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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #84,621
  • Mar 16, 2022 3:04am Mar 16, 2022 3:04am
Short at 118.2x tp open : Tp1 117.85/ tp2: 116.68 tp 3 115.80
  • #84,622
  • Mar 16, 2022 8:36am Mar 16, 2022 8:36am
Quoting Blckcptl
{quote} Let's see if UJ can take out the 2017 high of ~118.680. If it does 120 could come quick and onto 2014 highs of 124.xxx I'm currently long from 117.364. Rate hike tomorrow.
I feel 120 is a definite. Possibly even 121.8 to take out the previous push for those highs, but if history repeats it will come up just short of ATH. I see us bullish into the weekend before we see a nice correction to make us forget about clearing 120, before we then turn and do. The rate decisions I have seen all initiated moves within UJ that began a week prior to the decision and continued through to the Friday after FOMC. Last Thursday as anticipated this move began during the Asian session. I was really looking forward to those 50 points though..
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,623
  • Mar 16, 2022 8:44am Mar 16, 2022 8:44am
Quoting HTG
{quote} This pair is so relentless. Took awhile but here we are arriving at the 118 area.

yep! UJ is a honey badger. gives 0 fucks lol. The most manipulated of pairs IMO. The turn will be a hard one.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,624
  • Mar 16, 2022 8:48am Mar 16, 2022 8:48am
Quoting CityIndex
With interest rate decisions from the Fed and BOJ due this week, it'll be interesting to see whether this pair can hold/extend its breakout over the coming days, or if it pulls back towards the resistance around 116.35. Expectations are for the Fed to hike by 25bps compared to the more aggressive 50bps that was being priced just a few weeks ago, so any sort of hawkish surprise coming out of the FOMC Meeting could boost USD further. However, with Japanese consumer expectations of inflation reaching the highest on record, there is scope for JPY to...

I thought a hawkish FED boosted the Yen not the the other way around.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,625
  • Edited 2:19pm Mar 16, 2022 9:57am | Edited 2:19pm
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this pair take a quick run at that 2017 high of 118.66, break it, take out a bunch of stops, then immediately crash afterwards. Of course it could keep on going north as well. Just something to look out for. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
  • #84,626
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:11am Mar 16, 2022 10:11am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I thought a hawkish FED boosted the Yen not the the other way around.
Hawkish Fed is good for the dollar bad for Yen.

Hawkish Fed is bad for the US equities market which would usually be good for the Yen because its considered a safe haven and traders typically rotate into it on down days, but the dollar and UJ have diverged from the equities market and the correlation isn't there anymore.

I said in November that I thought the dollar and UJ would diverge from the us equities market this year with rates rising.

If you watch the futures or bond market at all you would see that most traders aren't rotating into Yen or Bonds right now when the market tanks. Looks like they are just sitting on the sidelines in cash for the most part.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,627
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:45pm Mar 16, 2022 2:45pm
Interesting lack of follow through after a fairly aggressive move up following the Fed announcement. If I was a long, I might be beginning to worry that I didn't get caught in some little game of 'who's left holding the bag' that they love to play.
  • #84,628
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:56pm Mar 16, 2022 2:56pm
Doesn't matter what tf you use there's divergence in rsi and price.

Minute, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly. Doesn't matter.

I won't touch UJ without a respectable pullback. Too much risk.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,629
  • Mar 16, 2022 3:44pm Mar 16, 2022 3:44pm
Looks like it's attempting to close the day strong. If it does, and especially if it can stay above 118.66, then it might have some more follow through. Usd/Chf on the other hand is looking decidedly more sluggish atm.
  • #84,630
  • Mar 16, 2022 4:09pm Mar 16, 2022 4:09pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} Hawkish Fed is good for the dollar bad for Yen. Hawkish Fed is bad for the US equities market which would usually be good for the Yen because its considered a safe haven and traders typically rotate into it on down days, but the dollar and UJ have diverged from the equities market and the correlation isn't there anymore. I said in November that I thought the dollar and UJ would diverge from the us equities market this year with rates rising. If you watch the futures or bond market at all you would see that most traders aren't rotating into...
yes. Normally sp500 and USDJPY are decently correlated.

what is interesting with the Russian invasion. 10yr UST yield stayed high. A dip but mostly held up. Market is trading inflation/Fed tightening more than fear.

Selling USDJPY while usually a safe haven play, wasn’t going to work (lost some pips) with the point about the UST10. ALSO Japan being hugely reliant on Oil and many commodities, during those spikes upwards, did put pressure on Yen as we saw the USDJPY take off a stunning move. Man, it looked like banks were using the added selling pressure to buy as much as they could for anyone like me selling USDJPY the whole time.

I got more short after 119 after the rate hike. Holding still.
  • #84,631
  • Mar 17, 2022 2:48am Mar 17, 2022 2:48am
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  • #84,632
  • Edited 1:14pm Mar 17, 2022 4:18am | Edited 1:14pm
Been pretty sluggish ever since spike up following the Fed rate hike. If there is a break of intermediate trendline (which also coincides with most recent 8 hr candle), could see some more bears begin come in. Might start looking for shorts. It's had a huge run up. Some degree of correction is becoming more likely at this point.

Edit: Shorted @118.81.
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  • #84,633
  • Edited 1:14pm Mar 17, 2022 10:59am | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting ICouldBWrong
Been pretty sluggish ever since spike up following the Fed rate hike. If there is a break of intermediate trendline (which also coincides with most recent 8 hr candle), could see some more bears begin come in. Might start looking for shorts. It's had a huge run up. Some degree of correction is becoming more likely at this point. Edit: Shorted @118.81. {image}
Closed half order @118.42 for 39 pips profit. Trailing stop for the rest.
  • #84,634
  • Mar 17, 2022 1:09pm Mar 17, 2022 1:09pm
Anytime there's a 20 - 25 pip reversal and no immediate bounce I always watch closely for a correction.

Looking at the last leg up 50% retracement would bring us to 117 -116.90 area.

If that doesn't hold I'm looking at the previous breakout at 116.35 to act as support.

4hr chart looks like it's rolling over.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,635
  • Mar 17, 2022 1:28pm Mar 17, 2022 1:28pm
It's flagging on the hourly charts btw.

Bear flags.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,636
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:32pm Mar 17, 2022 4:32pm
Quoting Jgcole83
It's flagging on the hourly charts btw. Bear flags. {image}

Yep. Had some sell orders set up in the 118.71-74 area. Not quite sure if it's going to make it back up there.
  • #84,637
  • Mar 17, 2022 7:36pm Mar 17, 2022 7:36pm
Short when it touches. 114.9 first target. More room above, but break time aka wave 4 daily. IMO. We started the thur b4 and kept going through FOMC as usual.

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Careful. could revisit the high before US open.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,638
  • Mar 18, 2022 4:46am Mar 18, 2022 4:46am
#USDJPY / Weekly & Daily
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  • #84,639
  • Mar 18, 2022 6:10am Mar 18, 2022 6:10am
U/J longs have certainly been persistent. However, it just got a nice reject right near this weeks high where I took some shorts. Lets see how this goes. Short @119.10.
  • #84,640
  • Mar 18, 2022 9:41am Mar 18, 2022 9:41am
Quoting Jgcole83
It's flagging on the hourly charts btw. Bear flags. {image}
What made you think this tiny little accumulation of candles was a bearish flag?
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