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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #85,601
  • Edited 3:11am Jul 24, 2022 2:11am | Edited 3:11am
likely correct to 129 areas by few weeks , typically below 131 .48 to decide before bull more or less .so very good opportunity having sl 137.01 . and of sl 136.60 for target 134.73 . lets see
and gold may likely test break 1784.38 and 1786.61 to even 1809 to 1878 + possible , that is huge turmoils possible even , ok down pressure looks not over yet to retest 1690 ok before the jump. will wait there for long try.
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #85,602
  • Jul 24, 2022 2:58am Jul 24, 2022 2:58am
Quoting H13
{quote} {quote} To the both of you What kind of trend trader buys just before the market sells off over 250 points...why even use a stop or set it at 500 pips then. Those are just a few things wrong. Trend trading that is not...throwing mud on a wall and hoping it sticks, yes. Who are you trying to kid, this website is jam-packed with this kind of thing and it doesn't do justice to yourselves trying to validate it. If you think it's good then more power to you.
Hi
this shooting star says to us that the market has be hand to hand and this control is by bear camp also we can see a long upper wick with 350 pips . what is mean this ? entry signs by sellers of USDYEN .
also look at US 10-yr that this is falling now below 3. (in fact 2.75 now).
I am not talking with you about a bearish shooting star pattern (daily or weekly ) I am talking with you about a monthly bearish shooting star pattern .
we know this is a reversal pattern when you can see a reversal pattern in top The decision is yours
I know we have a hike rate by Fed this week and maybe maybe we will see a retrace (small) but trend is down
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  • #85,603
  • Jul 24, 2022 3:03am Jul 24, 2022 3:03am
my view
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  • #85,604
  • Edited 6:10am Jul 24, 2022 5:36am | Edited 6:10am
Quoting hussin naiji
my view {image}
Possible but very tough even breaking limit 131.34 also as signal correction down further to and below 126.23 towards 120/118 to restart great bull. Anyway monthly chart looks greatest mighty bull started, broken already, now breaks previos tops and just may little or little more correction before 140 to much much more 172 +!!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #85,605
  • Jul 24, 2022 7:34am Jul 24, 2022 7:34am
Quoting hussin naiji
{quote} Hi this shooting star says to us that the market has be hand to hand and this control is by bear camp also we can see a long upper wick with 350 pips . what is mean this ? entry signs by sellers of USDYEN . also look at US 10-yr that this is falling now below 3. (in fact 2.75 now). I am not talking with you about a bearish shooting star pattern (daily or weekly ) I am talking with you about a monthly bearish shooting star pattern . we know this is a reversal pattern when you can see a reversal pattern in top The decision is yours I know...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/24/when...ip-abroad.html

Quote
Perhaps the most consequential is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s campaign to raise interest rates (i.e., borrowing costs). The central bank has been more aggressive than others around the world, Hunter said; the dynamic creates an incentive for international investors to keep funds in dollar-based assets since they can generally earn a higher return.

Quote
While the U.S. dollar will likely remain strong for another six months or so, it’s likely at or near its peak relative to other major currencies given prevailing economic dynamics, Hunter said — with the caveat that currency moves are notoriously difficult to predict.

Inflation doesn't look like it is going to peak soon. It will still be elevated and the FED will continue to hike interest rates, causing the U.S. dollar to appreciate. The FED said that their goal is to reduce inflation, which requires aggressive interest rate hikes, exceeding what the market is trying to predict. If inflation is 9% already, the interest rates have to be raised above that.

Quote
“You’ve always got the uncertainty of what will happen in the future,” he added. “The dollar could strengthen even further, but it could fall back.”

A shooting star or whatever pattern appears on the chart doesn't indicate that the trend will change. As long as the global economy faces risks, the U.S. dollar will remain strong. Minor pullbacks don't indicate a trend change. January and February of 2022 had a monthly doji or whatever candle it is called, but in March, the big rally started when everyone thought that shorting USD/JPY was a good idea.

However, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY can face severe dumping on the monthly chart. EU and U.K. have bad fundamentals, which is why I would prefer to sell EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY compared to USD/JPY.
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,606
  • Jul 24, 2022 9:05am Jul 24, 2022 9:05am
Why would you think that US10Y would fall back down suddenly because of some pattern on a monthly chart? Why can't it go to 4%?
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,607
  • Jul 24, 2022 9:48am Jul 24, 2022 9:48am
Quoting ForexGoose
Why would you think that US10Y would fall back down suddenly because of some pattern on a monthly chart? Why can't it go to 4%? {image}
Its a historic inflection point for a trade either way. You have people who are supply/demand traders(10Y hit supply) and you have people who are trend traders(trend is up). You cant have it both ways, hence why we have a market.

2.75-2.85 has been the area to watch for UJ traders since over a decade ago. Japan certainly doesnt care to stop the yen from falling.


