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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #85,241
  • May 5, 2022 6:01pm May 5, 2022 6:01pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} I want to be wiped out? Seems like u r the one with poor money management and thinking anyone on the wrong side will be “wiped out” anyway, i said earlier and im saying it again 131.25 is the mid term high (for few months at least)
if the trend is going against you and you continue to sell, then you are basically being wiped out. IT is not rocket science.

Rookies continue to get margin called.
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,242
  • May 5, 2022 9:18pm May 5, 2022 9:18pm
On to 137!
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,243
  • May 5, 2022 11:42pm May 5, 2022 11:42pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
I see a good possibility of testing the high tomorrow, i have sell limits starting from 130.80
First sell limit is activated
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  • #85,244
  • May 6, 2022 5:27am May 6, 2022 5:27am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} First sell limit is activated {image}
I'm buying dips as stock futures continue to fall down due to the risk of high inflation and a strong dollar. I bet we will have another day of stocks being heavily sold and the dollar appreciating.
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,245
  • May 6, 2022 7:02am May 6, 2022 7:02am
Quoting CandleFly
{quote} one down...
2 down----130.35 130.75 130.91 on my radar for next week to start.Have a good weekend. if we get to 130.06 before close today,I'll be suprised..
  • #85,246
  • May 6, 2022 10:07am May 6, 2022 10:07am
UJ is about to be dumped hard, buckle up!
either by today or early next week
  • #85,247
  • May 6, 2022 10:53am May 6, 2022 10:53am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
UJ is about to be dumped hard, buckle up! either by today or early next week
that is what she said
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,248
  • May 6, 2022 11:20am May 6, 2022 11:20am
Leaving this for reference:

https://www.litefinance.com/blog/ana...060522-130522/
Quote
...If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 135.00 – 140.00. The level of 128.52 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 124.50 – 122.50
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-ma...es-into-focus/
Quote
Again, do not try to pick a top in USD/JPY, but the bull trend may become harder work and we do favour yen outperformance on the crosses in what should become an increasingly difficult risk environment
https://think.ing.com/articles/usd-j...s-side-of-130/
Quote
Yet we doubt conditions are in place for the Japanese to justify own-account FX intervention this side of 130 and perhaps not even until 140

---

I've had my ass handed to me over the past year thinking technical resistance would hold at 108, 110, 115, 130, etc. Crazy to think even more multi-year highs being broken.

(Charts from LiteFinance)
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  • #85,249
  • May 6, 2022 1:07pm May 6, 2022 1:07pm
[quote=ncbuhr;13993425] I've had my ass handed to me over the past year thinking technical resistance would hold at 108, 110, 115, 130, etc. Crazy to think even more multi-year highs being broken. .............. I took a small hit--No worries for me..I trade naked charts--just support and resist..Also I learned not to trade when you have a bad cold and your mind isn't thinking clearly..Thats where I made my mistake..Before then I was 80-85 % hitting my targets..Just do what you do if you are profitable and don't revenge trade trying to get back whatever you lost.I tried that long ago--it works till you take that 1 hit and then it takes another month or more to make it back...Not worth it.. ..Take it slow and steady with good MM..
  • #85,250
  • May 6, 2022 2:17pm May 6, 2022 2:17pm
Bulls next week
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,251
  • May 6, 2022 4:49pm May 6, 2022 4:49pm
Quoting ncbuhr
Leaving this for reference: https://www.litefinance.com/blog/ana...060522-130522/{quote}https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-ma...es-into-focus/{quote}https://think.ing.com/articles/usd-j...s-side-of-130/{quote} --- I've had my ass handed to me over the past year thinking technical resistance would hold at 108, 110, 115, 130, etc. Crazy to think even more multi-year highs being broken. (Charts from LiteFinance) {image}...

My name is Bloopity Bloop and I endorse the above message.

My charts still show no pullback. the 128 hit I said was coming, was a small correction.
The best way that Elliot waves were explained to me was this way

Wave 1. Speculators and Banks get in. These are highly skilled traders and those who know exactly where the banks are coming in.. IE NOT US. This wave is hard to catch.
Wave 2. Wave 1 participants taking profits. Why so small? Because they only need to show a 4-10% yearly gain to be seen as successful.
Wave 3 Professional traders who waited for confirmation at first, and as it goes on, run of the mill traders, and some fomo traders.
Wave 4 This is a deep correction because it is the profit taking from the largest group. Wave 3 is usually the largest.
Wave 5 Fomo trader, those late to the game and some pro scalpers.

