Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

t 16-28
a busy day here, i did pop in here every so often. Maybe later i will tell you about todays trades.
First one being a Fail, actually i had a second fail but that is history . Everything was fixed with extra %%% yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.
ill explain later hopefully.

t 07-06
we have an inside bar on Dax, 4 hour chart. lets see what happens.
t 07-07

t 07-11
Wednesday Cable trade.
1 = 07-45 bar, the low broke and price then went up, so no 1% for...... the high broke i got my 1% plus more and i went for the fix.

I fixed some ot he fail.
2 = price broke the 08-00 15 min bar, this i thought was the golden egg. IT WASNT .lol i got another 1% plus , again price reversed so lets call this a fail too.

Price broke the 08-00 high and 3 = big move up, THIS WAS THE GOLDEN EGG,,, you go with the market maker, it might involve staring at a screen lol.
i didnt need all those points/pips just the fix and a few %%. Happy Days.
t 07-18

t 07-19
Dax has just broke the inside bar high.
Cable , nothing doing yet with the 00-00 4 hour bar range.
t 07-20

t 07-25
cable is in a channel since 20-00 yesterday on the 15 minute bar.
Consolidation yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay. hopefully move down,
t 07-26

T 07-32 Cable, consolidation/channel on the 15 min bar.

t -7-32

t 08-40
Cable , very slow so far today. those tails on the 15 min bar suggest price moving up.
No Trigger no trade.

i have a fail and working on it.
t 08-42

A test result for the 07:45-08:00 range break and using a fixed risk to reward of -10 Pips, +20 Pips trading 1.0 lots.

Tested period: 2022.03.13 - 2022.07.28 (since summer time)

So i am not sure but it doesn't looks like a profitable plan to me. Not only it wouldn't achieve my goals of making a consistent profitable month of even +1% net, it doesn't even seem to provide long term profitable results.

I was running another test for the last 2 years but results were not profitable too.

Initial deposit 10000.00
Spread Current (22)
Total net profit -2000.00
Gross profit 5000.00
Gross loss -7000.00
Profit factor 0.71
Expected payoff -21.05
Absolute drawdown 2486.00
Maximal drawdown 2540.00 (25.26%)
Relative drawdown 25.26% (2540.00)
Total trades 95
Short positions (won %) 51 (21.57%)
Long positions (won %) 44 (31.82%)
Profit trades (% of total) 25 (26.32%)
Loss trades (% of total) 70 (73.68%)
Largest profit trade 200.00 loss trade -100.00
Average profit trade 200.00 loss trade -100.00
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 3 (600.00)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 18 (-1800.00)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 600.00 (3)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -1800.00 (18)
Average consecutive wins 1 consecutive losses 4

So your 1% equals 1 Pip of price movement? How do you "lock" it? So price moves 2 Pips in your favor and then reverses, you automatically take profit of that +1 Pip or exit the order manually?

If you risk 1% per Pip and place a stop loss or counter order at the opposite end of the range and the range is for example a 15 Pips. You are then effectively risking -15% to hopefully make at least 1% as soon as price moved at least +2 Pips in your favor so you could lock that in.

If price doesn't move in your favor and so you get stopped or countered at -15% you then have to make at least +15% back to be flat/break even again. Assuming you still trade 1% a Pip for the second order you place it means your second order would need to make +15 Pips.

Maybe you could actually post some trades executes. I don't mean this any negatively but it could actually help me to understand what your actually doing

t 06-57 Cable. yesterdays daily range = 88. Todays 00-00 4 hour bhar range =19. The High is already broken.

Trade well all.
t 07-00

Too much information overload........

30th May 2022 i had a £10 000 bank. it is now £40 200 i compound, i look for 1%,
Initially 1 % of £10 000 is £100 Sooooooooooooooooooooo 1 pip is £100 because i compound i usually do not even need a full pip movement, (obviously we have spread).
You have failed before you trade, you use too much information.
i do get fails, but i am good at fixing a fail
PLUS. I USE THE BROKERS MONEY..........
End of story and no i will never show a live trade fix, as it is priceless.....
Trade Well.

t 08-22
Cable charts just copied. below is the 15 minute chart.
1 = 07-45 high broke .
2 =- 07-45 low broke.
3 = 08-00 , low broke..


Chart below is Cable 1 minute chart, so you can see easier.
H 1 = 07-45 high broke.
L 2 = 07-45 Low broke.
L 3 = 08-00 Low broke.
Trading isnt easy, ideally we should have a trigger and the price continues in that direction for hundreds of pips.
It doesnt do that or sometimes it does. we only need 20 or 5 0r 1.
I we get a fail we see how much of the daily range is left to play with.
t 08-29

t 08-30
Dax, we had an inside bar yesterday 00-00 , 4 hour bar. Low broke for a few.
t08-34

Well still you would risk -30 Pips by limiting your loss by entering on the break of a BillyBar like it is today, a 30 Pips range.

At 1% a Pip that is risking 30%, so you risk losing 3k of that 10k YOU did put in the broker's account. So for sure that's YOUR money you put at risk. It's not the broker's money nor it is in fantasy land.

