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  • #1,214,321
  • Edited 2:50am May 4, 2022 1:05am | Edited 2:50am
i think if there will be an interest rate hike in USD it will be most sensitive to eur / usd.
+ There will be more USD news on Friday and if good?
  • #1,214,322
  • May 4, 2022 1:16am May 4, 2022 1:16am
Anyone think the USD is fully priced in on the hike news? Meaning, upon the actual hike announcement the USD won't increase much, or not at all?
  • #1,214,323
  • May 4, 2022 1:16am May 4, 2022 1:16am
EU can see a quick drop to 0400 today.

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  • #1,214,324
  • May 4, 2022 1:21am May 4, 2022 1:21am
Quoting phamlogg
Anyone think the USD is fully priced in on the hike news? Meaning, upon the actual hike announcement the USD won't increase much, or not at all?
let’s be more careful because they can’t know that.
  • #1,214,325
  • May 4, 2022 1:40am May 4, 2022 1:40am
ready
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  • #1,214,326
  • May 4, 2022 1:48am May 4, 2022 1:48am
Quoting hesron
may be nothing hike intrest rate USD for this month {image}
more likely a re-distribution phase and mark down
chaos is just unknown order
  • #1,214,327
  • May 4, 2022 1:50am May 4, 2022 1:50am
Hi, all! I guess we're witnessing unique times, folks. These days, the EUR/USD is testing historical support.
Given Fed's hike today and possibly many other monetary policy decisions, we may soon see EUR/USD parity.
Covid, war, inflation... => volatility, parity... take care, all! Good hunting!
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  • #1,214,328
  • May 4, 2022 1:54am May 4, 2022 1:54am
Quoting phamlogg
Anyone think the USD is fully priced in on the hike news? Meaning, upon the actual hike announcement the USD won't increase much, or not at all?
It's been priced in, but you have to watch what Powell has to say about the future path on rates and tightening

A quick help:
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Direction Hinges On Fed's Answer To One Question

https://www.efxdata.com/insights/90c...840f80883.html
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  • #1,214,329
  • May 4, 2022 2:12am May 4, 2022 2:12am
the euro has so far been vulnerable to interest rate hikes.
GBP, AUD, USD.NZD.
  • #1,214,330
  • May 4, 2022 2:16am May 4, 2022 2:16am
Quoting TudorIoan
Hi, all! I guess we're witnessing unique times, folks. These days, the EUR/USD is testing historical support. Given Fed's hike today and possibly many other monetary policy decisions, we may soon see EUR/USD parity. Covid, war, inflation... => volatility, parity... take care, all! Good hunting! {image}
Price action doesn't show anything bullish yet. Probably a break to the downside
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  • #1,214,331
  • May 4, 2022 2:28am May 4, 2022 2:28am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Price action doesn't show anything bullish yet. Probably a break to the downside
That's right.
My whole point was in fact bearish... "parity soon" is something even more bearish
PA helps, but I guess it all depends on Fed's hikes/conference ...and ECB's tweets
This hike is definitely priced in, but I'd hold my trading at Powell's...
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  • #1,214,332
  • May 4, 2022 4:29am May 4, 2022 4:29am
if the eur / usd - usd / chf correlation is lost forever.
then there will be the end of the euro.
it's just my opinion.
  • #1,214,333
  • May 4, 2022 4:50am May 4, 2022 4:50am
Quoting tiborf71
if the eur / usd - usd / chf correlation is lost forever. then there will be the end of the euro. it's just my opinion.
Currently this correlation stands to 91 on Daily, but it does mean nothing when correlation isn't the cause for a drop, or an advance.

How did you come with that? CHF is not so strong now with the war in Ukraine, Covid-19 and China and its opposite the US Dollar, meaning we'll have to see USDCHF falling according your opinion.
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  • #1,214,334
  • May 4, 2022 4:55am May 4, 2022 4:55am
Quoting Nordling
Wow, what a month this has been. Made 4780 pips and 79% equity growth with 75% winrate Closed and banked my EU, GU shorts in profit. Tomorrow and Friday will be important for the direction of Dollar and Euro. I remember some naysayers were criticising me for my EU and GU shorts but again they are proved wrong. This is not even fun anymore, just the routine haha Btw the account is not micro anymore, there 1k dollars in it. Still a small capital but not so bad huh? {image} https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Nor...plorer/9447980...
Impressing for now. Let's see in longer term.
  • #1,214,335
  • May 4, 2022 5:18am May 4, 2022 5:18am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Currently this correlation stands to 91 on Daily, but it does mean nothing when correlation isn't the cause for a drop, or an advance. How did you come with that? CHF is not so strong now with the war in Ukraine, Covid-19 and China and its opposite the US Dollar, meaning we'll have to see USDCHF falling according your opinion.
you don't understand me.
as long as this correlation is at the usual level, the market is healthy.
sustainability of balance.
The eur / usd-usdchf relationship provides many trading opportunities.
  • #1,214,336
  • May 4, 2022 5:31am May 4, 2022 5:31am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} you don't understand me. as long as this correlation is at the usual level, the market is healthy. sustainability of balance. The eur / usd-usdchf relationship provides many trading opportunities.
EU could drop below parity for any reason and this could be one, but what could possible go wrong for the Dollar! A recession only, but the economy yet is strong and Powell is going to raise rates.

I don't trust indicators so much, they only indicate what allready has happened.
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  • #1,214,337
  • May 4, 2022 5:48am May 4, 2022 5:48am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} EU could drop below parity for any reason and this could be one, but what could possible go wrong for the Dollar! A recession only, but the economy yet is strong and Powell is going to raise rates. I don't trust indicators so much, they only indicate what allready has happened.
Usd / chf does not fully show the strength of the USD.
the eur / usd-usdchf connection does not require any indicators.
just look for equilibrium. the best time frame is M15, M30, H1.
place both pairs on a chart.
the most important news here can affect the result as well.
GOOD LUCK FOR RESEARCH.
  • #1,214,338
  • May 4, 2022 5:57am May 4, 2022 5:57am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} Usd / chf does not fully show the strength of the USD. the eur / usd-usdchf connection does not require any indicators. just look for equilibrium. the best time frame is M15, M30, H1. place both pairs on a chart. the most important news here can affect the result as well. GOOD LUCK FOR RESEARCH.
I was thinking a higher timeframe when I readed your post, I didn't knew you work on so small timeframes.

I prefer using bigger timeframes to avoid this noise from imbalances
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  • #1,214,339
  • May 4, 2022 6:14am May 4, 2022 6:14am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I was thinking a higher timeframe when I readed your post, I didn't knew you work on so small timeframes. I prefer using bigger timeframes to avoid this noise from imbalances
there is no noise here with this strategy. here a position must be opened if the balance is upset.
each time frame must be analyzed M15 - H1 THE BALANCE IS REALLY upset?
and depending on that, we open a position.
eur/usd,usd/chf,eurchf.
  • #1,214,340
  • May 4, 2022 6:31am May 4, 2022 6:31am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} there is no noise here with this strategy. here a position must be opened if the balance is upset. each time frame must be analyzed M15 - H1 THE BALANCE IS REALLY upset? and depending on that, we open a position. eur/usd,usd/chf,eurchf.
Now I get it! I don't use correlation very much only to connect the dots with fundamentals if, they agree with the main trend, then its ok, but I may not use it at all.

Good luck today!
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