"Exchange of hands"
3
- #4,721
- Jun 23, 2022 10:56pm Jun 23, 2022 10:56pm
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
"Exchange of hands"
One of my favorite setups probably about to play out now on Indicies - SPX & NAS
Really nice tight internal range liquidity generated just before the NYSE (coincidence?
) to get both sellers and buyers out of the market and trigger the breakout artists into wrong direction.
All one need to do is see how price reacts into the lows & highs and then take action if confirmations are there, watch if volume will get trapped and potentially ride it to the other side back.
Nas M5
Really nice tight internal range liquidity generated just before the NYSE (coincidence?
) to get both sellers and buyers out of the market and trigger the breakout artists into wrong direction.All one need to do is see how price reacts into the lows & highs and then take action if confirmations are there, watch if volume will get trapped and potentially ride it to the other side back.
Nas M5
One of my favorite setups probably about to play out now on Indicies - SPX & NAS Really nice tight internal range liquidity generated just before the NYSE (coincidence?
gold M5 lows/highs - nobody gets a free lunch here
- #4,725
- Jun 24, 2022 10:44am Jun 24, 2022 10:44am
{quote} Unforutnately no setup on Indicies as one side is too much overvalued and price just spiked up to imbalance without taking lows this time like I was expecting (maybe PM session? who knows) but surely gold, oil, eur, gbp and few other major pairs gave really nice textbook amazing opportunities on both London & NY. gold M5 lows/highs - nobody gets a free lunch here {image}
Same basic simple ICT model (time & price, sellstops/buystops, impulsive MSS/BOS, 50% retracement with FVG) taught on Youtube mentorships with some of my own tweaks.
FTMO challenge nearly done with only just these scalps with a maximum TOTAL risk exposure of 1%!
Hopefully will be able to finish it by next week (0,75% left) and so with verification by next week.
BTW their spreads are really nice and I also suggest everyone who doesent have access to such a big capital to start with prop firms. As You can clearly see in their statistics (account metrix) what You need to improve on and You can actually use reasonable risk (0,5-1% per trade) and not only life off that but change ur whole life!
My goal is not only to get consistent monthly payouts and comfortably life off by trading but Im really hoping to crush their leaderboards in the next following months.
gold M2
If you have the balls to pyramid scale up ur position size and move the SL with the LTF structure while controling the risk exposure .. only sky is the limit!
Happy weekened!
- #4,726
- Jun 24, 2022 10:55am Jun 24, 2022 10:55am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
{quote} Taking all off just before the high at the opposite side FVG and heading outside. Same basic simple ICT model (time & price, sellstops/buystops, impulsive MSS/BOS, 50% retracement with FVG) taught on Youtube mentorships with some of my own tweaks. FTMO challenge nearly done with only just these scalps with a maximum TOTAL risk exposure of 1%! Hopefully will be able to finish it by next week (0,75% left) and so with verification by next week. BTW their spreads are really nice and I also suggest everyone who doesent have access to such a big...
"Exchange of hands"
- #4,727
- Edited 8:10am Jun 25, 2022 4:44am | Edited 8:10am
{quote} Congratulations !!!!!!
Thanks!
If you dont mind, I will try to open some more live discussions here, pump some life into this thread and try post next week every day when I feel like it and the probabilities are there - mostly gold and maybe some other major pair just prior to NY session (sometimes maybe London too, but my focus is mostly on NY always) before the actual bigger daily range expansion starts unfolding, say where I think its heading and quick review after session as well to sum the day up.
As You know theres everyday so much easily reduplicatable setups especially off the key lows/highs, once seen then cannot be unseen.
- #4,728
- Jun 25, 2022 6:08am Jun 25, 2022 6:08am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
"Exchange of hands"
- #4,729
- Jun 26, 2022 1:09am Jun 26, 2022 1:09am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
One of my favorite setups probably about to play out now on Indicies - SPX & NAS Really nice tight internal range liquidity generated just before the NYSE (coincidence?
5M - SMT between US500 vs US100 - price stays above H4 FVG
H4 - making HLs - and stays above previous week/day high
"Exchange of hands"
- #4,730
- Edited 6:00am Jun 26, 2022 3:29am | Edited 6:00am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
Overall Gold Bias as it looks on chart:
It is below yearly open and at Bearish OB and a daily fvg extended in time which can also act as resistance, expecting bearish order-flow
However COT data shows more longs and shorts also reduced.
