EURUSD

Does anyone think it will drop below 1.0540 this week?

@StivSha - Hey that is NOT a stupid question, actually it's a very good intuitive question.

Here's the problem and it's a cliche: Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

For example, using EUR/USD (my personal opinions and experience). A few weeks ago when FOMC Powell testified that the FED would be raising rates by 0.5% at the next 2 meetings it caused the DXY to spike and reach it's current level of 103.XX - (i.e., Buy the rumor).

Now after the announcement that the FED will raise rates 0.5% traders are looking for a clue about June's meeting. If the "prepare" the market for 0.5% odds are DXY continues north. If the FED says anything about possibly slowing rate increases look for price to drop EVEN THOUGH they raise rates!!!!

Let's provide another example using this Friday's NFP report.

When it get's "leaked" or the rumors start (typically 3-4 days before) E/U moves in the direction of the rumor. Then Friday comes and the results are exactly as predicted so the price rebounds to where it started - buy the rumor and sell the fact (could also be sell the rumor and buy the facts).

I hope that helps unmuddy the waters.

PERSONALLY:

It wouldn't shock me if EU rose after the meeting but longer term I am a dollar bull and Euro bear. USA interest rates are going to top 3% by the EOY and the EU hasn't event talked about their FIRST 0.25% increase and frankly with the war in Ukraine and energy crisis I understand their reluctance.

what if they only raise rate by 0.25 only instead of 0.50 ? and wait for the BCE rate in June

I don't think that the ECB will raise rates in June, the market expects the first on July one month later, but it is unlikelly as one ECB official noted yesterday. Also its unlikelly for the FED to go with a smaller increase today from what the market expects. The problem is in prices and this is the right way to get rid of them with all the consequences it may face later.

If the FED rate is OVER 1% it will be a SUPER BULLISH in EUR/USD or UNDER 1%

eur / usd.
in my opinion it will be a bull correction.

taking into account certain contexts, eur / usd is already in an oversold condition.
they have to strike a balance over time.
it's just my opinion.

H4.

Wait for the press conference. Don't touch this pair now. You can be wiped out easily.

It s a finished story for me. . . . . SOUTH now.

bears should be targeting 102 now on DXY

....15:08 EST. and my OANDA platform is frozen at 1.05 20 ......

I feel sorry that your platform is frozen, I have been there and it is annoying.

1.07 possible

so far so good

EU bounced after FED failed to deliver more on rates, but EU is heavy yet on bigger timeframes.

I expect a drop below 0578 and then a fall around 0520/30 (see image)

Resistance after this daily hign at 0642 is at 0655 and then 0703.

8 pips from your entry, did you get in?!

They have seen many times at serious S / R levels that the price goes through them as if they weren't even there
we'll see.
peace.

I have a hedging opportunity, but I'm still waiting for it to develop better ... before I open a position.
I'm waiting now.