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EURUSD

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 27, 2004 2:49am Mar 27, 2004 2:49am
I'm short from 1.2176 sl: 1.2265. I took the position Friday
morning around 8AM EST. I wanted to trail the stop, but
fell asleep because of whacky sleeping patterns last week.
Luckily price didnt suddenly reverse on me through my stop
again. I'm thinking about moving the s/l asap to 1.2170, about
breakeven. I'll cover on another bounce around 1.1205 area,
but I'd like to leave the trade open and hopefully make some
decent gains on a break below 1.2060 area. I wish I wouldve
gotten in earlier, but have been focusing on the GBPUSD and
USDCHF lately.

Is anybody in this trade?

What do you think about moving my stop to 1.2170? Too tight?
I placed it here because I'm thinking there is at least two levels
of resistance from where we are now on Fri close @ 1.2124:
1)1.2140 Fri high after bounce from 1.1203 (near Fri low) and ~50%
fibo from Friday high to 1.1203
2)just above 61.8% fibo (1.2159)of 1.2213->1.2077) and a prior intraday
support for Friday

If it breaks these, then I will wait until a break of 1.2213 to glong
or play smaller fibos to look for small pip gains until there is a clear
direction??

I want to be in a somewhat of a decent position just in case if it
breaks out of this daily consolidation. I might be able to re-enter
on a bounce of 1.1205 area and back down off of 1.2200 area. What do you
think of my reasoning?

How can I improve this type of fibo support/resistance analysis ... maybe with some indicators? I noticed the intraday and daily double tops and headandshoulders, btw, but didnt mention them. Both are trend reversal signals, so it is a high probality we will see more downside, but it's still kind of iffy as to when for me.

Thanks
snprr
  • #2
  • Apr 6, 2004 12:12pm Apr 6, 2004 12:12pm
I had a great return...I sold off half for a 150pip profit....then I unfortunately ...
didnt adjust my limit order.......and my remaining lot brought in around 125...

I did nt jump back in Overall I was happy with the results

L
  • #3
  • Apr 6, 2004 7:57pm Apr 6, 2004 7:57pm
Doclouis

What trade did you do this on? What day? Im trying to follow the euro and I must have missed it !

Lou
  • #4
  • May 20, 2004 9:55am May 20, 2004 9:55am
Stopped out today.
Long did nt recently go well.

L
  • #5
  • May 20, 2004 10:07am May 20, 2004 10:07am
Pretty shitty 100 pip profit vanished on Tuesday. Re-entered long; up 75 pips -- that vanished as well. Then entered short @ 1914. Stopped out @1944 for another 30 pip hit. I cannot afford to keep allowing profitable trades turn into losses, waiting for the 150 pip target according to the 5MFX system. From now on I am going to have to start taking profits whenever I have them.
  • #6
  • May 20, 2004 10:42am May 20, 2004 10:42am
Quoting vdeluca
Pretty shitty 100 pip profit vanished on Tuesday. Re-entered long; up 75 pips -- that vanished as well. Then entered short @ 1914. Stopped out @1944 for another 30 pip hit. I cannot afford to keep allowing profitable trades turn into losses, waiting for the 150 pip target according to the 5MFX system. From now on I am going to have to start taking profits whenever I have them.
have you seen my performance report on the other thread -- managing the trades a bit differently makes sense to me -- at least in the short term

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...5&page=2&pp=25
  • #7
  • Edited 11:13am May 20, 2004 11:10am | Edited 11:13am
I though I was doing well too...then it dried up. I had a little voice on my shoulder telling me.."you re ahead...why not take the gain and run"...but I did tn listen and the rest is history
  • #8
  • May 20, 2004 11:29am May 20, 2004 11:29am
Quote
have you seen my performance report on the other thread -- managing the trades a bit differently makes sense to me -- at least in the short term

Tearlach, if you're exiting before 150 pips, how much of a profit do you target with each trade?

Regards,
Correy
  • #9
  • May 20, 2004 12:19pm May 20, 2004 12:19pm
Quoting Correy
Tearlach, if you're exiting before 150 pips, how much of a profit do you target with each trade?

