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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #7,961
  • Mar 10, 2022 5:29pm Mar 10, 2022 5:29pm
AUD training in Tokyo session.

(Position was added after certain breaks)

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,962
  • Mar 10, 2022 5:34pm Mar 10, 2022 5:34pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} Nice to see someone really dig in and do the work....you will reap the rewards of your efforts!!
Thanks Swede ; )
It's proven very effective for me to write down the conclusions after an hour or two when the chart has printed enough information.

I keep these in a word document but thought to share some of them here to both hear you guys' critique and also maybe help somebody else.
Also posting on a live forum makes the experience more serious so better learning is reinforced.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,963
  • Mar 10, 2022 5:37pm Mar 10, 2022 5:37pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} It is why I have always written: a) you have to train using 1 mn chart on a demo account b) you have to trade also some 1 mn charts to get some immediate profits (or losses inevitably) c) you have to train or trade 30 mn , 1 hour Charts to confirm yourself that whatever Time Unit you use you have exactly the same patterns. Then you have to draw the consequences d) as an investor you have to follow also all previous stages to build confidence in your tools and strategy with daily, weekly or monthly charts.
I can completely understand that now.

It's really frustrating for anybody to do these trainings on a live account or even think about results as soon as a pattern emerges.

I'm just here at the beginning, but these demo trades makes you see what happenes after an hour when you enter. But on a live account you're so fearful to exit and take your risk off the table that you miss certain points.

Need to keep training and training.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,964
  • Mar 10, 2022 5:40pm Mar 10, 2022 5:40pm
BTC short TP reached.

Entry was done as our VTL was broken

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,965
  • Edited 7:27pm Mar 10, 2022 6:20pm | Edited 7:27pm
Something to think about..
Time will tell if this is just a good painting or a somewhat good prediction..

AUD

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EDIT: Worked out good. Not exactly to the point which is OK since we need to note that we have channel limits that sinewaves oscillate in and as those channel limits change, sinewaves follow. Could still go more down and actually touch that lower channel but this is good enough to prove that the concept is sound.

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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,966
  • Mar 10, 2022 7:05pm Mar 10, 2022 7:05pm
Quoting MoeinYzz
BTC short TP reached. Entry was done as our VTL was broken {image} {image}
Fate of this trade. VTL is broken, however envelope 128 might be going under the 256. I'd close this trade since the VTL is broken.


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But look here.. interesting, isn't it?

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Compared with different channel lengths.. Which to use!? Fib channel or just normal channel by trendlines from the last top/low? Would love your opinions.
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When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,967
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:22am Mar 11, 2022 12:22am
DAX m1:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #7,968
  • Edited 7:43am Mar 11, 2022 2:29am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting MoeinYzz
{quote} Fate of this trade. VTL is broken, however envelope 128 might be going under the 256. I'd close this trade since the VTL is broken. {image} But look here.. interesting, isn't it? {image}Compared with different channel lengths.. Which to use!? Fib channel or just normal channel by trendlines from the last top/low? Would love your opinions.{image}
It is up to you. Your question means concretely " which level of precision do we need ?

Envelopes and Channels are used :

- to include in their boundaries 'most of' Price Action
- to generate a reasonable and explotable numbers of touchings / crossings
- to show us the trend(s) at short, medium and long term relatively to the Time Unit used

hence with Envelopes we can

- draw Valid Trend Lines which confirm a Directional Change
- determine Action Signals which , when a VTL is broken, inform us that we have a Candidate Short or a Candidate Long

Basically an Envelope or a Channel includes most of Price Action.

Have we better and more precise , more useful Analysis and Tradable informations if our Envelopes, our Channels include 93 %, 94 %, 95 %, 96 % etc of Price Action.

it is up to you to decide and to choose
  • #7,969
  • Mar 11, 2022 2:57am Mar 11, 2022 2:57am
DAX 1 mn

Opened Short position
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  • #7,970
  • Mar 11, 2022 3:07am Mar 11, 2022 3:07am
Closed Short position on Target

Top = 13.663
Estimated Focal Point 13.581

Target = 13.581 - (13.663-13.581)= 82

13.499 +/- 16
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  • #7,971
  • Mar 11, 2022 3:24am Mar 11, 2022 3:24am
Opened a Long position
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  • #7,972
  • Mar 11, 2022 3:29am Mar 11, 2022 3:29am
DAX 1 mn

Closed Long position + 550

Nothing rationally predictable;

I was just in the right position to profit from it;

Had just the time to click on SELL !
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  • #7,973
  • Mar 11, 2022 3:51am Mar 11, 2022 3:51am
Welles Wilder remembrance (Courtesy of Clemmo17)
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  • #7,974
  • Mar 11, 2022 4:43am Mar 11, 2022 4:43am
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  • #7,975
  • Mar 11, 2022 4:53am Mar 11, 2022 4:53am
Quoting parisboy
DAX 1 mn Closed Long position + 550 Nothing rationally predictable; I was just in the right position to profit from it; Had just the time to click on SELL ! {image}
What a rocker! I had taken profit, and a break ahead of the afternoon action...but at least it was a setup in my model, and target reached to the point But I had saved that ride for later today....ah, well, the markets will move on Monday too.
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  • #7,976
  • Edited 8:36am Mar 11, 2022 8:08am | Edited 8:36am
DAX 1 mn

Opened Short position

Potential Target 13.500 +/- 40

Top = 13.900
Estimated Focal Point = 13.700

Target = 13.700 - (13.900-13.700) = 200 = 13.500 +/- 40
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  • #7,977
  • Mar 11, 2022 8:45am Mar 11, 2022 8:45am
Short Follow Up
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  • #7,978
  • Mar 11, 2022 9:50am Mar 11, 2022 9:50am
Target missed

Closed Short position + 95
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  • #7,979
  • Mar 11, 2022 10:10am Mar 11, 2022 10:10am
Closed Long Position on Target

Low 13.570

Estimated Focal Point : 13.610

Target = 13.610 + (13610-13.570) = 40 + 8
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  • #7,980
  • Mar 11, 2022 10:23am Mar 11, 2022 10:23am
Quoting parisboy
Closed Long Position on Target Low 13.570 Estimated Focal Point : 13.610 Target = 13.610 + (13610-13.570) = 40 + 8 {image}
@Alain
You are killing it as usual.
Really like your consistency.
Well done Bro
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