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EURUSD

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#1,214,741
May 18, 2022 1:31am May 18, 2022 1:31am

Js3mwtRc
Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,430 Posts

Quoting martin1977

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{quote} My speculation, it's heading south bound.

Ignored

After a break of 0521 in my screen its free to move into 0471 first

Looking for profitable short term trades ...|

#1,214,742
May 18, 2022 1:37am May 18, 2022 1:37am

martin1977
| Joined Jun 2019 | Status: Trader | 152 Posts

Quoting martin1977

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My take for today, let's see:- A sell till price 1.05230 from a price of 1.05490 or even now, a safety net of a price entry for a buy at price 1.05785 TP @ 1.05865. The BEAR is rather strong, I guess it should be a south point, but we will see, I am logging on to both sides, hopefully it will give me some good PIPS.

Ignored

Closed!
HAPPY PIPS!

#1,214,743
May 18, 2022 1:44am May 18, 2022 1:44am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting martin1977

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{quote} My speculation, it's heading south bound.

Ignored

Really, no need to speculate: Just check the progression of the move upward from lower TFs.

Here is the EURUSD M30 with the consolidation zone marked yesterday. Now there is an OBVIOUS lower high after price had closed below the zone, and now the down continuation is underway.

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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#1,214,744
May 18, 2022 1:56am May 18, 2022 1:56am

Js3mwtRc
Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Sharing EUR/USD Ideas and Insights | 15,430 Posts

Quoting DrDave

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{quote} Really, no need to speculate: Just check the progression of the move upward from lower TFs. Here is the EURUSD M30 with the consolidation zone marked yesterday. Now there is an OBVIOUS lower high after price had closed below the zone, and now the down continuation is underway. {image}

Ignored

Looking for profitable short term trades ...|

#1,214,745
May 18, 2022 3:32am May 18, 2022 3:32am

JauntyLoon
| Joined Jul 2021 | Status: Trader | 995 Posts

Quoting DrDave

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{quote} That is strictly dictated by the TF that you are evaluating.

Ignored

Yes of course. I've never been able to make money on hourly timeframes or less.

#1,214,746
May 18, 2022 3:33am May 18, 2022 3:33am

JauntyLoon
| Joined Jul 2021 | Status: Trader | 995 Posts

After having abstained from trading for two entire days (during big countertrend moves) we are shorting this overbought relief rally today.

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#1,214,747
May 18, 2022 4:35am May 18, 2022 4:35am

JauntyLoon
| Joined Jul 2021 | Status: Trader | 995 Posts

Quoting DrDave

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{quote} See if these help. The bottom image is the actual MN4 TF. The swing high of the current down swing was actually on the January 2021 bar. (So you can see the advantages of consulting the lower TF (MN1): a clear lower high was put in on the close of the marked May bar and is a 3-bar swing high at the close of the June bar.) By the way, I edited the original post: I wrote that your D1 chart was marked with MN1 swings but it should have been W1 swings. {image}{image}{image} {image}

Ignored

How is it a 'confirmed' up swing? Just looks like a small correction of a major downward move to me.

#1,214,748
May 18, 2022 4:43am May 18, 2022 4:43am

F.g
Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Trader | 10,372 Posts

Quoting OANDA

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{quote} Hi F.g I'm sorry I missed this. I was wondering if you were able to unfreeze the platform? Thanks Ton O.

Ignored

Man, hi. Yes it didn't last too long . But if you are traped with an unprotected position and losses keep running . . . then you are about increasing your pressure......

Fortunately I wasn't destroyed......

Kind regards

F.G.

#1,214,749
May 18, 2022 4:57am May 18, 2022 4:57am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting JauntyLoon

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{quote} How is it a 'confirmed' up swing? Just looks like a small correction of a major downward move to me.

Ignored

Maybe you are confusing "swing" and "trend". I spoke only of swing.

Two often used swing definitions are 3-bar and 5-bar swings.
The absolute simplest definitions are:
For a 3-bar swing low confirmation, the bar with the lowest low has the previous bar and subsequent bar with higher lows.
For a 5-bar swing low confirmation, the bar with the lowest low has the previous 2 bars and subsequent 2 bars with higher lows.

However, more complex definitions include some bar closes. It is up to the individual to decide which, if any, of the many definitions to use.

I have my own criteria to use for confirming a swing, but I often have a quick look for a 3-bar swing if doing some hindsight evaluations. Many times, when looking for a continuation swing to be confirmed for an entry, waiting for that 3rd bar to close results in entering quite a bit later than desired pricewise. Hence, better to use another confirmation method.