Regards,
Correy
his rules spook me a bit -- but that's my style -- I like banging out the singles/doubles and not looking for the home runs

I'd rather miss a big move than see a nice profit evaporate

the 150 pip strategy may work at times, but this month has been tricky

out of the 12 successful trades, only 3 cracked 150 pips

Beau recommends moving your stop to breakeven "once you are ahead 75 to 100 pips"

I'm thinking of taking one lot off at +50 or 60 pips -- or at least moving the stop to +25

but, with time (i.e., experience), maybe I'll get more comfortable with Beau's trade mgmt -- I'm sure he's got the history to back up his strategies

But look at those entries! clearly there's value in those TRLs -- wouldn't you agree? and based on recent performance, I'm just going to focus on the euro and cable


disclaimer: I'm just an advanced beginner at this -- keep that in mind
  • #10
  • May 20, 2004 12:32pm May 20, 2004 12:32pm
Quoting vdeluca
Pretty shitty 100 pip profit vanished on Tuesday. Re-entered long; up 75 pips -- that vanished as well. Then entered short @ 1914. Stopped out @1944 for another 30 pip hit. I cannot afford to keep allowing profitable trades turn into losses, waiting for the 150 pip target according to the 5MFX system. From now on I am going to have to start taking profits whenever I have them.
V
I know exactly how you feel. Trying to learn this forex business and the old standard of cut your losses short and let your profits run just did not work for me. Running 3 demo accounts doing this all started sucking big time (2 that is). I treated that funny money like my own. If anyone other than my wife had seen how guarded I was with this virtual money they would of had me committed. I used not nice language in loud tones and, and , and...... MY WIFE said "Why not take the profits when you are up?" I spend my life right now in front of the computers watching the blue and red bars girate all day and all night. Soooo - in my $10,000 demo I started to take the money when I was up. Named the account after her "Macro-Mai". In about 2 weeks got that sucker up to $12,900.plus by taking whatever when the market started to turn back on me. Prevented losses as best as I could with 2 -10 pip gains and even some even-stevens. I am a bottom and top picker and that creates a lot of emotional turmoil. I find that I am greedy and do not wish to give away that top or bottom 40 - 150 pips. Step in Elliott Wave. Because of bottom and topping I am entering into a lot of 1st waves. They are generally corrected a great deal and I see in this marketplace a terrific amount. This is where stops can get hit trying to let it run. If you traded 3rd waves and "C" corrective waves it would be no sweat. (Just reading this makes me want to change my bad trading habits). Personally it may be chickens...t but the money is in the bank by taking profits. When you do wake up late and by chance get yourself into that 3rd or C wave chase price up with stops and protect. I guess this is where limits will work. Just can't take 50 and see 200 past that point. Feel I have missed something.
Hope this helps and good trading.

slick 60
P.S. Any consolation I am batting 1,000 this week. Everything is wrong and gone!
  • #11
  • May 20, 2004 12:55pm May 20, 2004 12:55pm
Quoting Correy
Tearlach, if you're exiting before 150 pips, how much of a profit do you target with each trade?

Regards,
Correy
if you're not as big a coward as me, +100 pip take profit might be smarter -- the average of the nine winning trades (with <150 pip gains) is just over 99 pips, and five out of the nine were for 99 pips or greater

I should probably set a +50 stop when the price reaches +100
  • #12
  • May 20, 2004 1:03pm May 20, 2004 1:03pm
Have you gotten Beau's opinion on this strategy? Merlin what is your take on adjusting the stops? I am getting desperate I am down $1000!! As sure as I change the strategy though it will go yard. That has been my luck so far. I plan to just stick with the original management rules until further word from Beau.
  • #13
  • May 20, 2004 1:58pm May 20, 2004 1:58pm
I agree the best thing to do is to follow the rules. As we all know from our school days, however, rules exist to be broken . If you are going to break the rules, its preferable to do so to take profit when it is staring you in the face, than doing something stupid like cancelling a stop loss. I repeat though, that the best thing to do is follow the rules.
  • #14
  • Edited 3:06pm May 20, 2004 2:58pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting vdeluca
I agree the best thing to do is to follow the rules. As we all know from our school days, however, rules exist to be broken . If you are going to break the rules, its preferable to do so to take profit when it is staring you in the face, than doing something stupid like cancelling a stop loss. I repeat though, that the best thing to do is follow the rules.
Group I think it is time to go long right here 3:50pm EST. Wait for retrace to 1.1910 - 25 level and ride this baby higher. The downer is dunner!

