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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #85,261
  • May 9, 2022 8:43am May 9, 2022 8:43am
I currently have a sell on... 130.726 down to TP 130.471...
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My Future is so Bright I gotta wear Shades! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
  • #85,262
  • May 9, 2022 11:38am May 9, 2022 11:38am
Yen hit 20years low, Im courious when this shitty Boj wake up and do their job, last time, Im maked some good money from last top, now Im miss that h4 double top, super ride down and I dont maked money at this, waiting for pullback( if any ) to short this hard, TP will be 128
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,263
  • May 9, 2022 5:21pm May 9, 2022 5:21pm
Quoting ScalaFX
Yen hit 20years low, Im courious when this shitty Boj wake up and do their job, last time, Im maked some good money from last top, now Im miss that h4 double top, super ride down and I dont maked money at this, waiting for pullback( if any ) to short this hard, TP will be 128
Want little short 130.50 will add higher when goes there
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,264
  • May 9, 2022 9:57pm May 9, 2022 9:57pm
Quoting stjoeforex
I currently have a sell on... 130.726 down to TP 130.471... {image}
My view of the JPY....it's like a crazy crypto LOL just one direction!!!
I'm sharing a post I saw in my group of an analysis seems many traders are consolidating.
AND I also want to share an idea on my own trade setups for everyone to give some ideas and pointers

Post I think is good from author WPAT Analysis of USDJPY on H1 range to watch out: 128.722 - 131.204

---------
Trade setup Idea:
Indicators to use
- Parabolic SAR
- RSI
- Stochastics

Buy=
1. Parabolic SAR below candle
2. RSI oversold
3. Stoch oversold

Sell= opposite of buy setup


Expectations: use only on D1, H4, or H1
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Golfer that loves Forex
  • #85,265
  • May 9, 2022 11:56pm May 9, 2022 11:56pm
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote} Want little short 130.50 will add higher when goes there
Trailing stop closed at 130.20, +30 nice start of the day, will open some new when get higher for better RR
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,266
  • May 10, 2022 12:04am May 10, 2022 12:04am
Now short 130.42 TP 129.50 sl 130.70
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,267
  • Edited 8:03am May 10, 2022 5:44am | Edited 8:03am
I will buy the dip after Biden stops talking today. Biden is scheduled to talk about inflation, before the CPI report tomorrow. This should result in a nice temporary dip to buy after the market sells-off again once it realizes that inflation will not go away so fast.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/05/08/p...ech/index.html
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,268
  • May 10, 2022 6:06am May 10, 2022 6:06am
Quoting ScalaFX
Now short 130.42 TP 129.50 sl 130.70
Closing +40
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,269
  • May 10, 2022 7:48am May 10, 2022 7:48am
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,270
  • May 11, 2022 7:42am May 11, 2022 7:42am
buy USD everywhere, mega rally is coming
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,271
  • May 11, 2022 7:53am May 11, 2022 7:53am
US10Y looks bullish again, which will push stocks down and push the dollar up
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,272
  • May 11, 2022 9:18am May 11, 2022 9:18am
will it go back to the high then all the way to 135 which is a number that get's thrown around so much or is USD/JPY finally ready to make it's big fall?
  • #85,273
  • May 11, 2022 9:21am May 11, 2022 9:21am
Quoting petehnm
will it go back to the high then all the way to 135 which is a number that get's thrown around so much or is USD/JPY finally ready to make it's big fall?
I don't think that it will fall anytime soon. The dollar should be supported from current levels with small dips.
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,274
  • May 11, 2022 9:41am May 11, 2022 9:41am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} I don't think that it will fall anytime soon. The dollar should be supported from current levels with small dips. {image}


let's see how far of a dip we get today before it starts its way back up.
  • #85,275
  • May 11, 2022 9:54am May 11, 2022 9:54am
It's a trap!

---

I actually opened a short not long after the CPI release to test my hypothesis.

Signals:

  1. Downward channel in progress since the May 9 high at 131.33.
  2. Price breaks below previous upward channel (from May 4) overnight.
  3. Price breaks below support at 129.80 overnight.
  4. Price briefly pauses at 130.40 resistance after CPI release and starts moving downward.
  5. Banks** already talking about the "recession trade" (see quote).

The hardest part is watching the market?/algos?/brokers?/banks? move the price against you such that you REALLY REALLY start to regret your choices in life.

Seeing the momentum slow down around 130.80 (May 6, May 8 resistance) was enough to keep the short open a bit longer --- And for now, the trade is still good.

--

** https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/goldman-...edge-1.1764084

Quote
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. touted the currency as an ideal recession hedge and remarked on its ‘significant value’ in a note Tuesday. Scotiabank analysts made the case for a modest yen rebound in a report the same day.
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  • #85,276
  • Edited 10:51am May 11, 2022 10:14am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting ncbuhr
It's a trap! --- I actually opened a short not long after the CPI release to test my hypothesis. Signals: Downward channel in progress since the May 9 high at 131.33. Price breaks below previous upward channel (from May 4) overnight. Price breaks below support at 129.80 overnight. Price briefly pauses at 130.40 resistance after CPI release and starts moving downward. Banks** already talking about the "recession trade" (see quote). The hardest part is watching the market?/algos?/brokers?/banks? move the price against you such that you REALLY REALLY...
stocks are not rallying after the CPI report so far today, which means that the dollar could start to appreciate again

i would expect to see 800+ points for the DOW as a rally to show some signs of recovery
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,277
  • May 12, 2022 3:56am May 12, 2022 3:56am
Quoting ScalaFX
{quote} Yes! But is just a begining I think im locking some profit 30% from all, rest I will be holding much more
Oh yeah babe! Closing rest of positions, I must have more margin for full safety for GU longs, overall super profit but patience patience patience
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #85,278
  • May 12, 2022 5:01am May 12, 2022 5:01am
If JPY is being heavily bid, then that could signal a bigger stock market sell-off later
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,279
  • May 12, 2022 7:06am May 12, 2022 7:06am
128.5 is probably the key level on the daily chart to watch for

if you sell now, then you could be trapped
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,280
  • May 12, 2022 8:47am May 12, 2022 8:47am
Quoting ForexGoose
128.5 is probably the key level on the daily chart to watch for if you sell now, then you could be trapped {image} {image}

Another good example that levels, fibo etc. mean little in the forex market.
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