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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #84,661
  • Mar 22, 2022 8:19am Mar 22, 2022 8:19am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} 118 is mine, even though I think BoJ will step in and bring this below 115.
umm we are at 120... what am I reading wrong?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,662
  • Mar 22, 2022 8:33am Mar 22, 2022 8:33am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} umm we are at 120... what am I reading wrong?
Missing your point here. I know where we are at.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #84,663
  • Mar 22, 2022 9:27am Mar 22, 2022 9:27am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} 118 is mine, even though I think BoJ will step in and bring this below 115.
You said 118 was where you thought it would stop at.. unless you meant we would bounce off that and back to the highs?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,664
  • Mar 22, 2022 9:53am Mar 22, 2022 9:53am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} You said 118 was where you thought it would stop at.. unless you meant we would bounce off that and back to the highs?
To be honest, no idea. I think we will see 118 relatively soon, but might be wrong there, of course. But what happens if we reached it, is yet to see. This whole move is a mystery to me...both technically and fundamentally. If this is a pump before a dump, then it makes sense, otherwise...
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #84,665
  • Mar 22, 2022 9:55am Mar 22, 2022 9:55am
My take is if it break below 120.36 and hold there, we will have a correction, or else, price will go back up.
  • #84,666
  • Mar 22, 2022 11:53am Mar 22, 2022 11:53am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Makes perfect sense to me. Yen is a risk currency. The world is about to get risky as hell. If I were a market maker I would be driving the price down so I could get in low and watch it soar. The same thing happens to the market right before big news. The market will suddenly shoot up to a point of resistance only to then turn around on the news. (or down). Same appears to be happening here just on a grander scale. I am just waiting on the signal that shit is fucked up. Til then stacking crypto and watching the yen win.
This makes sense. The big boys are already stocked up on dollar. Please fill me in when you get the signal of the world turning upside down so I can join the race to buy Yen. So I imagine Euro tumbling into the abyss and Yen skyrocketing. Shorting EURJPY then would be fun.
  • #84,667
  • Mar 22, 2022 3:34pm Mar 22, 2022 3:34pm
Famous quote

"When you're looking for the top, you miss the trend"

Erebus 2022

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #84,668
  • Mar 22, 2022 3:42pm Mar 22, 2022 3:42pm
To say this is the top would be too easy…So…MOT @ 120.04
  • #84,669
  • Mar 22, 2022 6:13pm Mar 22, 2022 6:13pm
Was watching for 118-120 area for a year. Lmao I missed the fastest largest impulse. And shorted it!!

this last move is my guess result of commodity spike (Yen being very sensitive as a net importing country) and more aggressive Fed hiking bets in the market (UST10Y yield up up up).

with that said.

at least near term

the USDJPY looks like it’s ready to chill out some. Hard to say on such strong bullish move. But I’m not seeing the volume strength for such hard moves. Never a sure thing but if China economy takes a harder fall (Evergrande I don’t even know what’s going on tbh) there is a lot of Japanese money in that economy that likes to repatriate back to Japan on troubling times.

im usually too early to get into trades and too early to leave them. Heck maybe USDJPY hits 125/130 before we see 119 ever again. Idk.

if I hadn’t taken a nice nose bleed trying to short too soon I’d be ready to sell the crud out USDJPY. Holding short still but no confidence to go harder.

gonna watch and journal.
  • #84,670
  • Mar 22, 2022 7:28pm Mar 22, 2022 7:28pm
Quoting RideTheWave
this last move is my guess result of commodity spike (Yen being very sensitive as a net importing country) and more aggressive Fed hiking bets in the market (UST10Y yield up up up).
Your guess is most likely correct. The Japanese economy will end up being hit hard by the surge in raw material prices, but this move really accelerated due to the divergence of the two central banks last week, with the BOJ looking increasingly dovish relative to the Fed.

The ease at which this pair blew past the key psychological level of 120 on higher volume on Tuesday could be a signal of more potential upside if risk sentiment continues to recover. However, USD/JPY does look overextended, and it might also be worth noting DXY was rejected around 99 yet again yesterday, indicating USD strength is possibly topping out, at least in the near-term.

All trading carries risk, but with BOJ minutes and Tokyo CPI data to come this week, it'll be interesting to see if this breakout continues, or if there is some sort of pullback.
  • #84,671
  • Mar 22, 2022 8:58pm Mar 22, 2022 8:58pm
Quoting CityIndex
{quote} Your guess is most likely correct. The Japanese economy will end up being hit hard by the surge in raw material prices, but this move really accelerated due to the divergence of the two central banks last week, with the BOJ looking increasingly dovish relative to the Fed. The ease at which this pair blew past the key psychological level of 120 on higher volume on Tuesday could be a signal of more potential upside if risk sentiment continues to recover. However, USD/JPY does look overextended, and it might also be worth noting DXY was rejected...

On a macro scale I can see where you are coming from, but looking at the Daily and Weekly...
I mean that triple top is calling like crack did to pookie IMO.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,672
  • Mar 24, 2022 6:41am Mar 24, 2022 6:41am
Wave 4 aka short term Bear food....

Is that you???
Always interesting when a level is hit RIGHT before news hits.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,673
  • Mar 24, 2022 6:44am Mar 24, 2022 6:44am
Quoting OnlineAddict
If bears manage to close below 120 today, we might get a good correction finally.
Yeah totally lol
  • #84,674
  • Mar 24, 2022 6:44am Mar 24, 2022 6:44am
Long from 121.41…
  • #84,675
  • Mar 24, 2022 6:45am Mar 24, 2022 6:45am
Quoting pbylina
Long from 121.41…
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  • #84,676
  • Mar 24, 2022 6:54am Mar 24, 2022 6:54am
Quoting pbylina
{quote} Yeah totally lol
Missing the point of this post of yours.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #84,677
  • Mar 24, 2022 7:07am Mar 24, 2022 7:07am
Yen is now a joke even compared to Ruble. Does BoJ even care? Or did they give up on Japan already?

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  • #84,678
  • Mar 24, 2022 7:18am Mar 24, 2022 7:18am
Quoting OnlineAddict
Yen is now a joke even compared to Ruble. Does BoJ even care? Or did they give up on Japan already? {image}{image}
They waiting for my margin call
  • #84,679
  • Mar 24, 2022 7:24am Mar 24, 2022 7:24am
Quoting Whale
{quote} They waiting for my margin call
I hope not.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #84,680
  • Mar 24, 2022 9:44am Mar 24, 2022 9:44am
Im not gonna call when there will be a pullback because there's not alot of resistance between 122 to 125, but when it does roll over I think it'll be very, very crushing.

I'm also not comfortable jumping in head first to go long without a pullback.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
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