
GU

AFTER the News

Scalp a bit

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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #13,397
  • Aug 4, 2022 6:36am Aug 4, 2022 6:36am
Quoting Pat Chiko
BOE Day For those looking to trade Sterling with the BoE today, below is the low and high ranges for GBP pairs based on the overnight implied volatility. Markets definitely pricing in vol for this event so be careful. {image}
So what you are trying to indicate here, is that the prior day volatility of a data report, suggest that the market may have already priced in the economic effect (rate hike=currency appreciation), then when the data is out, reverse happens(drop) as priced-in institutional traders (longed positioners) are taking profits?
like Buy the rumor, sell the news?
Please enlighten me Bro
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #13,398
  • Aug 4, 2022 6:37am Aug 4, 2022 6:37am
GU give me a cup of coffee today.
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  • #13,399
  • Aug 4, 2022 6:39am Aug 4, 2022 6:39am
If bulls can defend 1.2060, then 1.2340 is next.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #13,400
  • Aug 4, 2022 7:26am Aug 4, 2022 7:26am
Quoting Whale
{quote} im waiting for JPY to rise either, im loading short for yesterday Ny session, but of course price like to abuse me. 94 today and im done with this. ATM avg positions is 92.73 targeting to below 90 {image}
coming close to BE, will hold it for few days

i want to see 90 RN and below.
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