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AUD/USD

Quoting JackJones
{quote} getting there by April sometime hopefully {image} if i gets there it will probably range a bit, will have to see if they get short again there -- looks like Assets have closed shorts nearly 40% since 7000 lows, if they close completely it could kick higher to 7600-7700
Assets brought the dip closing out 23k contracts since the start of March

looks like the flip to long might still be on the cards, have to wait until we get to 7500 though, then a push to 7600 maybe and see if they dump it again

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grist for the mill
On the daily chart, AUDUSD looks very bullish. The price may soon find its resistance and consolidate for a while at the last swing high. The buyers may wait for the daily chart to produce a bullish engulfing candle closing above the last swing high to go long in the pair.
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Crikey, they're really dumping this. See what happens after the US opens in two hours or so.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
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POSTMASTER
Bulls are not done yet...patience for sellers.
7510!!

aud puts on 350 pips in a week, and they say aud is boring

asia session looks like it is selling this week, so will see if they push it down a decent amount and euro /US will come back to push it higher again .. i'm guessing. Or if they both turn into sellers.

7550 still looks like a short term target though to inflict a bit of pain, plus rare air up there needs to see where people stop buying, its getting buyers at 7470ish
grist for the mill
#AUDUSD / Weekly & Daily
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Quoting Ayax.TSS
#AUDUSD / Weekly & Daily{image}{image}

I don't understand. On daily chart, are you assuming it is going to 0.7550 for then drop to one of below level?
Guys. please dont sell it....

The more you sell the more it go up....
Now more than 70% of the retails are selling AU...
Quoting FX5Star
Guys. please dont sell it.... The more you sell the more it go up.... Now more than 70% of the retails are selling AU...
Right..sellers must wait for shift of structure. Don't get trapped...Patience.
Quoting JackJones
7550 still looks like a short term target though to inflict a bit of pain, plus rare air up there needs to see where people stop buying, its getting buyers at 7470ish
big money has been selling since mid 2021 , by pure guess I figured they must be averaged in 'short' at 7500 . Here we now are..

So will they sell or buy?

my bias is on they might be flipping to long given the commodity price crisis , to do this at this level they will will need to CHOP price up at 7600-7400 , ie, push it long sell if off and buy back at 7400

of course any news might change this but given nothing unexpected then we will see..
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grist for the mill
It won't be surprising to see some profit-taking after the recent rally and a few failed attempts to re-test the October 2021 highs at 0.7555. But if this pair can hold support around 0.7400 it should be able to sustain a new leg higher as commodity prices remain elevated, and a potential hawkish RBA pivot on strong economic data.

However, all trading carries risk, especially in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical climate. Disappointing economic data out of Australia, falling commodity prices on tensions in Ukraine easing, or additional lockdowns in China all have the potential to drag AUD lower.

Either way, it should be interesting to see how AUD/USD trades over the coming days, especially with following Australian Federal Budget on Tuesday evening.
Interesting Live stats:


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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
Untouched daily 20 ema for this month, let's see!
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moves nice today, will see how H4 close..
ma ma make me happy
It'll be interesting to see the outcome of today's RBA meeting and how this pair reacts.

Markets having already priced-in a June rate hike and 170bps worth of hikes for 2022, so a hawkish tone at today's meeting that potentially signals a more aggressive tightening plan could help AUD/USD hold a breakout above 0.7550, around its highs from October 2021.

However, with the Australian election soon, the central bank is unlikely to raise the cash rate just yet, and any indication that they might further delay a rate hike beyond current market expectations could cause a pullback on profit-taking, as well as potentially heavier selling if bears see this key level as a good entry point.

All trading carries risk, but with the RBA decision in just a few hours, this pair definitely looks like one for the watchlist.
Quoting CityIndex
It'll be interesting to see the outcome of today's RBA meeting and how this pair reacts. Markets having already priced-in a June rate hike and 170bps worth of hikes for 2022, so a hawkish tone at today's meeting that potentially signals a more aggressive tightening plan could help AUD/USD hold a breakout above 0.7550, around its highs from October 2021. However, with the Australian election soon, the central bank is unlikely to raise the cash rate just yet, and any indication that they might further delay a rate hike beyond current market...

A good post, yet remembering the Central Bank is designed to make decisions re potential rate rises or otherwise irrespective of pending elections or Govt Debt. (In theory).
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
Quoting yani38
{quote} A good post, yet remembering the Central Bank is designed to make decisions re potential rate rises or otherwise irrespective of pending elections or Govt Debt. (In theory).
You are correct, but the RBA essentially confirmed this would be the case during the previous meeting after reiterating their willingness to be patient until inflation is within its target band.

As expected, they've decided to maintain the current cash rate for the time being, but the statement following the meeting did show a somewhat hawkish pivot from the RBA.

AUD/USD surged on the news and is over 0.8% higher on the day at the time of writing. The FOMC Minutes are due Wednesday on could highlight the hawkishness being seen among Fed members recently, so it should be really interesting to see this pair holds above 0.7600 or pulls back in the coming days.
move as expected
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Quoting PatienceFx
move as expected {image} {image}
Why as expected? I expected an opposite move due to not raising interest rate and the caution used by the rba about the future.

What to expect now?
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