It is below yearly open and at Bearish OB and a daily fvg extended in time which can also act as resistance, expecting bearish order-flow
However COT data shows more longs and shorts also reduced.
"Exchange of hands"
- #4,731
- Edited 4:02am Jun 26, 2022 3:32am | Edited 4:02am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
Why Bond Yields Are a Key Economic Barometer? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x8vIvwYzFg
Treasury bond prices and dollar has inverse relation:
Treasury bond price chart looks like it is retracing to fill the fvg, expecting it to fall
US10Y Bond yield chart - having direct correlation with the dollar index, bond yield are being said as mother of all indicators.
Conclusion: Dollar is ranging, while the above bond yield chart is retracing to fill a fvg, they both move in same direction. expecting bullish dollar
These are not trade signals just thought process, will see how market takes them and unfolds.
Dollar COT report as at 21.06.2022
"Exchange of hands"
- #4,732
- Edited 5:06pm Jun 26, 2022 4:13pm | Edited 5:06pm
{quote} Some observations: 5M - SMT between US500 vs US100 - price stays above H4 FVG {image} H4 - making HLs - and stays above previous week/day high {image}
Probably should have went with the US30 instead of US100/US500 as it was the most obvious one who triggered the buystops & breakout traders @ LTF which also then instantly made the SMT with both US500 & US100 and actually showed me the setup I wanted to see and also later retested the highs really cleanly (potential scalein scenario).
US30 M1:
Now as I missed the big breakoutmove which triggered the HTF traders into market as well im not gonna chase it and will wait few days or week and watch what it does. If I had to guess then probably fills that remaining Daily imbalance, gives the consolidation range again and then continues with downside momentum.
US100 Daily:
Notice how they made these "consolidation" low volatility ranges exactly 8 days each before violating the extreme low/high with a following 3 consective daily bearish or bullish candles (depending on breakout), pretty random right?
Overall Gold Bias as it looks on chart: It is below yearly open and at Bearish OB and a daily fvg extended in time which can also act as resistance, expecting bearish order-flow {image} However COT data shows more longs and shorts also reduced. {image}
For bearish environment would make sense if they take out the Fridays high (which would trigger the buystops, get breakout traders into market and fill the hourly imbalance along with daily OB) and then continue into 1800 & May low BUT
however with the current market environement and economic situations (can never know whats coming next), so only price action can confirm. So i completely avoid making some clear analysis and putting some strict bias in my head before I see the Asia + London or atleast full Asia (preferably mostly ranging) being done already.
To avoid the "analysis paralysis" I always like to come to the charts with a neutral bias and clear mind just before the NY open, mark current + previous daily & weekly lows/highs, as these markets operate on NY time and its XAUUSD and then just wait till price gets to either high or low of the current or previous day/week, really simple and easy. Another big benefit to this trading approach is that Asia and London are mostly done so the intentions + liquidity read will be really clear or if not then there will be waiting game or no trade. And its usually the most volatile on NY (why sit whole day in a position when You can make the same or even more pips in just 1-2 hours?). Also very often the NY sets both the low and high of the day. If not both (high+low of the day) then atleast one side (high or low) is controlled by the NY.
So even if im wrong i can atleast sleep with a peace of mind knowing that I followed my plan and bought low or sold at high or atleast sold as close as possible to the high of the day, instead of already buying the (current daily) high or sell the low which is a big nono unless there is a clear tone set by Asia & London and something like a equal lows/highs (stops generated) or some other factor to fuel the continuation run. But usually the reversal patterns on NY make the most sense to me and these are the Best trading setups for me atleast, it allows me to always buy low and sell high and thats what we wanna do right? If Im wrong then usually will know within few minutes in and the SL does the job. Ofcourse Asia and London can be traded too but the confluences have to be there really high. From time to time these session offer some wonderful setups when You know what Youre looking for and for example when You know NY was dominating both lows&highs last 2 days, then most likely there will be off day next day (aka NY continuation off from Asia + London instead of NY reversal which takes both sides out).
Really simplistic, no stress approach and should make perfect sense I believe? Also somewhere i saw some statistics like 80% of the breakouts fail since market is always constantly seeking for liquidity off the lows&highs (SL-s) and then reversing, so always have to make the model and odds to be in Your favour.
Soz for the big reply, once the thoughts are running then its hard to stop.
