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  • #1,214,861
  • May 22, 2022 11:29am May 22, 2022 11:29am
Europe's suicidal decision to sanction Russia will cause deep recession all across Europe as well as energy (and possibly food) rationing.

Get ready for lights-off, Euro-peeings!

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/...-symbolic-move
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/...ices-in-europe
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ce-2022-05-20/
  • #1,214,862
  • May 22, 2022 12:37pm May 22, 2022 12:37pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} The method I 'learned' was to find trade direction at HIGHER TF and trade in that direction at lower TF in order to increase probability of being right. But to be honest, we can argue all day about this - without any kind of hard statistical analysis it is impossible to say who is right. I don't have enough programming knowledge to turn my trading decisions into hard-definition algorithms and backtest thousands of times at different time frames on different markets. This is a real problem.
The method I 'learned' was to find trade direction at HIGHER TF and trade in that direction at lower TF in order to increase probability of being right.
That is correct the basic starting point. But then comes the oft' decried occurrence of the entries being made on smaller TFs in the direction of the higher TF that has been in that direction for a "lot" of bars, and the entries end up as losers. So, what happened to the rule of entering in the direction of the higher TF??? The standard answer" Nothing works all of the time". The actual answer: CHANGE by progressing from smaller TFs upward through higher TFs. Before that bigger "direction" TF that you are using changes direction, you are ALREADY making entries in the WRONG direction because you did not understand how to follow the upward progression of the DIRECTION CHANGE.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,214,863
  • May 22, 2022 12:46pm May 22, 2022 12:46pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} The method I 'learned' was to find trade direction at HIGHER TF and trade in that direction at lower TF in order to increase probability of being right. That is correct the basic starting point. But then comes the oft' decried occurrence of the entries being made on smaller TFs in the direction of the higher TF that has been in that direction for a "lot" of bars, and the entries end up as losers. So, what happened to the rule of entering in the direction of the higher TF??? The standard answer" Nothing works all of the time". The actual...
Look at this D1 plot from PatienceFX.
That red/blue line tracks the W2 swing quite well. You can see for yourself that when it is red, selling the rallies would work well. But when will a rally NOT be a rally but an upswing that is actually going to go so far that the red line turns blue and you switch to looking for pullbacks to buy? Looking at TFs BETWEEN D1 and W2 can help you with that. Oh, but of course, we can't possibly look at any TFs except EXACTLY the default one that MetaTrader provides. So looks like we're just sh!t-outta-luck, because we have no ability to do any kind of independent thinking--only regurgitating and following dogma allowed!

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If you check some TFs below D1, you will have some clues that it is HIGHLY LIKELY that this D1 upswing is going to at least pause now or even reverse. But the safe thing to do is simply wait to see what direction the smaller TFs go and take appropriate action.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,214,864
  • May 22, 2022 1:03pm May 22, 2022 1:03pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Look at this D1 plot from PatienceFX. That red/blue line tracks the W2 swing quite well. You can see for yourself that when it is red, selling the rallies would work well. But when will a rally NOT be a rally but an upswing that is actually going to go so far that the red line turns blue and you switch to looking for pullbacks to buy? Looking at TFs BETWEEN D1 and W2 can help you with that. Oh, but of course, we can't possibly look at any TFs except EXACTLY the default one that MetaTrader provides. So looks like we're just sh!t-outta-luck,...

That's what I'm looking for on the shorter time frame using BB - sell rallies in a downtrend and buy dips in an uptrend, theoretically the risk is limited unless the upper/lower band is rejected by a huge candle which is where switching to a lower time frame helps.

Then there are times to sell when price closes below lower BB and buy when it closes above upper BB, so long as the 200 MA agrees.
  • #1,214,865
  • May 22, 2022 3:58pm May 22, 2022 3:58pm
EURUSD price action on the daily time frame surged to the 1.04950/1.03674 multi-year horizontal support zone (green) seven days ago. It turned northward for a bullish retracement but presently it is sideways. However, bulls have a slight edge to push further northward.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,214,866
  • May 22, 2022 4:14pm May 22, 2022 4:14pm
Im favoring the upside but ima hedge baby so im prepared for eurusd to go lower
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SKQT - Super Kool Quant Trader
Daily Remy All Time Return: 5.6%
  • #1,214,867
  • May 22, 2022 8:06pm May 22, 2022 8:06pm
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,

My prediction below:-

A sell could be ideal but I will also bULLLLLLL my way through.

