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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #84,601
  • Mar 10, 2022 2:25am Mar 10, 2022 2:25am
Work out a double bottom to 116.80
  • #84,602
  • Mar 10, 2022 3:10am Mar 10, 2022 3:10am
waiting for support, what will be....
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #84,603
  • Mar 10, 2022 8:02am Mar 10, 2022 8:02am
Hedged my shorts +1 and gave them a 116.9 sl.
Bulls are looking for that 120 again. I think the rug will get pulled out from under them, but let's see.
Price appears to be in a triple top on the Daily.
Tonight (In NY) will be the Thursday before FMOC rate decision. If history repeats we should start our move in the direction of the decision tonight. If today we don't clear Jan 4th and Feb 2nd Highs I will look to sell them tonight, or in my case drop my hedges and add a short.
Good luck
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,604
  • Mar 10, 2022 9:44am Mar 10, 2022 9:44am
Bearish wedge lines up perfectly with 116.34.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,605
  • Mar 10, 2022 9:56am Mar 10, 2022 9:56am
Also had divergence in price and rsi this morning.

Just missed that one.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,606
  • Mar 10, 2022 9:54pm Mar 10, 2022 9:54pm
Ladies and gentlemen.. We could go all the way!!!
If there is no turn around tonight that is. US consumer sentiment in the morning, but unless they overreact to bad news looks like 120 may come in before the lows. Scary times.

Queue my parrot
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,607
  • Mar 11, 2022 7:22am Mar 11, 2022 7:22am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} both are bullish {image} {image}
bullish, next target is 118.3
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #84,608
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:58pm Mar 11, 2022 12:58pm
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #84,609
  • Mar 13, 2022 11:08am Mar 13, 2022 11:08am
I'll be looking for a buy after UJ pulls back from the top of the channel.

Looks pretty over bought at this point.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,610
  • Mar 13, 2022 11:21am Mar 13, 2022 11:21am
Quoting Jgcole83
I'll be looking for a buy after UJ pulls back from the top of the channel. Looks pretty over bought at this point. {image}
I'm inclined to agree. This is the 3rd breakout since November, the last two failed under 2 weeks (Daily Chart). If UJ can hold 116.2xx, there may be more upside to 2015 highs.
Volatility does not equal risk.
  • #84,611
  • Mar 13, 2022 11:29am Mar 13, 2022 11:29am
As expected, the pair made a bullish breakout at 116.335. The level is very significant since the price had a rejection at this level twice. Thus, the price may make a bearish correction to justify the breakout. The buyers may wait for the price to produce a bullish reversal candle at the breakout level to go long in the pair again. The price may head towards the level of 119.000 if the level of 116.335 holds and produces a bullish reversal.
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  • #84,612
  • Mar 13, 2022 11:49am Mar 13, 2022 11:49am
Quoting Fibonacci.bd
As expected, the pair made a bullish breakout at 116.335. The level is very significant since the price had a rejection at this level twice. Thus, the price may make a bearish correction to justify the breakout. The buyers may wait for the price to produce a bullish reversal candle at the breakout level to go long in the pair again. The price may head towards the level of 119.000 if the level of 116.335 holds and produces a bullish reversal. {image}
116.35 is exactly where I'm looking for a buy.

Want to see prior resistance act as support.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,613
  • Mar 13, 2022 9:15pm Mar 13, 2022 9:15pm
So, everyone is bullish? Perfect time for wave 4 to appear.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,614
  • Mar 13, 2022 9:30pm Mar 13, 2022 9:30pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
So, everyone is bullish? Perfect time for wave 4 to appear.
This pair is so relentless. Took awhile but here we are arriving at the 118 area.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #84,615
  • Mar 14, 2022 1:48pm Mar 14, 2022 1:48pm
With interest rate decisions from the Fed and BOJ due this week, it'll be interesting to see whether this pair can hold/extend its breakout over the coming days, or if it pulls back towards the resistance around 116.35.

Expectations are for the Fed to hike by 25bps compared to the more aggressive 50bps that was being priced just a few weeks ago, so any sort of hawkish surprise coming out of the FOMC Meeting could boost USD further. However, with Japanese consumer expectations of inflation reaching the highest on record, there is scope for JPY to rally if the BOJ surprises markets by raising interest rates.

It's also important to keep in mind the impact the Ukraine-Russia war and the new spike in Chinese Covid cases may have on this pair given both currencies reputations' as safe-havens. All trading carries risk, so all of these factors need to be carefully monitored.
  • #84,616
  • Mar 15, 2022 1:41am Mar 15, 2022 1:41am
The pair has been extremely bullish in the H4 chart. We can draw an up trending trend line as well. I am waiting for the price to make some bearish correction followed by a bullish reversal to go long in the pair. The level of 117.910 may work as a level of support. Let us wait and watch whether the level holds the price and pushes the price towards the North.
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  • #84,617
  • Edited 2:32pm Mar 15, 2022 2:08pm | Edited 2:32pm
Might get a double top and a pull back here finally if price cant break above and hold 118.37.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,618
  • Mar 15, 2022 5:57pm Mar 15, 2022 5:57pm
Quoting Jgcole83
Might get a double top and a pull back here finally if price cant break above and hold 118.37. {image}
You could be the right, the fall in oil prices seems to have solidified market expectations of a tamer FOMC Meeting, and it seems like traders are now waiting for the interest rate decision tomorrow with USD gains stalling relative to multiple currencies.

All trading carries risk, the level of hawkishness from the Fed will likely determine whether this pairs breaks resistance, or pulls back towards the previous resistance around 116.35.
  • #84,619
  • Mar 15, 2022 6:01pm Mar 15, 2022 6:01pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} bullish, next target is 118.3 {image}
target at 118.3 reached

Next target is 120

i think that the 116 level will hold on a pullback, if any this week
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #84,620
  • Mar 15, 2022 6:34pm Mar 15, 2022 6:34pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} target at 118.3 reached Next target is 120 i think that the 116 level will hold on a pullback, if any this week
Let's see if UJ can take out the 2017 high of ~118.680. If it does 120 could come quick and onto 2014 highs of 124.xxx
I'm currently long from 117.364.

Rate hike tomorrow.
Volatility does not equal risk.
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