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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #8,081
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:04am Mar 16, 2022 10:04am
pour Mobydick

le génial créateur des courbes curvilinéaires écrit en même temps que je suis un vieux con de 75 ans (il me vieillit) nul en programmation (ce qui est vrai) appliquant de vieux bouquins poussièreux qui datent du siècle dernier (ce qui aussi est vrai).

Mais il aurait voulu me montrer ses softs privés géniaux sur FF. J'y vois une contradiction
  • #8,082
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:06am Mar 16, 2022 10:06am
Quoting helioss
{quote} I will MASTER
helioss do not excite too much my native megalomania !
  • #8,083
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:07am Mar 16, 2022 10:07am
Quoting helioss
Also on FOREX.... {image}
Hey, Helioss! Would you ever consider sharing your custom indicators? thanks
  • #8,084
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:08am Mar 16, 2022 10:08am
Quoting helioss
DE40...4H green pips to all!!! {image}
Back on Hurst MA.... 14532 DONE
  • #8,085
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:11am Mar 16, 2022 10:11am
Quoting helioss
BTCUSD 5 min.... {image}
...also BITCOIN 40938 DONE .....super
  • #8,086
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:42am Mar 16, 2022 10:42am
Hello Parisboy

Laisse le pisser ... on a suffisemment à faire avec la vol induite par les menus évènements du moment et leurs impacts difficilement prévisibles !

Je pratique de plus en plus les MMC et les FOP de dégré différents mais sur des UT plus longues ( UT5 et 1H ) car en 1mn les MMC me donnent déjà pas mal de données pour comprendre ( enfin comprendre ... plutôt jouer ) des set ups en combinant les infos données par ton système et mes marottes ( les BRN sur x00 et x50 + les Points Pivots standard )

Bref, je suis en mode padawan et je progresse.

Je reste pour le moment extrêmement surpris sur YM par la pertinence des BRN sur ce sous jacent pour des trades courts.

Je suppose que tu dois avoir des infos en live de la région au centre des news en ce moment ...

a +
  • #8,087
  • Mar 16, 2022 11:02am Mar 16, 2022 11:02am
GBPCAD...follow up
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  • #8,088
  • Edited 2:05pm Mar 16, 2022 12:45pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting helioss
{quote} Yeah exactly!!! This is key. For my mind it's difficult this approach...i work better on clear rules. Of course your Hurst approach is more correct but you are a MASTER on it so you can manage it very well. I'd like to analyze if this easier approach on FLD can be good & useful at the same time Tnx for your detailed explanations, you are a great MASTER
problem is that the Hurst Concepts / Principles are simple but not "clear". You can decide that setting X is "clear" but it is not.

Eliades table is based on the so called Hurst Nominal Model declined in DAYS.

Hence this opens a very classical controversy in Cyclic Analysis about Trading : Do we use Calendar Days or Trading Days ?

You will hear things like " Cycles are active at night, during week end, etc., work at night . "

This looks common sense but in real trading life is IMHO totally stupid.

Why ? because it concerns only days and not weekly and monthly charts, which means you have 1 Bar = 1 Week or 1 Month

The key is the word BAR (Candle etc)

But the question is : does a Hurst Cyclical Model expressed in Days applied also on lower Time Units ?

It is possible but has to be demonstrated. IMHO there is a flaw in such reasonings. T

The Flaw is that some Cycle Analists assimilate Cycle in the real Life with Cycle in the Market(s). IMHO it is not the same thing even when using the same word.

Earth has a cyclic life (seasons) and these "cycles" do not stop at night and during week end. Biological cycles too.

Market Cycles are just points, bars, candles, on a screen or a chart using artificial Time Units.

There is no such thing as a 5 minutes bar chart or a 2 Hours Heikin Ashi chart. It is purely conventional, artificial. It just a graphical representation of Price Action
  • #8,089
  • Edited 2:00pm Mar 16, 2022 1:44pm | Edited 2:00pm
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These guys are just fraud. Why lying ? It is not a major lie. But is a lie. And even an unnecessary lie.

You could write ' My Ehlers Cyclic Model is largely inspired by the Nominal Model of the great Jim Hurst , the Father of Cyclical Analysis (which he is not)

You could also write following the Principle of Variation quoted in Profit Magic, the first book of the Great Jim Hurst, the father of Cycle Analysis etc this is the present values of the Cycles at work in the market. Note that these values are very close of those listed by the great Jim Hurst in his Nominal Model.page 33 of Profit Magic.

Anybody have the right to develop his own Cyclic Model - I have mine largely inspired by the great Jim Hurst , the father of Cyclic Analysis.

