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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,461
  • Apr 3, 2022 2:21pm Apr 3, 2022 2:21pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the USDJPY market is bullish. On the monthly time frame, market operation printed a relatively big bullish candlestick in March and flipped the 115.00 area (green) as horizontal support – the first time the area was breached northward since February 2017. The March bullish market operation surged to the 124.00/126.00 multi-year horizontal resistance area (purple) before retracing, resulting in the printing of a bullish candlestick with a relatively significant top-shadow; which indicates bearish pressure.

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USDJPY market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish. However, it is experiencing bearish pressure. Last week, bulls drove market operation into the 124.00/126.00 multi-year horizontal resistance area (purple) but the move was resisted by bears, resulting in the printing of a bullish candlestick with long upper tail more than 150 pips below the zone. Nevertheless, we may see bulls make another attempt to regain market control in the early part of this week.

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame turned sideways after making 38.2 Fib retracement of the bullish 114.80/125.10 swing. Should bulls regain market control, we may see further northward market engineering in the early part of this week. The 124.00/126.00 area (purple) is a multi-year horizontal resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily_Apr. 3, 2022.png Size: 35 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,462
  • Apr 3, 2022 2:46pm Apr 3, 2022 2:46pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation turned bearish in March after breaking down the 1.26000 horizontal support (blue) that had been in place for three months. On the monthly time frame, the 1.23600 area (green) is the short-term horizontal support, while the medium-term handle is at the 1.20600 area (purple).

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USDCAD market operation on the weekly time frame is in a corrective mode under a bearish environment. Presently, market operation is 100 pips above the 1.23600 horizontal support (green), and we may not see much directional momentum while market operation tackles the area. However, a significant southward breakdown of the area may see bears expose the 1.20600 handle (purple).

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Price action on the daily time frame is ranging after a southward swing that began on March 15, 2022. We may see a northward market engineering for liquidity grab before a southward continuation. The 1.23600 area (green) is a near-term horizontal support; the 1.20600 handle (purple) is a major horizontal support that may be relevant in the medium-term.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_Apr. 3, 2022.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,463
  • Apr 3, 2022 3:03pm Apr 3, 2022 3:03pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is bearish on the monthly time frame. The bearish candlestick printed in March broke down the 1.33100 former horizontal support (blue). The 1.28730 area (green) is presently the near-term horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is bearish. There was a bullish retracement three weeks ago, but it was not significant, giving way to an evening star pattern that formed in the last three weeks. This portends a bearish follow-through.

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GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame turned sideways after a bullish retracement of a downward swing that began from 1.36200 on February 23, 2022. We may see a bearish re-test of the 1.29700/1.28500 demand zone (green) that has been in place since November 4, 2020.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_Apr. 3, 2022.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,464
  • Apr 3, 2022 3:26pm Apr 3, 2022 3:26pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is bearish. On the monthly time frame, bearish market operation in March surged into the 1.10200/1.07300 demand zone (green) before pulling back northwards. It is a zone that had been untested since May 2020 and we would see further market operation within the zone. Presently, market operation is at the upper boundary of the zone.

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Four weeks ago, EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame issued a relatively long doji-like candlestick at the 1.08820/1.07700 weekly demand zone (blue) – which is nestled in the 1.10200/1.07300 demand zone (green). This was followed by a bullish market operation a week later. However, the last two weeks have been sideways, with last week’s market operation printing a long top-tailed bullish candlestick. This indicates that bears are still influential in the market, but there is limited directional momentum.

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EURUSD price action on the daily time frame is in consolidating mode within a rising wedge in the context of a bearish technical environment. On Wednesday, price action retested the wedge resistance trendline and the 1.11200 horizontal resistance (red), but a bearish rejection candlestick was issued on Thursday. Friday’s bearish continuation print was not significant as price action tackles the upper boundary of the significant 1.10200/1.07300 monthly demand zone (green). We may see further bearish push in the early part of this week, but we cannot rule out further corrective price action as the 1.10200/1.07300 monthly demand zone (green) is tackled.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,465
  • Apr 10, 2022 2:19pm Apr 10, 2022 2:19pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market is bullish. On the weekly time frame, the last four weeks have seen the printing of bullish continuation candlesticks. Presently, market operation is tackling the 124.140/127.230 multi-year supply zone (purple).

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On the daily time frame, USDJPY price action is tackling the lower boundary of the 124.140/127.230 multi-year supply zone (purple) seen on the weekly time frame. This is the second such attempt in the last 10 days – the first attempt ten days ago resulted in a bearish pullback. We may see further bullish move in the early part of this week before any bearish correction.

