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Trading Made Simple

  • #133,161
  • Edited 6:57pm Jul 25, 2022 6:18pm | Edited 6:57pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} update: {image} ... {image}
Quoting holyGrill
{quote} Hey Emm, How do you determine the Market types 1 + 2?
big picture Week 30 Jul 25 to 29
{edited}

TMS_V19 EA

- Weekly is sideways after the recent 3 weeks down trend,

- note the Weekly Control Candle WCC 3 weeks ago, what is its range high-low?

- check the Weekly ATR(52) weeks and its most recent 10-weeks and 5-weeks, and decide Market Type #2 or Type#3.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,162
  • Jul 25, 2022 7:27pm Jul 25, 2022 7:27pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {quote} big picture Week 30 Jul 25 to 29 {edited} TMS_V19 EA - Weekly is sideways after the recent 3 weeks down trend, - note the Weekly Control Candle WCC 3 weeks ago, what is its range high-low? - check the Weekly ATR(52) weeks and its most recent 10-weeks and 5-weeks, and decide Market Type #2 or Type#3. {image} ...

Price Action Trading

AudChf Jul 26

- you can trade the Daily Bullish Engulfing Outside Bar

- wait for a H1 setup in the direction of the Daily BUEOB

- what are the risks? WCC High, BRNs/RNs, TMS EMAs 50ema and 200ema, etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,163
  • Jul 25, 2022 7:36pm Jul 25, 2022 7:36pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} UJ Jul 25 Sydney 9:40am > Market Type#2 - once I have done my weekly top down analysis, I have my trade plan ready - Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan. - I can open sell when Tokyo market session open , and/or - I also use M5 for my low risk trading idea entries {image}
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{image}

UJ Jul 26 Tokyo 9:30am

- Daily did not close with APB/HA colour change ... stay in the sell position/basket

- H1 made the turn-around while H4 has to wait...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,164
  • Jul 25, 2022 8:13pm Jul 25, 2022 8:13pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} UJ Jul 26 Tokyo 9:30am - Daily did not close with APB/HA colour change ... stay in the sell position/basket - H1 made the turn-around while H4 has to wait... {image} ... {image}

UJ Jul26 H4 Toky0 10am, New York EST 9pm , Big E' Pacific 6PM

- TMS_V19 information EA shows all the technical conditions you need to make a Go/No-Go trade decision only if ...

- easy decision based on trading Big E' rules in all his 463 posts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,165
  • Jul 26, 2022 1:40am Jul 26, 2022 1:40am
Took USDJPY today. Still with the 10-pips-a-day plan.

I had two entries here. Setup candle is the one with vertical yellow line. Entry is at the opening of the candle after that.

You can see that the first setup candle happened when TDI has not crossed yet.
Why? Because I tweaked the fast RSI on the TDI for a bit (from 2 to 1). In that setting, setup candle has appeared.
That gives an earlier entry signal for an aggressive entry because you can see that actually price still has not crossed EMA fully yet.

Realizing I should not be aggressive since it's only my first week using the system, I turned it back to 2, then the real setup candle appeared.
I entered my second position here. Both went TP.

Again, the risk-reward ratio is not even 1:1, but with the way I do things now, win rate is high so I don't even think about it too much.

Will take a look at more entries during London but I am pretty much done for today. Move on to my day job.
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  • #133,166
  • Jul 26, 2022 2:38am Jul 26, 2022 2:38am
Quoting jpntrader
Took USDJPY today. Still with the 10-pips-a-day plan. I had two entries here. Setup candle is the one with vertical yellow line. Entry is at the opening of the candle after that. You can see that the first setup candle happened when TDI has not crossed yet. Why? Because I tweaked the fast RSI on the TDI for a bit (from 2 to 1). In that setting, setup candle has appeared. That gives an earlier entry signal for an aggressive entry because you can see that actually price still has not crossed EMA fully yet. Realizing I should not be aggressive since...

TMS 5-Method MOMO trade

- simply set a +/- 10ips envelop on the 5EMA Typical Price, Shift+2

- trading is visual price action

~+10 to 20pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Jul26 5EMA channel 26-7-2022 3-30-12 pm.png Size: 29 KB


https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex...rage-envelopes
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,167
  • Jul 26, 2022 2:53am Jul 26, 2022 2:53am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} TMS 5-Method MOMO trade - simply set a +/- 10ips envelop on the 5EMA Typical Price, Shift+2 - trading is visual price action ~+10 to 20pips {image} https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex...rage-envelopes
That's a good one. What channel is that if you don't mind sharing?
  • #133,168
  • Jul 26, 2022 2:59am Jul 26, 2022 2:59am
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} That's a good one. What channel is that if you don't mind sharing?

that channel has been around since Big E time in 2008

its a simple price envelope on the 5-EMA, Typical Price, Shift+2 as the median

the envelope high-low is 20pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,169
  • Jul 26, 2022 4:39am Jul 26, 2022 4:39am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} that channel has been around since big e time in 2008 its a simple price envelope on the 5-ema, typical price, shift+2 as the median the envelope high-low is 20pips {image}
you are so generous,i love you!
  • #133,170
  • Jul 26, 2022 5:04am Jul 26, 2022 5:04am
AU Jul26 H1 London 11:00am

- nice looking ...