But when you quote quote right.
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  • #8,090
  • Mar 16, 2022 1:55pm Mar 16, 2022 1:55pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} problem is that the Hurst Concepts / Principles are simple but not "clear". You can decide that setting X is "clear" but it is not. Eliades table is based on the so called Hurst Nominal Model declined in DAYS. Hence this opens a very classical controversy in Cyclic Analysis about Tradin : Do we use Calendar Days or Trading Days ? You will hear things like " Cycles are active at night, during week end, etc., work at night . " This looks common sense but in real trading life is IMHO totally stupid. Why ? because it concerns only days and not...
I'm just reading this
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  • #8,091
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:09pm Mar 16, 2022 2:09pm
Quoting helioss
{quote} I'm just reading this {image}

What is the source ? Charles D. Kirkpatrick ?
  • #8,092
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:19pm Mar 16, 2022 2:19pm
Quoting parisboy
{image} These guys are just fraud. Why lying ? It is not a major lie. But is a lie. And even an unnecessary lie. You could write ' My Ehlers Cyclic Model is largely inspired by the Nominal Model of the great Jim Hurst , the Father of Cyclical Analysis (which he is not) You could also write following the Principle of Variation quoted in Profit Magic, the first book of the Great Jim Hurst, the father of Cycle Analysis etc this is the present values of the Cycles at work in the market. Note that these values are very close of those listed by the great...
After reading pages & pages i have this idea: Hurst & all cycle traders try to find a solution of big problem between "TRUE CYCLE" & "TRADE CYCLE". Last one is different if you trade STOCKS, FOREX, FUTURES, COMMODITIES (trade hours are different so i suppose that also "trade cycles" should have different correction coefficient).

Hurst is the GREAT MASTER and showed the right way...but i think markets today are quite different than Hurst ones, so probably, IMHO, some traders try to "adapt" his great model to current markets. MASTER, What do you think about this?

More i'm reading and more windows in my brain are opening......
  • #8,093
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:23pm Mar 16, 2022 2:23pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} What is the source ? Charles D. Kirkpatrick ?
Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis Christopher Grafton CMT
  • #8,094
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:25pm Mar 16, 2022 2:25pm
Quoting helioss
GBPCAD...follow up {image}
Update
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  • #8,095
  • Mar 16, 2022 3:00pm Mar 16, 2022 3:00pm
Quoting helioss
{quote} After reading pages & pages i have this idea: Hurst & all cycle traders try to find a solution of big problem between "TRUE CYCLE" & "TRADE CYCLE". Last one is different if you trade STOCKS, FOREX, FUTURES, COMMODITIES (trade hours are different so i suppose that also "trade cycles" should have different correction coefficient). Hurst is the GREAT MASTER and showed the right way...but i think markets today are quite different than Hurst ones, so probably, IMHO, some traders try to "adapt" his great model to current markets. MASTER, What...
The main interest of Hurst is that Hurst brought at the time (1970 - 1975) various "cyclic tools) Envelopes, Valid Trend Lines, Centered Moving Averages Crossings, Future Line of Demarcation to the Average Trader ( Investor at this Time)

But Hurst never paid his dues to the guys who were his predecessors at the Foundationfor the Study of Cycles and developed all the mehodologies used in Cyclic Analysis.

If you do a content analysis of his first book Profit Magic, I am not even sure that he wrote it fully because you have different words used to define the same thing : cycle, wave, component. it smells that it is a synthesis of several studies written by different people.

Moreover the origin of Profit Magic is strange. Hurst is reputed having worked for a group of private investorrs having put money on the table for financing his research.
He is reputed having used 20.000 hours of CPU for these researcH.

And "Hurst" publishes the results or part of it for the general public; Why ? Strange

Moreover he publishes in the Annexes some studies on Fourier Analysis to "find" mathematically or confirm the existence of the Cycles he used in his "model"

Why ? in 1970 no common investor as you and me knew something about Fourier Transformation, Periodogram etc. Anyway working with pencil, ruler, rubber and graphic paper nobody could replicate it.

Strange
  • #8,096
  • Mar 16, 2022 4:44pm Mar 16, 2022 4:44pm
Back to business

BTCUSD 5 mn

opened Short position
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  • #8,097
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:54am Mar 17, 2022 4:54am
US30 5min
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  • #8,098
  • Mar 17, 2022 5:04am Mar 17, 2022 5:04am
Quoting helioss
US30 5min {image}
TP ZONE DONE
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  • #8,099
  • Mar 17, 2022 5:09am Mar 17, 2022 5:09am
BTCUSD 5 mn

Short Follow Up

Tillman Focal Points never sleep too !
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  • #8,100
  • Mar 17, 2022 5:41am Mar 17, 2022 5:41am
BTCUSD 5 mn

Closed Short position + 414
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