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USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is in consolidation within the context of a bullish technical structure. Presently, it is tackling the lower boundary of the 124.140/127.230 multi-year supply zone (purple) seen on the weekly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,466
  • Apr 10, 2022 2:36pm Apr 10, 2022 2:36pm
Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook EURUSD market operation is bearish. On the monthly time frame, bearish market operation in March surged into the 1.10200/1.07300 demand zone (green) before pulling back northwards. It is a zone that had been untested since May 2020 and we would see further market operation within the zone. Presently, market operation is at the upper boundary of the zone. {image} Four weeks ago, EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame issued a relatively long doji-like candlestick at the 1.08820/1.07700 weekly demand zone...
Thank yuo so much KeenPips for taking the time to write such super theories, really insightful
  • #1,467
  • Apr 10, 2022 2:40pm Apr 10, 2022 2:40pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation on the weekly time frame is bearish but presently consolidating. Three weeks ago, it made a bearish surge to the 1.24380 horizontal support (blue). Two weeks ago, there was a bullish pullback but there was little momentum shift and it resulted in the printing of an indecision candlestick. The fact that last week’s bullish print could not close above the open of the bearish candlestick printed three weeks ago is another indication of lack of directional momentum.

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USDCAD price action on the daily time frame is in consolidation. Last Tuesday, price action initiated a bullish pullback of the most recent bearish swing from the 1.28700 area (magenta) but Friday’s price action printed a bearish pushback.

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USDCAD price action on the H4 time frame is in consolidation but the technical structure is bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,468
  • Apr 10, 2022 3:13pm Apr 10, 2022 3:13pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is disposed southwards as it attempts a breakdown of the 1.06370 horizontal support area (blue) that it has tried to breach southwards several times since March 2020. A significant bearish breakdown of the area would expose the long-term 1.04310/1.02560 monthly demand zone (green) as a consequential target of bears in the foreseeable future. On the weekly time frame, market operation continues to grind southwards within a falling wedge (magenta) and, presently, at the wedge support trendline. Although we would see corrective northward operation, technicals favour bears more than bulls, and such northward market operation would give way to a southward continuation.

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On the daily time frame, EURUSD price action is retesting the 1.09210/1.08060 daily demand (light green) after a bearish swing from the 1.11790/1.11187 horizontal resistance (magenta). Presently, there is a reduced bearish drive as bulls resist a breakdown of the zone. Nevertheless, technicals favour bears more than bulls, and any northward price action would be corrective.

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EURUSD price action on the H4 time frame has broken down a rising wedge (blue) within which it was consolidating. Presently, it is in a consolidating mode as it tackles the 1.09210/1.08060 daily demand (light green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4_Apr. 10, 2022.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,469
  • Apr 10, 2022 3:36pm Apr 10, 2022 3:36pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is sideways at the 1.30310 area. On the weekly time frame, market operation is in a mini-bearish technical structure, but a significant bearish breakdown of the 1.30310 area would incentivize bears to target the 1.27490 horizontal support (blue). The 1.25120/1.23150 weekly demand (green) would be consequential in the foreseeable future – the area has not been tested since the second week of July 2020.

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GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is tackling the 1.30310 minor horizontal support but potentially poised for a retest of the 1.27780/1.26730 daily demand zone (light green). a zone which has not been tested since October 28, 2020.

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On the H4 time frame, GBPUSD price action made 61.8/78.6 Fib zonal retracement of the bearish 1.34160/1.30000 trading range (purple) on March 23, 2022, before a southward rotation. On Friday, there was a bearish surge below the range, but a bullish snap back resulted in the printing of a bullish hammer at the lower boundary of the trading range. Although we may have further bullish price action, bears are more favoured than bulls, and any such bullish price action would give way to a southward rotation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,470
  • Apr 17, 2022 2:09pm Apr 17, 2022 2:09pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation is bullish. On the weekly time frame, market operation is trying to retest the 127.670/131.340 monthly supply zone (purple), an area which has never been tested since May 2002.

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is in a bullish mode. However, there is decline in bullish momentum and we may see a bearish correction.

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USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is bullish but experiencing increased bearish pressure.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,471
  • Apr 17, 2022 2:35pm Apr 17, 2022 2:35pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation is in a sideways mode in a technically bearish environment. On the weekly time frame, four weeks ago, USDCAD bearish market operation attempted a retest of the 1.23780/1.22970 horizontal support area (green) but failed. Since then, bulls have pushed back northwards, but there has been no significant northward momentum.

