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  • #1,214,901
  • May 24, 2022 6:52am May 24, 2022 6:52am
Quoting ForexGoose
It will probably range near 1.08 or 1.07 prior to the ECB and FED meetings next month. Then, it will be dumped again. Also, why would the EUR be bullish if oil imports from Russia are to be reduced, affecting growth? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/von-...-in-days-.html
Because the interest rated are going to go up next July. Bonds become atractive and to buy them you have to buy EUR. It doesn't correlate to growth.
The US had it's first quarter of negative growth and the USD went up when the interest rates went up.
  • #1,214,902
  • May 24, 2022 7:23am May 24, 2022 7:23am
Quoting Polimini
{quote} Because the interest rated are going to go up next July. Bonds become atractive and to buy them you have to buy EUR. It doesn't correlate to growth. The US had it's first quarter of negative growth and the USD went up when the interest rates went up.
the market already priced in those ECB interest rate hikes, but the USD is still very strong and it will get even stronger as the market exits equities and buys cash

what I am seeing on the daily chart is a setup for a bull trap where the price is pushed higher to extremes and then sharply reverses, as what has happened in the past

there will be no sustained EUR rally

also, why would bonds become attractive if there is inflation, interest rate hikes, and slowing growth?
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #1,214,903
  • May 24, 2022 7:40am May 24, 2022 7:40am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} the market already priced in those ECB interest rate hikes, but the USD is still very strong and it will get even stronger as the market exits equities and buys cash what I am seeing on the daily chart is a setup for a bull trap where the price is pushed higher to extremes and then sharply reverses, as what has happened in the past there will be no sustained EUR rally also, why would bonds become attractive if there is inflation, interest rate hikes, and slowing growth?
Bonds in US or EU are risk free. If the return on those bonds increase, they are obviously attractive. To buy them you have to buy the currency. Especially when there isn't many option to invest with stock markets in the red.
Inflation obviously is the cause of the rates going up, but it's irrelevant for the investing decision, it's a constant no matter what you invest in.
Growth works the other way around, a year ago the EU bond returns were negative making them irrelevant to the currency.
  • #1,214,904
  • May 24, 2022 9:00am May 24, 2022 9:00am
If it exceeds 1.09, then I'd be surprised.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #1,214,905
  • May 24, 2022 9:35am May 24, 2022 9:35am
I predict that EUR/USD will bounce off 10820 and fall
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  • #1,214,906
  • May 24, 2022 9:37am May 24, 2022 9:37am
Quoting Polimini
{quote} Because the interest rated are going to go up next July. Bonds become atractive and to buy them you have to buy EUR. It doesn't correlate to growth. The US had it's first quarter of negative growth and the USD went up when the interest rates went up.

In what way are European bonds attractive? The best quality German bunds are yielding less than 1%
  • #1,214,907
  • May 24, 2022 9:44am May 24, 2022 9:44am
Interesting!

Inserted Video
  • #1,214,908
  • May 24, 2022 9:45am May 24, 2022 9:45am
Just in case bulls push harder, 0757/67 and if, this zone breaks 0806/0821 is the next zone of interest.

0696, 0661 & 0644 are supports.

Lagarde and some officials are loading rates, but 10Y yields are down for the day, so slowing growth should worry the markets. EU maybe in its last as interest rates may converge the last days, but still diverge a long way.

The Oil embargo to Russia is still facing political problems, but in the end Europe will put it and change its supply chains.

Weekly chart is bearish, but Daily is ranging, watch the volatility!

Tightening is coming also and summer months are yielding less to the markets.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,214,909
  • May 24, 2022 9:46am May 24, 2022 9:46am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} In what way are European bonds attractive? The best quality German bunds are yielding less than 1%
Rates are going up on July.
  • #1,214,910
  • May 24, 2022 10:50am May 24, 2022 10:50am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
he Oil embargo to Russia is still facing political problems, but in the end Europe will put it and change its supply chains.

Europe will be forced to import oil, fertilizer and food from the USA at much higher prices.

That will increase demand for the USD which is still long-term bullish.
  • #1,214,911
  • May 24, 2022 10:51am May 24, 2022 10:51am
Quoting Polimini
{quote} Rates are going up on July.

To as much as 0.5%

By then rates will already be at least 1% in the USA
  • #1,214,912
  • May 24, 2022 11:05am May 24, 2022 11:05am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Europe will be forced to import oil, fertilizer and food from the USA at much higher prices. That will increase demand for the USD which is still long-term bullish.
Yes, the food safety problem is everywhere in the world, but not in USA.

Things can get worse fast!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,214,913
  • May 24, 2022 11:08am May 24, 2022 11:08am
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} To as much as 0.5% By then rates will already be at least 1% in the USA
That's already priced in, already announced. If you're implying it's either one or the other, they aren't infinte.
  • #1,214,914
  • May 24, 2022 11:15am May 24, 2022 11:15am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,214,915
  • May 24, 2022 11:30am May 24, 2022 11:30am
Eurusd.60 min.up。red line resistance
red line resistance
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  • #1,214,916
  • May 24, 2022 1:31pm May 24, 2022 1:31pm
Quoting LearnThink
Eurusd.60 min.up。red line resistance red line resistance {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,214,917
  • May 24, 2022 9:45pm May 24, 2022 9:45pm
I am securing a sell from price 1.07033 TP 1.06953
At the same time, I also secured a BULLLL from 1.07328 TP 1.037589
  • #1,214,918
  • May 24, 2022 10:38pm May 24, 2022 10:38pm
I sold because [ see on chart ] price is below

  1. h1 20 sma [ bollinger ]
  2. m1 200 ema
  3. m5 200 ema

Keep It Simple

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  • #1,214,919
  • May 24, 2022 11:15pm May 24, 2022 11:15pm
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  • #1,214,920
  • May 25, 2022 12:26am May 25, 2022 12:26am
boring day
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