Confirming a change in trend direction is another matter entirely.

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#1,214,750
May 18, 2022 5:02am May 18, 2022 5:02am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting JauntyLoon

Disliked

{quote} How is it a 'confirmed' up swing? Just looks like a small correction of a major downward move to me.

Ignored

As presented, it indeed looks like a mere rally, unless other information tells you that it is NOT a rally but rather a reversal. That information may arrive later as the price movement unfolds.

This is why it is prudent to examine several TFs to gather information to guide your decision making.

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#1,214,751
May 18, 2022 5:14am May 18, 2022 5:14am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting JauntyLoon

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{quote} Yes of course. I've never been able to make money on hourly timeframes or less.

Ignored

It always seems odd to me when someone declares that he cannot make money on "small" TFs but can make money on "large" TFs, because it is well established that that financial time series are fractal-like in nature. That is, when a plot of price vs time is presented with no information about the TF used nor about the price units and intervals, it is absolutely impossible to determine which TF is being presented.

So, if exactly the same structures, patterns, etc. form on EVERY TF, then why isn't your trading system generic enough to enable capitalizing on the SAME setups that occur on EVERY TF?? I suspect that one of the reasons is that the system fails to make proper consideration of volatility such that the lower volatility of very small TFs is coupled with an unrealistic profit target.

I have made many posts that include neither the time scale nor the price scale because they are actually irrelevant to the discussion: The relevant materials are mainly the relative changes in price from bar-to-bar and the patterns that are (or are not) present.

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#1,214,752
May 18, 2022 5:18am May 18, 2022 5:18am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting F.g

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{quote} Man, hi. Yes it didn't last too long . But if you are traped with an unprotected position and losses keep running . . . then you are about increasing your pressure...... Fortunately I wasn't destroyed...... Kind regards F.G.

Ignored

What do you mean by "unprotected position"? If you mean no stop loss in place, then that is an invitation for disaster. Every position should have at least one "emergency" SL to prevent a huge account loss in the very scenario described above.

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#1,214,753
May 18, 2022 5:49am May 18, 2022 5:49am

JauntyLoon
| Joined Jul 2021 | Status: Trader | 995 Posts

Trend is determined by higher timeframe, trades are only taken on shorter time frames when they agree with the trend dictated by higher time frames.

Hourly charts and lower will spike (support and resistance are useless) your stops, whipsaw and give false 'signals' constantly.

#1,214,754
May 18, 2022 6:50am May 18, 2022 6:50am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting JauntyLoon

Disliked

Trend is determined by higher timeframe, trades are only taken on shorter time frames when they agree with the trend dictated by higher time frames. Hourly charts and lower will spike (support and resistance are useless) your stops, whipsaw and give false 'signals' constantly.

Ignored

Trend is determined by higher timeframe,
I disagree. I use higher TFs to establish the preferred trade direction, but it is the TFs below that that show the trend. And at any given moment, different TFs can be in different trends. This is how a retracement on the large TF can be traded.

And if you are looking at a TF that is showing a confirmed trend as your "higher TF", it is highly likely that an even higher TF is the "proper" TF for determining thr preferred trade direction.

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#1,214,755
May 18, 2022 7:21am May 18, 2022 7:21am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting JauntyLoon

Disliked

Trend is determined by higher timeframe, trades are only taken on shorter time frames when they agree with the trend dictated by higher time frames. Hourly charts and lower will spike (support and resistance are useless) your stops, whipsaw and give false 'signals' constantly.

Ignored

Hourly charts and lower will spike (support and resistance are useless) your stops, whipsaw and give false 'signals' constantly

As I said here, financial time series display a fractal-like nature. Therefore, if you can determine on one TF that "whipsaws" and "false signals" occur, then they also occur on every TF.

In addition, if it were actually true that whipsaws and false signals occurred constantly on some TF, then it is required that the occurrence of a rather smooth swing on a selected TF is a very, very rare condition. So, look at H1 and smaller TFs and actually determine objectively if this "rare occurrence" is actually rare, or if you have acquired a false bias.

In any case, what if the stop runs are made by bigger market participants that have access to the order books? They can make a decision about using a pool of orders in a specific area (especially areas where retail traders are taught to place stops) as an edge in their trading strategy. Even without any actual data from big market participants to support this conjecture, we can still use it as a model from which to devise a different strategy for stop placement.

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.