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USDCAD price action on the daily time frame turned sideways after making about 61.8 Feb retracement of the downward swing from the 1.28700 area (red). The technical structure from the W1 tf favours bears more than bulls. We may see bearish continuation this week.

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USDCAD price action on the H4 time frame is in a corrective phase within a bearish trading range. There was a bullish retracement of the downtrend for much of the past two weeks in April, but price action turned sideways last week Thursday. We may see a bearish rotation this week, to align with the preceding trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,472
  • Apr 17, 2022 3:05pm Apr 17, 2022 3:05pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is bearish. However, meanwhile, on the weekly time frame, it has turned sideways as it approaches the 1.28730/1.26940 significant, multi-year horizontal support (green).

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GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways in a technically bearish environment. Further bearish drive would be targeting value areas within the 1.28730/1.26940 significant, multi-year horizontal support (green). As price action tackles the southward value areas, any bullish drive would be corrective.

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GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame is sideways in a technically bearish environment. 1.31650/1.29710 is the operating range (blue). Meanwhile, price action is sideways within the middle of the range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,473
  • Apr 17, 2022 3:37pm Apr 17, 2022 3:37pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is bearish. On the weekly time frame, it is tackling the 1.08100 horizontal support area, the origin of a bullish market operation in the second week of May 2020 and which has never been visited since then. The bearish approach to the area has been hindered by bullish resistance, resulting in some sideways of market operation until last week when a bearish continuation candlestick surged to the area. However, the bottom shadow on last week’s bearish candlestick indicates that bulls are still defending the area against a bearish breach. Thus, we may still have some sideways of market operation in the area. But a significant bearish breach may expose the 1.06340 handle (blue). The 1.05800/1.03740 area (green) is a significant monthly demand zone.

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After a 50 Fib retracement of the 1.14900/1.08100 bearish swing on March 30, 2022, EURUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways around the 1.08100 significant horizontal support seen on the weekly time frame. A significant bearish breakdown of the area would see further southward drive, otherwise we may see more sideways or a bullish correction within the 1.14900/1.08100 bearish trading range (purple) before a bearish rotation.

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EURUSD price action on the H4 time frame is sideways, but the technical structure and order flow context favour bears than bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4_Apr. 17, 2022.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,474
  • Apr 24, 2022 2:54pm Apr 24, 2022 2:54pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation is bullish. On the weekly time frame, market operation has been braking above multi-year horizontal resistances since the last week in February 2022. Three weeks ago, market operation broke above the 123.00/124.60 multi-year horizontal resistance area (green), an area that has not been breached since December 2015. Last week, market operation printed a bullish continuation candlestick which surged to another multi-year horizontal resistance area, the 129.30 area (purple); an area traceable to May 2002. But the fact that last week’s bullish candlestick has an upper shadow is indicative of increase in bearish pressure.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is ranging as it tackles the 129.30 multi-year horizontal resistance area seen on the weekly time frame. Last week Friday, price action printed a doji-like candlestick, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum. An increase in bearish pressure may see a southward correction to retest an area of value, such as the 125.750/125.060 area (blue).

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There is a decline in bullish momentum on the H4 time frame, and USDJPY price action is in a corrective mode. A significant bearish breakdown of the 127.40 minor handle (light green) may see further decline, but there are more significant barriers to sustainable southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4_Apr. 24, 2022.png Size: 30 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,475
  • Apr 24, 2022 3:05pm Apr 24, 2022 3:05pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation is within the 1.23800/1.28730 horizontal channel (purple). On the weekly time frame, market operation is presently in a bullish mode within the channel. Last week, market operation printed a long-tailed bullish continuation candlestick which closed about 150 pips below the upper boundary of the 500-pip range. And there are ‘top-wicky’ prints in the upper region, which may incentivize northward market engineering.

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USDCAD price action on the daily time frame is bullish. On Friday, price action broke above the 1.26420 horizontal resistance area (magenta) with a relatively big bullish candlestick; the area had held as resistance for eight days. Should bulls maintain their influence in the market, we may see further northward push. The 1.28730 area is long-term horizontal resistance and may be a target of bullish ambition.

