EURUSD

Some demo trader made fun of me for being cautious and not diving in to buy EURUSD. He called me an idiot. Well, look what happened!

Is EURUSD in the process of changing its course? Will it continue to go lower? Time will tell. But just because you see a big green candle, it doesn't mean you should dive in and buy. There are some who trade like this, and that is OK for them. But it's not OK to attack people in here who choose to be cautious and wait for confirmation.

In a strong bearish market, it makes sense to be a seller. A big green candle doesn't mean much in the midst of such a market. More often than not, it's a bull trap. Can you make money off it? Yes! But you can also lose.

It's up to each trader to decide for themselves how they are going to approach the market. It's their money! People in here need to respect this choice.

But some come in here and make fun of other traders who choose to do something different. This needs to stop. We need to be respectful towards one another. Be constructive, not destructive.

https://sharevision.com/video/b8rLoe +1R

I can't believe that I forgot about 2014:

There were several headline events but the three that I believe are applicable today are as follows:

A. Russia annex's Crimea - this hit the apex when an airliner was shot down. Strangely enough the world did nothing then as compared to today...

B. Ebola presented itself to the USA - Personally I believe that Covid was more of a danger due to longer incubation periods and its ability to spread

C. July 2014 Argentina defaults again! That had many reprecussions in the EM

Why is this important - or is it?

Look at the monthly chart of the EU from 2014:


What I find interesting is that the dump on the EU happened 2-3 months AFTER the invasion of Crimea.

Personally with the economic sanctions placed on Russia and with the FED freezing all Russian USD reserves I don't see much difference that what happened to Argentina and how that affected other markets.

So I'm looking at the past to help guide my future decisions

scalping

my new trading strategy revolves around the levels 0 and 1

level 2 gives long term trend

Short from 1.1063 from last night, just added another from 1.1011. Both extremely small positions. The 1H demand zone from 1.0941 to 1.0992 kind of bugs me. If we can clear that then I'll start adjusting my SL down.

I shorted again too. That shooting star at 1.1120 on the H4 time frame was a good indicator for another move south.

Yeah higher timeframe confirmation is always good. The way I see it is, while I'm no expert in macroeconomics, I do recognize that this pair has more reasons to go down than to go up.

Likely range flat till day, range 1026 to 0953 possible , top first likely. Usdx coincide apparently.

Down pressure is continuing

Just thought I'd share something. A correction if you will on my flawed analysis from the other day. I got arrogant in my Wyckoff and instead shared ANALysis. I incorrectly called a UTAD on what I thought was a redistribution setting up, which actually turned out to be an accumulation. I was totally fooled by it and paid the price too. Was shorting heavily from 0952, but didn't take profit until I gave about 50% of it back around midnight Tuesday night. Apologies if anyone followed along and lost money. Hopefully that wasn't the case.

At first I was thinking accumulation, but didn't see an ST-B form. Turns out it was only a regular ST, making this quite an irregular looking accumulation. But whatever...price doesn't have to strictly conform to any schematic. My biggest failing was believing a UTAD was made, but ignoring the fact that it was not validated with a SOW, which would've been done by a break of structure, as shown on the chart below.

Today however I see a valid type 2 distribution, with a UT validated by a break of structure, marked by a SOW. I expect it to fall further down, at least to 0960. It's too soon to call this an overall redistribution (accumulation into distribution) on a higher timeframe, as it would need to break the structure that it should've broken in the first place, at around 0874. Who knows, maybe it'll happen tomorrow.

Whatever the case, I have two shorts running and have to close them tomorrow no matter what. Running a prop firm account, and I can't hold positions over the weekend. May add another one this evening or overnight if we see a bounce up to make an LPSY.

Cheers.

It will be interesting to see what happens here.

Still holding bruh

Watching 0959 for decision. Anyway daily tf reversal early sign present now, so more bounce likely over 0959 or over previous low or even new lows little. So will look for ultimately range up.
Usdx may range too before decision. Tanking fear remain in usdx too!

All these flipping indirectly related to war, as expected for 2 yrs indirectly due pandemic. All most affected countries looked for diversion public attention. Usdx at fear likely war at any corner!! As pandemic still not over, rather spreaded in every house as stimulus test if the new virulent variant may comes up to justify all deaths and war as well. Anyway as of war luckily started by Putin indirectly increased covid 19 death rates usdx surge up, with lengthening war by Putin himself sharp fall fear and if further lengthening fear of tanking to change into fobia for usdx and US may try raising rates and ultimately join the war directly to save skin. Trump might have avert it but Biden likely provoked and engage! And Nato be use as terrorist organization by US, eu and the world as a whole in great trouble. Line of demarcation between 2 power poles be more visible rather one world nasty policy US might have in mind.

Some spots of interest and how I look the chart - it will always be more, but you have to choose the best to trade.

Price bounced from near 100 to and above 50/200 ma's.

Range trading yet, above 1044 we should see a rise to 1080/95 and then maybe 1121 high. Below the low of the day next support is at 0890.

flat today

just join for the day , scalping short for 0958 retest , breaks then continue down targeting 0908/0888

broken limit , so targets at down will follow

Good call.

I added a couple of more shorts overnight, including one here. Woke up abruptly at 6:30 this morning and checked my phone while price was shaking out. Closed all shorts prematurely. Could've scored a lot more. When you wake up suddenly like that it's hard to think clearly. Oh well, profit is profit.

It's interesting that you say that, because I pretty much did the same. We all make mistakes. This is why mastering psychology must play an important role in trading.

What I should have done was placed a sell limit order at supply. It would have made sense to do so since EURUSD is in a strong bearish trend. And as you can see, it would have paid off.

By the way, I opened a new sell position at 1.09598.