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,171
  • Jul 26, 2022 5:57am Jul 26, 2022 5:57am
EURJPY 4 HOUR
NO MORE THAN IDEA
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GBP JPY 4 HOUR
NO MORE THAN IDEA
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LEARNING CHART
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #133,172
  • Jul 26, 2022 6:50am Jul 26, 2022 6:50am
Ideal chart usd chf daily
was one of the best market condition last 4 months
market not all the time is clear like this
8 setups 1 losses 7 winners and esch winner more bigger than 1 R
LEARNING CHART
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #133,173
  • Jul 26, 2022 7:41am Jul 26, 2022 7:41am
Quoting Alihelmy123
Ideal chart usd chf daily was one of the best market condition last 4 months market not all the time is clear like this 8 setups 1 losses 7 winners and esch winner more bigger than 1 R LEARNING CHART{image}
You're right, the chart is beautiful.
I like it when the candles are having that orderly formation. The type of trade I'd take day in day out.
  • #133,174
  • Edited 2:43pm Jul 26, 2022 2:00pm | Edited 2:43pm
AUD/USD or not?
To get a preview of the next month, I look at the 10year - 2year yield spread.

  1. Screenshot 1 shows the Aussie yield spread for August on monthly basis. This means weakness in AUD and strength in USD. 1:0 Bearish AUD/USD.
  2. In screenshot 2 are current Manufacturing PMI data neutral. Still 1:0 bearish AUD/USD.
  3. Screenshot 3: Don’t believe in yield spreads? The 10y2y yield spread for USD/CHF predicted a bearish move for July 2022 as others mentioned it was a beautiful move down (Screenshot 3). 2:0 bearish AUD/USD.
  4. Screenshot 4: Daily 10y2y AUD/USD yield spreads illustrates a bearish move for the 27th of July 2022. Tomorrow or today depending on where you live. 3:0 bearish AUD/USD.
  5. Screenshot 5: The TDI indicator in the 4 hour timeframe has a bearish setup with a potentially bigger move to the downside. Edit: TDI now points at 5 o'clock and looks like it breaks out of that blue lined channel.
    4:0 Short AUD/USD.

This is going to be my next trade. And its reasons for it.

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  • #133,175
  • Jul 26, 2022 7:47pm Jul 26, 2022 7:47pm
Quoting MrAnonymous
AUD/USD or not? To get a preview of the next month, I look at the 10year - 2year yield spread. Screenshot 1 shows the Aussie yield spread for August on monthly basis. This means weakness in AUD and strength in USD. 1:0 Bearish AUD/USD. In screenshot 2 are current Manufacturing PMI data neutral. Still 1:0 bearish AUD/USD. Screenshot 3: Don’t believe in yield spreads? The 10y2y yield spread for USD/CHF predicted a bearish move for July 2022 as others mentioned it was a beautiful move down (Screenshot 3). 2:0 bearish AUD/USD. Screenshot 4: Daily 10y2y...
This would become a completely different topic so I don't know if I'm allowed to discuss this here or not..
But I would like to study more about this.

Would you mind sharing the the analysis itself: what data variables are needed (or does it have to be this exact set of data you're showing), and what do you look for in those data in correlation with how the TDI/5-method showing its signal, and where you get that data.

Also, I know I can probably Google it but to be honest I don't know how to read that graph (for example, you're making a square box on a data for the month of May, like how does that have any connection with August, things like that).

I'm a complete blank paper for this kind of field.
  • #133,176
  • Jul 26, 2022 8:16pm Jul 26, 2022 8:16pm
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} This would become a completely different topic so I don't know if I'm allowed to discuss this here or not.. But I would like to study more about this. Would you mind sharing the the analysis itself: what data variables are needed (or does it have to be this exact set of data you're showing), and what do you look for in those data in correlation with how the TDI/5-method showing its signal, and where you get that data. Also, I know I can probably Google it but to be honest I don't know how to read that graph (for example, you're making a...
I dropped you a message because this thread is only about TMS System. If I had to choose one trading system from all of this site, then I go with TMS. It's really great work.
  • #133,177
  • Jul 26, 2022 9:18pm Jul 26, 2022 9:18pm
Quoting MrAnonymous
{quote} I dropped you a message because this thread is only about TMS System. If I had to choose one trading system from all of this site, then I go with TMS. It's really great work.
Roger that.

Yeah I've been telling Emmanuel and DrDave as well about where have I been this last decade, not paying attention to the system that actually works for me, which is this TMS system.
(Although a system is just a system. People like 2scoops and some other felt that TMS isn't for them. That's also valid. TMS just happens to work for me.)
  • #133,178
  • Jul 26, 2022 9:45pm Jul 26, 2022 9:45pm
GBPAUD DAILY
NO MORE THAN IDEA
LEARNING CHART
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Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #133,179
  • Jul 27, 2022 1:07am Jul 27, 2022 1:07am
Quoting MrAnonymous
AUD/USD or not? To get a preview of the next month, I look at the 10year - 2year yield spread. Screenshot 1 shows the Aussie yield spread for August on monthly basis. This means weakness in AUD and strength in USD. 1:0 Bearish AUD/USD. In screenshot 2 are current Manufacturing PMI data neutral. Still 1:0 bearish AUD/USD. Screenshot 3: Don’t believe in yield spreads? The 10y2y yield spread for USD/CHF predicted a bearish move for July 2022 as others mentioned it was a beautiful move down (Screenshot 3). 2:0 bearish AUD/USD. Screenshot 4: Daily 10y2y...

there were a few good years ... 2002, 2009, 2010-2013, ...

and now it is %&^**()

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #133,180
  • Jul 27, 2022 1:10am Jul 27, 2022 1:10am
Quoting emmanuel7788
AU Jul26 H1 London 11:00am - nice looking ... {image}

AU Jul 27 H1 update"

- no matter how nice it looked it went no where ...

- today is FOMC and what happens after that ....?
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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