Over the last few weeks price spiked a few times in less than a blink of an eye for even far more than such -30 Pips. So let's say you would not get executed/filled at your desired price you prayed for, good bye -30% in one go?

It's great if you are good with your "fixing" and i won't ask again how you do it. Not sure what the purpose of the topic is then but okay.

Regarding information overload. These are basic statistics i tried to make following Claudia's advice of risking a fixed X to make a fixed X on that range break while setting orders on both sides and don't touch it. Also wasn't it you trying to teach i should develop a plan ahead of times? Well that's what i am trying.

Anyway i see it's hopeless trying to have an objective discussion with you. Wish a good day to you anyway.

Today Claudia's bar 07:45-08:00 would have failed again to reach +20 Pips. The BillyBar now broke to the low and so far it would have reached +4.9 Pips for me. It's currently retracing up again.

t 08-37
thankeeeeeeeeeee, it has just been pointed out to me.
We had 2 inside bars on Cable 4 hour chart, yesterday at 16-00 & today 00-00. ((( I Know)))lol.

i just like showing dax. Thank you anonymous ( Lurker),

edit add chart

[quote=lddd;14082688]{quote} Well still you would risk -30 Pips by limiting your loss by entering on the break of a BillyBar like it is today, a 30 Pips range. At 1% a Pip that is risking 30%, so you risk losing 3k of that 10k YOU did put in the broker's account. So for sure that's YOUR money you put at risk. It's not the broker's money nor it is in fantasy land. Over the last few weeks price spiked a few times in less than a blink of an eye for even far more than such -30 Pips. So let's say you would not get executed/filled at your desired price you prayed for, good by

today i nearly didnt go long off the 07-45 bar.
But changed my mind, so i got the high and the low and the 08-00 low.

I dont call a risk a risk. i will glaldy make a trdae off a 30 pip range to make 1..

It is my game, i play my rules. as long as price moves we just need to be with it..
It doesnt matter if i am hunting 1 or 5 which i used to do, but the odds for gaining 1 point are ridiculously high.

I first got this idea off a Spanish guy years and years ago, i suddenly realised what he meant.
Trade well.

t 09-33
Dax, if you shorted off this inside bar =1 , it would o0f failed. M = the mother Bar.
This is the bar traders normally trade off. i prefer to trade the inside bar its self aggressively . ( i have not traded any of these ib trades).

You seem to have found a rather extreme non-conventional path for yourself. If you achieve your goals you have, by all means - go for it.

I don't want to sound like a fool. It just looks somehow crazy to me risking these percentage numbers on a single order you execute when all the professionals are telling you to not risk more than maybe 1-2% on any given trade.

I know 10k might not be your total trading capital so you might want to call the 1% more like a 0.1 or 0.01 risk. It's then just confusing reading these numbers without understanding the real context to it. You then could better speak of Pips instead of percentages, you know what i mean.

Any i would just be happy to find a reasonably profitable trading plan for me that would leave me with a small profit at the end of the month.

Making a consistent 1% of net profit by the end of the moth executing something in a clear repeatable, objective way. But looking around it either comes down to having to use tons of indicators, doing all that chart reading esoteric work, trading hundreds of different things and diversifying, doing all together and making it even more complicate.

I mean if cannot even find/do that why should i trade. I was looking at the last 30 years return on the S&P 500, Dax or similar indexes. It would have already made me a millionaire just passively having invested 500 bucks every month and buy and hold.

So i start asking my self what my goal should look like trying to make this for a living. Why all that struggle with "day trading" if you cannot even consistently make something like a 1% per month, right.

However on forums like these were i guess 99% of the crowd speaking are retail traders / amateurs only claim things but can't show you a shit. Also the vast majority seem to be only focused talking about all their %%% gains but no words about what they put on risk for that.

Let's take these prop trading firms for example. Most of these companies give you a strict max. -5% drawdown you have to control otherwise you are out. I mean they do so for a reason right? So maybe risking 1% on such scalping entry is already way too much especially if you run into a series of losers in a row which can definitely happen any time.

Last time i tried "fixing" me out of such BillyBar trade i ended up losing 8 entries in a row. Would i have risked 1% per Pip by placing my stop loss at the opposite end of every candle i entered at trying to catch a breakout, good bye..

Luckily i made a little profit after the year i tried concentrating trading the BillyBar and doing that fixing stuff without any kind of real plan. I turned 5k into something like a 15k after the fees but also had drawdown at peak of -65%. I don't think that what you want to have with trading a 6-7 or even 8 figures account. To me thats just risking way too much and comes close to gambling then.

I mean what you can control in trading? Nothing instead of your willing allowed risk and even that can go down the hill on such black swan events or the broker not executing you at the price you told them.

09:50

So the 07:45 bar broke to the long side and failed to deliver what i was looking for. The following BillyBar broke on the low, so going short for a +5 would have been profitable. The range on the BillyBar is about 30 Pips in distance. The 07:45 bar as highlighted on my charts right now is 17 Pips.

Maybe Claudia's plan was also meant to set orders on both sides but without one canceling the other? So in this instance i would have lost -10 Pips on the high but then making +20 after the low break. Yesterday however doing so would have resulted in 2 x -10 Pips then after it retraced the -10 Pips before going +20 on any of them.