Secure a sell @ 1.05694 TP @ 1.05434
PLAN B
Secure a BULL @ 1.05989 TP @ 1.06069

Both with dedicated SL just in case.
  • #1,214,868
  • May 23, 2022 12:19am May 23, 2022 12:19am
Good morning. EU looks up to clear 0600/10 for a test to 0642. Many news are helping EU, but USD is strong yet and not near a recession like, Euro Countries are - I see more probabilities for stronger USD and with biggest rate increases this should at least go down to 0500 again this week, or next.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,214,869
  • May 23, 2022 12:58am May 23, 2022 12:58am
Quoting martin1977
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen, My prediction below:- A sell could be ideal but I will also bULLLLLLL my way through. Secure a sell @ 1.05694 TP @ 1.05434 PLAN B Secure a BULL @ 1.05989 TP @ 1.06069 Both with dedicated SL just in case.
CLOSED!
Happy PIPS!
  • #1,214,870
  • Edited 2:52am May 23, 2022 2:33am | Edited 2:52am
With my not-so-WILD guess, since now almost tomorrow, with unfavorable EU and preliminary US PMI reports watch E/U fall further. Voila.

BTW: To the “stability” of this spectacular drop, what is “concerting”:

  1. recent banter on Biden’s talk with other countries on curbing existing China tariffs via new Asia/China trade agreements. For the markets this is great, but not to sustain current E/U fall trend.
  2. and ECB warm-up to weakening Euro via near future rate increases as world reliance of all commodity transactions on USD combined with energy (and commodity) inflation doubles the negative pressure to EUR. As some ECB members wisely point: stronger EUR would/could eliminate meaningful part of this downward pressure - either way I don’t think the solution is so univariate.

Until then… Enjoy the ride.

  • #1,214,871
  • May 23, 2022 3:09am May 23, 2022 3:09am
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3 longs with SLs as shown . . . .It might go higher...it might not. . . .I don't know. But the market will soon tell us.....

  • #1,214,872
  • May 23, 2022 3:42am May 23, 2022 3:42am
Quoting F.g
{image} 3 longs with SLs as shown . . . .It might go higher...it might not. . . .I don't know. But the market will soon tell us.....
Good luck, the market is always targeting for the entries, but this entry at the lowest spot of the last swing down could conpansate you until the price reaches above 0642
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,214,873
  • May 23, 2022 4:00am May 23, 2022 4:00am
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So far so good. . . . I am lifting SLs accordingly . . . .

  • #1,214,874
  • May 23, 2022 4:24am May 23, 2022 4:24am
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I took P.Prfts 20% at 6 69.5

  • #1,214,875
  • May 23, 2022 4:28am May 23, 2022 4:28am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Good morning. EU looks up to clear 0600/10 for a test to 0642. Many news are helping EU, but USD is strong yet and not near a recession like, Euro Countries are - I see more probabilities for stronger USD and with biggest rate increases this should at least go down to 0500 again this week, or next.
A hawkish Lagarde sended EU towards 0680, now the focus should be for a retrace to where the move started (around 0600/10), or at least at where it broke - 0542.

Above 0700/25 should cap.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,214,876
  • Edited 5:40am May 23, 2022 4:43am | Edited 5:40am
waiting NY for reversal if possible
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The Average Discount Everything
  • #1,214,877
  • May 23, 2022 4:46am May 23, 2022 4:46am
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I plan to cash in another 40% at 6 .90 IF SEEN. . . . . . SL very tight now. . . . .

  • #1,214,878
  • May 23, 2022 5:29am May 23, 2022 5:29am
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Ready to close the last 40% SOON . . . . .

  • #1,214,879
  • May 23, 2022 5:56am May 23, 2022 5:56am
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Closed ALL. . . . .Watching now.

  • #1,214,880
  • May 23, 2022 5:57am May 23, 2022 5:57am
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Longed $JY. . . .

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