USD/JPY Discussion

Last year compared to this year on the charts and pretty much all Augusts for the past 5 years. August the market consolidates. both end of 2nd quarter after interest rates have been going up. Here is what you see. Both making highs as the FED is increasing rates, mid July, early august. Mid summer cool off. lets everyone who doesn't trade forex put there feet up.

Inflation is over 8%, GDP is going down. 2 quarters/

GDP is what governments like to maintain. The world economy prefers GDP,

So GDP is shrinking, inflation is 8%. Inflation is what you need to get to get GDP up.

GDP is going down,

If GDP is going down, interest rates are at the 2% the FED has wanted, over night rates finished the week still higher. Inflation is at 8%..

You need higher inflation, to get higher inflation, you more money in circulation.

To get more money back into the US, increasing interest rates brings money back to the USA. Strong USD.

End of August we will have see consolidation with the break higher. UJ can still see further multiple lows,

Jpy is shit..
over extended drop, now in the way to overextended correction

should drop now, but it one way ticket atm.. stuck AJ shorts

As long as we do not go up past 134.2 we are going down. I am short. 134.2 is the boundary of what I believe to be a downward wave 1, and it appears we are in Wave 4. Wave 4 is not allowed to enter wave 1 or it invalidates the pattern. We are also at the height of my BOHICA barrier I drew Sunday. So far my plan is holding.

Looks like the US market wasn't ready. 10 mins to the close. Looking for the market to open up a little low... hit the resistance and continue down. I am counting the waves on the 15m. and 4hr. Both appear to be in Wave 4's and in similar patterns.

Now let's see if it retests that afternoon high. Looking at the formation though I would say no. Probably close the gap then continue down.

currently
just following monthly candles and the price action and structure in the monthly candle

Levels to watch. 133.675 133.2 and 132.3. If 132.3 gets blown we are IMO officially bearish for a bit. 127.2 target for now. I think we will bounce back up to 132.4 area for one last hit before 122.(ABC). IMO that is. On the return... 147 will be the target. Possibly 187, but I hope not because that will mean yuck for the economy. BUT we still need to break the open... and that gap.

This is like the 7th day in a row we have a selloff during Asia. Asian traders just buy up the yen like it's candy. I swear...one could just blindly short USD/JPY at the start of Asian session and then sell 4 hours later fot big profits. No charts nor indicators needed.

U/J struggling to get above 134.6 area. Might be a good short here.

Watching 132.3 for possible support. US has Non farm tomorrow morning before the US open. I don't see a definitive move being made before then. As I am bearish currently I think price will range until the news at least before moving south, and moves south usually start at the top of the range. So, I am anticipating a move to the upside where the sell off will begin if any is coming. For that to happen we need to push off something, and this open could be just that.

watch if there is a break of 135.1 for a bigger rally

now, 75 bps is being priced in for September when yesterday, the majority of the market thought that the FED was going to be dovish with only a 50 bps, LOL

Be weary of selling all USD pairs. USD/JPY has some serious upside. If it doesn't retrace in the next session this things likely to go north without looking back. It's right there...practically already there.

I would wait one session or place one part of a position.

Setting my 1 wk timer. You are right most times... albeit early.

NICE!! There goes my three legs up. I say we end the day here. I do love waking up to trades that have both opened and closed while I was asleep... Now that we have a propper three legged consolidation.. let's sell this puppy next week. See Youz!

136.65

got stopped out of the trade and re-entered. this is the result. price action baby

next week, it can rally towards 137.2

just highlighting that 95% likely the markets will consolidate in the next week or so in some range for a few weeks. Short term trades, a like risk can be used, multipe short term trades in the 350-780 pippets range, as can be seen.



side note: to keep in mind As we get further away from 1.10 the volatility has been increasing but I believe it will be in some range over August and mid September before the feds next announcement.

let’s compare this to 2018. It was a slow gradual increase in 2018. Now in 2022 we are having solid pushes on each break, record increasing rates. The fed has made a real push for rates higher. UJ is follow suite. Both where the fed wanted rates 2% and the market comfort spot. Then in 2018 a gradual wave pattern over 2-3 weeks within 1200-2400 range. And it did this until Jan 20th 6-8 times.




Now moving into September the Usd always gets stronger and it’s getting stronger already. We could see 147, 174 etc all with crazy moves.

juat speculation but this market is getting financially tighter as more money moves in leverage, overnight prices go up, prices go crazy on leverage calls. It’s already started. Last week some hedge fund went broke, many hedge funds getting pushed to the brink. And that’s what they want, the fed. They need to break those wallets with huge volatility. But now in today’s technology world it gets much tougher.

ugh... glad i went north first. Waiting on confirmation.