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USDCAD price action on the H4 time frame is in a bullish mode. But there was a bearish pressure in the last H4-session on Friday. It is interesting to note that price action is tackling a minor horizontal resistance at the 1.27100 area (blue), which is aligned with the mid-point of an extended ‘M’ pattern. Technically, such an area may offer sideways of price action, or even a bearish correction, before a northward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4_Apr. 24, 2022.png Size: 59 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,476
  • Apr 24, 2022 3:26pm Apr 24, 2022 3:26pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is bearish. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation broke below the 1.08700 horizontal support area (purple) and last week’s doji-like candlestick has a bearish flavour. Further significant bearish drive would expose the 1.05800/1.04870 multi-year horizontal support zone (green).

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The technical structure of EURUSD on the daily time frame is bearish – the 1.08700 former horizontal support area (purple) having been flipped as resistance. However, presently, EURUSD price action is sideways.

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EURUSD price action on the H4 time frame is sideways in a technically bearish environment. A significant bearish breakdown of the 1.07550 area (blue) on a daily closing basis may ignite further southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4_Apr. 24, 2022.png Size: 43 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,477
  • Apr 24, 2022 3:39pm Apr 24, 2022 3:39pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is bearish. On the weekly time frame, the 1.32500 area, which has served as a major horizontal support for quite a long while, has been broken down. Last week, market operation printed a relatively big bearish continuation candlestick, making the 1.29800/1.31300 area (red) a weekly supply zone.

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The technical structure and order flow of GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame favour bears. On Friday, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke down the 1.29800/1.30620 area (magenta), nestled in the 1.29800/1.31300 weekly supply zone, flipping it as the operating horizontal resistance.

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GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame is bearish. However, there is decline in bearish momentum, and we may see some corrective price action before any further southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,478
  • May 1, 2022 2:28pm May 1, 2022 2:28pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY is bullish. On the monthly time frame, in April, market operation broke above the 124.170 multi-year horizontal resistance area (blue), which was last visited in August 2015. The relatively big bullish candlestick printed in April surged to another multi-year horizontal resistance area, located at 130.600 (purple).

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USDJPY market operation on the weekly time frame is bullish. However, it is experiencing bearish pressure as it tackles the 130.600 multi-year horizontal resistance area (purple). Last week’s bullish continuation candlestick has shadows on both ends, which indicates a struggle for market influence at the 130.600 horizontal resistance area by buyers and sellers. Besides, as the last eight weeks have seen parabolic bullish move, USDJPY market operation may soon experience a bearish correction.

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is respecting an inner rising trendline (magenta) after a parabolic move that rejected an outer rising trendline (red) traceable to March 4, 2022. On Friday, price action printed a bearish rejection candlestick at the 130.600 multi-year horizontal resistance area (magenta). Thus, we cannot rule out a corrective bearish pullback, perhaps to the outer rising trendline (red) or a value area such as the 127.100 horizontal support (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,479
  • May 1, 2022 2:54pm May 1, 2022 2:54pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD maintained a bullish tone in April but, technically, market operation is within the 1.24830/1.28620 horizontal channel. The 1.28620 horizontal resistance area (red) has remained the operating horizontal resistance on the monthly time frame since February 2021, and the 1.24830 area (green) is the operating horizontal support.

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USDCAD market operation on the weekly time frame is ranging within the bearish 1.33900/1.20000 trading range (blue).

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USDCAD price action on the daily time frame is ranging within a wedge (purple), and presently at the wedge resistance trendline. It is also at the 1.28620 horizontal resistance area (red) seen on the monthly time frame. Recent price action favours bulls more than bears, and we may see a northward market engineering in the early part of this week before any southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_May 1, 2022.png Size: 60 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,480
  • May 1, 2022 3:13pm May 1, 2022 3:13pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD is bearish. On the monthly time frame, market operation printed a relatively big bearish continuation candlestick in April after a breakdown of the previous 1.32700 horizontal support in March. Presently, the 1.22600 area (green) is the operating horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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GBPUSD market operation is bearish on the weekly time frame. Two weeks ago, market operation made a bearish break of a horizontal support and was continued last week, establishing the 1.31360/1.29740 area (purple) as a fresh supply zone. The bearish print of last week has a lower tail, indicating a bullish pressure as market operation approaches the 1.22600 horizontal support (green) seen on the monthly time frame. Technically, we may see a bullish correction, perhaps to retest the broken-down intermediate horizontal support at the 1.27490 area (blue).

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Price action on the daily time frame is making a bullish correction of a bearish swing. The longer-term technical structure favours bears, so any further bullish move would be temporary. A bullish retest of the 1.27490 broken-down horizontal support (blue), followed by a significant bearish rejection on a daily closing basis, would incentivize bears for a drive towards the 1.22600 horizontal support seen on the monthly time frame.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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