slick 60
P.S. Watch for the sideways shuffle at this time of day. Correction may take a while for entry.
  • #15
  • May 22, 2004 7:28pm May 22, 2004 7:28pm
A psychological take profit is as non-productive as a a psychological stop loss. IMHO, it is better to learn and understand time/price movements and than to trade those movements rather than deciding it has to go 150 pips.

As far as the euro goes....there were a great deal of pips on the table. Count the pips on the swings of the hourly chart. If your system or strategy did not produce positive pips with such swings, you may want to consider alternative strategies or systems.
  • #16
  • May 22, 2004 10:04pm May 22, 2004 10:04pm
What would you reccommend?

Quoting xtsunami
A psychological take profit is as non-productive as a a psychological stop loss. IMHO, it is better to learn and understand time/price movements and than to trade those movements rather than deciding it has to go 150 pips.

As far as the euro goes....there were a great deal of pips on the table. Count the pips on the swings of the hourly chart. If your system or strategy did not produce positive pips with such swings, you may want to consider alternative strategies or systems.
  • #17
  • Dec 4, 2004 12:44pm Dec 4, 2004 12:44pm
Quoting Lou
My reason for starting this thread was for traders to share their thoughts in terms of taking a position in the market (Something I didnt see happening on the forum.) so that there could be learning and discussion around trading.

Explaining the 'why' of a trade or prediction is the key to learning. Putting it into an order is making a committment to back up one's position.

For example, now would be a perfect time to hear what traders are saying about the EUR/USD. Are they taking a reversal position or going to stick with the trend? What committment are you going to make and why.

LOU
I am sticking to the EZ Trade system. Beacuse, #1. I do not know enough or have enough experience to make acurate predictions. #2 I have cleaned out 2 demo accounts ( working on the third now) using my "emotional" predictions. So I know enough to know that I do not know enough to make my own calls
Forex Trading: The hardest way to make easy money.
  • #18
  • Dec 4, 2004 4:00pm Dec 4, 2004 4:00pm
While I, like most traders here, have been short on the USD for a while, now I am flat.

Reason: When a trend or stock etc becomes front page news, is on the television & radio every day, and everyone you bump into everywhere is talking about it - it is time to take profits and re-evaluate before jumping back in to the market.

It never hurts me to take profits and be flat even if I leave a lot of pips on the table because I can never, ever seem to call the top or bottom and I don't bother to try.

It always hurts me to give back pips to the market because I was too greedy to take profits when I first started becoming uncomfortable with a position.

I will be looking for a strong confirmation of trend continuation or reversal before placing any long or mid time frame trades.
  • #19
  • Dec 4, 2004 4:55pm Dec 4, 2004 4:55pm
Quoting Lou
now would be a perfect time to hear what traders are saying about the EUR/USD.
the only sane person shorting the EURUSD right now is the E-12
Relax and be happy.
  • #20
  • Dec 5, 2004 1:07am Dec 5, 2004 1:07am
Quoting FXFlash52
While I, like most traders here, have been short on the USD for a while, now I am flat.

Reason: When a trend or stock etc becomes front page news, is on the television & radio every day, and everyone you bump into everywhere is talking about it - it is time to take profits and re-evaluate before jumping back in to the market.

It never hurts me to take profits and be flat even if I leave a lot of pips on the table because I can never, ever seem to call the top or bottom and I don't bother to try.

It always hurts me to give back pips to the market because I was too greedy to take profits when I first started becoming uncomfortable with a position.

I will be looking for a strong confirmation of trend continuation or reversal before placing any long or mid time frame trades.
"One common adage on this subject mat is completely wrongheaded is: You can't go broke taking profits.That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate tomaximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance." William Eckhardt
Regards, Ido
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