Will try to keep the replies as short as possible in the future. :x
{quote} Lovely charts! Probably should have went with the US30 instead of US100/US500 as it was the most obvious one who triggered the buystops & breakout traders @ LTF which also then instantly made the SMT with both US500 & US100 and actually showed me the setup I wanted to see and also later retested the highs really cleanly (potential scalein scenario). US30 M1: {image} Now as I missed the big breakoutmove which triggered the HTF traders into market as well im not gonna chase it and will wait few days or week and watch what it does. If I had...
Waiting for NYO to make a potential continuation.
Most likely high of the day is locked in (gold) and vice versa for dollar, low of the day is in place after taking last weeks low out (dxy) and showed willingness to reverse.
Now waiting for continuation to downside - gold.
If it doesent start dropping before NY then perhaps NY can make one more liquidity grab (London high out) and then reverse,
gold M5 thoughts
Any opinions/comments are welcome,
Cheers!
- #4,734
- Edited 7:55am Jun 27, 2022 7:20am | Edited 7:55am
{quote} Waiting for NYO to make a potential continuation. Most likely high of the day is locked in (gold) and vice versa for dollar, low of the day is in place after taking last weeks low out (dxy) and showed willingness to reverse. Now waiting for continuation to downside - gold. If it doesent start dropping before NY then perhaps NY can make one more liquidity grab (London high out) and then reverse, gold M5 thoughts {image} Any opinions/comments are welcome, Cheers!
Will keep watching what it does @ NYSE open & red news in 1,5 hours as well, as these events will most likely be the actual trigger to fuel the move.
Will keep holding 50% of lot size (high of the day) until NY ends or BE hits.
gold M5
- #4,735
- Edited 11:30am Jun 27, 2022 10:44am | Edited 11:30am
{quote} "Pay the trader" - some partial TP @ gold just before the current low of the day (DXY at high of the day already). Will keep watching what it does @ NYSE open & red news in 1,5 hours as well, as these events will most likely be the actual trigger to fuel the move. Will keep holding 50% of lot size (high of the day) until NY ends or BE hits. gold M5 {image}
Why? 1820, NY PM session kicks in, ADR is done, DXY vioalted the lows (bullish SMT), Silver didnt take out todays low like gold did (bullish SMT) & its getting really booring to watch already.
NYSE and red news acceleration gave around 70-80 pips more as expected, so was totally worth to hold the remaining 50% until NY PM.
Why London entry?
Cause Asia was instantly pumped up at open (big gaps left), NY was dominating both sides (daily lows & highs) on Thursday and Friday (2 days in a row), London was creating tooo obvious equal highs (later followed by impulsive BOS down) to trick buyers in + take stops and fill remaining 1H Imbalance (later those equal highs turned into "retail support"- too obvious that it will move down and I can atleast BE) and all that action is at HTF key levels: 1H imbalance + Daily OB body, Premium/Discount & 1840 (Round number, double zeros). Pretty much all the things i mentioned at previous posts and the price action confirmed it.
Friday high taken & Hourly imbalance filled, that was my original idea I mentonied on Sundays post that could be the play & if London entry then look for obvious LTF equal lows/highs (buystops/sellstops), gold 1H:
gold M5 all out:
Cheers!
- #4,736
- Jun 27, 2022 11:31am Jun 27, 2022 11:31am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
{quote} Remaning 50% out near Fridays low as I believe most of the daily range, if not all of the daily range, is done & captured. Why? 1820, NY PM session kicks in, ADR is done, DXY vioalted the lows (bullish SMT), Silver didnt take out todays low like gold did (bullish SMT) & its getting really booring to watch already. NYSE and red news acceleration gave around 70-80 pips more as expected, so was totally worth to hold the remaining 50% until NY PM. Why London entry? Cause Asia was instantly pumped up at open (big gaps left), NY was dominating...
"Exchange of hands"
- #4,737
- Jun 27, 2022 12:02pm Jun 27, 2022 12:02pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 1,271 Posts
{quote} Thank you so much for sharing the chart as well its nice to have you at the forumat the moment market is close so data is not loading loaded on my chart. I have mention numbers on the attached chart, if you can just elaborate each of them in one line and what time frame you usually see the chart and what time frame execute entries. What makes a setup look like and how an entry is executed. It will be very beneficial for all of us her, much appreciated your time. Regards {image}
- #4,738
- Jun 27, 2022 12:15pm Jun 27, 2022 12:15pm
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
"Exchange of hands"
- #4,739
- Jun 27, 2022 12:45pm Jun 27, 2022 12:45pm
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Offline | 3,298 Posts
"Exchange of hands"