4% would be impressive, and the Fedgov would have to raise taxes in order to actually pay the nearly $1Trl per month payment that would necessitate.
As always, gotta follow bonds. Last weeks rally impressive drop in long dated yields coupled with the equity rally certainly showed signs for an increased appetite for risk in the short term. Possible carry trade of the year if the fed shows any sign of pivoting this week or if GDP signals we are in or near a recession.
  • #85,608
  • Jul 24, 2022 9:58am Jul 24, 2022 9:58am
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} {quote} I agree with both of you. As H13 said, winds of change are upon us. If you look at most JPY pairs, almost all of them are at MONTHLY Resistance. That means something, its not just coincidence. To buy near a fking Monthly Resistance is...suicidal to say the least. Look at GBPJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY, USDJPY... I mean, it doesnt take Sherlock Holmes to find out whats going on and what is likely going to happen. Only EURJPY isnt at a monthly resistance, but its still near and it shows, just like the rest, signs of bearishness. With...

Not rude at all. Spoken like a seasoned trader. There are many styles. As Bruce said.. Be water my friend..
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,609
  • Jul 24, 2022 10:26am Jul 24, 2022 10:26am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} following Fibonacci or fractal trading strategies guarantees a loss how many accounts have you lost?
Using Fractals (Elliot wave)? 0. 2yrs running now. Other systems. Fundamentals? OOOf... I was hard headed lol.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,610
  • Edited 1:49pm Jul 24, 2022 1:31pm | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting ForexGoose
Why would you think that US10Y would fall back down suddenly because of some pattern on a monthly chart? Why can't it go to 4%? {image}
Again, looking at other government bonds (the US30Y, US10Y, US5Y, US3Y), they are ALL at Major Monthly Resistance. You seem to be very stuck in your bias. Even the US20Y shows sign of bearishness. DXY is also at Major reversal/pivot point and shows sign of bearishness. You have to open your eyes and be OBJECTIVE about whats going on.

I mean, it COULD go to 4%, price is never too high to buy or to make a new high, but using the same phrasing as you did, why can't it fall right now? Its not about whether it could go to 4% or not, it's about the probabilities of it doing so. Its always a matter of what is LIKELY to happen and when you look at all the evidence objectively, USD should weaken. Now, it doesnt mean that this is whats going to happen next but as traders, our job is to look at facts objectively and play the odds and probabilities.

Also, its not about "some pattern" happening on the monthly chart for me (even though the Monthly chart is pretty important). Its about A LOT of patterns happening on most USD pairs, Government bonds, DXY at the same time, the same place on the monthly chart (resistance), showing the same thing (signs of bearishness) and the economic situation (even though USD is a strong currency, JPY is a more stable one), etc. Again, we all play the odds our own way and in our own view.
  • #85,611
  • Jul 24, 2022 2:39pm Jul 24, 2022 2:39pm
Quoting TheCardinal
{quote} Again, looking at other government bonds (the US30Y, US10Y, US5Y, US3Y), they are ALL at Major Monthly Resistance. You seem to be very stuck in your bias. Even the US20Y shows sign of bearishness. DXY is also at Major reversal/pivot point and shows sign of bearishness. You have to open your eyes and be OBJECTIVE about whats going on. I mean, it COULD go to 4%, price is never too high to buy or to make a new high, but using the same phrasing as you did, why can't it fall right now? Its not about whether it could go to 4% or not, it's about...
If inflation is to be bought back down to 2% as Powell said before, then the interest rates have to rise higher. The inflation is 9% and it won't magically get to 2% next year by itself, even if the growth slows.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ent-bond-yield
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,612
  • Jul 24, 2022 3:08pm Jul 24, 2022 3:08pm
USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is in a bearish mode. Price action has retested the 136.920/139.270 multi-year horizontal resistance zone (purple) but met a bearish rejection. We may see further southward market engineering to an area of value before another strong bullish attempt to breach the zone.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #85,613
  • Jul 24, 2022 4:38pm Jul 24, 2022 4:38pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} 10 pips is random noise 180 pip stop loss isn't much when swing or trend trading USD is also a safe haven, so it doesn't really make much sense selling it when trading for the long-term
You're delusional and have no idea what you post about.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #85,614
  • Jul 24, 2022 7:30pm Jul 24, 2022 7:30pm
Looks bullish on H4 already.
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,615
  • Jul 24, 2022 8:02pm Jul 24, 2022 8:02pm
Bohica?

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,616
  • Jul 25, 2022 6:53am Jul 25, 2022 6:53am
some resistance at 136.5/6 today
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,617
  • Jul 25, 2022 2:10pm Jul 25, 2022 2:10pm
Stay short below 781
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #85,618
  • Jul 25, 2022 7:12pm Jul 25, 2022 7:12pm
Stay short

Price is being manipulated to stay under 55
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #85,619
  • Jul 26, 2022 6:49am Jul 26, 2022 6:49am
Quoting H13
{quote} You're delusional and have no idea what you post about.
how so?

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I bought USD/JPY, sold EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. My stop loss wasn't 10 pips either for those pairs.

Quoting H13
Stay short Price is being manipulated to stay under 55
do you believe that the price is being manipulated?

what is a delusion?

Quote
an idiosyncratic belief or impression that is firmly maintained despite being contradicted by what is generally accepted as reality or rational argument, typically a symptom of mental disorder.

typical rookies
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,620
  • Jul 26, 2022 3:29pm Jul 26, 2022 3:29pm
Possible breakout
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
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