Don't think about this in trading. Think about it in LIFE. One guy starts a trend. A few folks pick up on it.. then folks make fun of those folks until they are overpowered and suddenly everyone is wearing, or saying whatever the first guy started. Then folks get tired of it.. Finally it goes into the FINAL SALE bucket and those who didn't or couldn't get in before jump on board until finally EVERYONE agrees.. the trend is over with. Elliot Waves

So with that said.. I just don't see a wave 4 having happened. We have yet to break a trendline to the north. I am still eying 128 for it when it does come into play though. I don't think we have seen the last of that. If I am right.. the scary part of all this is.. that which goes up.... BOOM. Sure WE are going to sell the holy bricks off this thing.. but folks who are just living day to day.. ouch.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #85,252
  • May 7, 2022 11:41am May 7, 2022 11:41am
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands demonstrate active ascending trading dynamics. The price range expands from above, freeing a path to new record highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator reversed to growth while trying to form a new buy signal (the histogram is about to consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic reacted only by a reversal in a horizontal plane, indicating an approximate balance of sentiment in the short and ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 130.79, 131.24, 132, 133 | Support levels: 130.00, 129.39, 128.62, 127.5
  • #85,253
  • May 7, 2022 11:56am May 7, 2022 11:56am
https://corporate.nordea.com/article...ts-peak-yields
Quote
We expect the Fed to hike rates by 50bp in June and July, followed by 25bp hikes until the rate reaches 3.5%.
Quote
We expect the USD to continue to benefit from even higher rates, tighter liquidity and elevated uncertainty in financial markets.
Quote
The yen now stands around 130, a 20-year low versus the US dollar. Back in 2002, USD/JPY topped at 135 and we expect USD/JPY to move towards this level by end-2022. At some point, the peak USD bullishness will turn around and we expect USD/JPY to move lower during the second half of next year.

Hmm...
  • #85,254
  • May 8, 2022 2:54pm May 8, 2022 2:54pm
USDJPY price action is sideways on the daily time frame as the market tackles the 130.60/131.78 the multi-year resistance zone (purple). Although, technically, bulls still have the edge, there has been an increase in bearish pressure for several days and we may see at least a bearish correction to an area of value such as the 128.00/127.0 daily demand zone (green).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #85,255
  • May 8, 2022 4:45pm May 8, 2022 4:45pm
I have been doing some analysis over the weekend, I have 2 possible scenarios for Uj for this week:
1- retesting the highs (130.80-131.20) and then dropping 300-400 pips
2- making a new fake high (131.70-132.20) and then dropping hard 300-400 pips
Im 90% certain this week candle will be a big fat bearish candle, again i might be wrong but this is my analysis
  • #85,256
  • May 8, 2022 8:16pm May 8, 2022 8:16pm
Has the bear train started moving? Well I have started selling and will be adding shortly, however, i recommend to wait for 4 hours candle close and even better the day close, you can jump in once price retraces
  • #85,257
  • May 8, 2022 8:50pm May 8, 2022 8:50pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
Has the bear train started moving? Well I have started selling and will be adding shortly, however, i recommend to wait for 4 hours candle close and even better the day close, you can jump in once price retraces
why are you selling when it is going up as the USD is the safe haven?
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #85,258
  • May 8, 2022 11:49pm May 8, 2022 11:49pm
And there you have it..

  1. May 5, 2022 8:19amQuoting CandleFly

130.35 130.75 130.91 on my radar for next week to start.

  • #85,259
  • May 9, 2022 6:46am May 9, 2022 6:46am
I've been bullish on this pair..but could this be the start of the breakdown...?
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  • #85,260
  • May 9, 2022 7:52am May 9, 2022 7:52am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
Has the bear train started moving? Well I have started selling and will be adding shortly, however, i recommend to wait for 4 hours candle close and even better the day close, you can jump in once price retraces
Closing my shorts here, seems we will have another leg up to 132.10
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