Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

same for Books

no book since 2000

Helioss I think you have made an excellent description : it is Eliades Hurst Cycle view

it is not the Hurst Cycles Nominal model ......because there is none. Hurst published publicly at least 3 different models.

There is NO HURST CYCLES MODEL

It exists only a (Hurst) Cycles Status at the time where (Hurst) you generate it.

It exists a Cyclic Methodology which allows you to generate a Discovery Model if you want to build a Cyclic.

This way you will get a very good starting point. Some use the expression of Initial Cyclic Model

Hurst First Cyclic " Nominal Model"

Look at the FIRST "Nominal Model" of HURST in book Profit Magic (1970)

Expressed in Weeks

1,625 X 5 = 8,125 - 8
3,25 X 5 = 16,25 - 16
6,5 X 5 = 32,5 - 32
13 X 5 = 65 - 64
26 X 5 = 130 - 128

Expressed in Months

9 = 192
12 = 256
18 = 384

Expressed in Years

3 = 768
4,5 =1152
9 = 2304
18 = 4608

Jim Hurst did not come from nowhere. His book (1970) and later his course (1975) is based on the work and researches of the Foundation of the Study of Cycles (FSC).

For example Hurst rename Synchronicity what Edward Dewey named "Synchrony" - for the newbie Synchronicity is the fact that short periods Cycles end to make a low at the Low of a Longer period Cycle.

In his book Profit Magic (1970) Jim Hurst made a synthesis of Cyclical Principles discovered by the FSC guys.

Moreover and more important for us Hurst translated these principles into a practical, workable system for the Dummies, a methodology that traders could use to trade the market and cash some dollars.

Notice that at the Time, (1970-1975) no common people had an access to computers which at the time were less powerful and versatile than your mobile phone
The guys of the FSC were not really interested by such trivial things as making some dollars. They were happy having demonstrated "there is a 6 years Cycle within the Stock Market" and other animal and human behaviour.

You can classify Hurst's work in his book Profit Magic this way :

a) Definition of 8 Cyclic Principles
b) Definition of a Cyclic " Model" to analyze the market - based on the 8 principles quoted above
c) Demonstration that ALL Technical Analysis patterns (Triangles, Heads & Shoulder , Wedges, Pennants, Double and Triple Botoms or Tops etc are the by-product of Cycles
d) Demonstration of the use of Envelopes to increase the visibility of Price Action and to determine visually the Dominant Cycles operating within Price Action
e) Understanding of the use of Centered Moving Averages as a proxy for Trend(s) and as a "filter" of Price Action
f) use of cyclical based tools - Centered Moving Averages crossings, Valid Trend Lines , Curvilinear Envelopes as a help for Trading
g)Trading examples - Edge Band trading / Mid Band Trading
h) Mathematical annexes where Hurst link Spectral analysis, Fourier Analysis, Parabolic Interpolation, Trigonometrric Curve Fitting and Frequency response Characteristics to his work and cycles

Hurst Nominal(s) Models

Fact is there are 3 Cyclic or Nominal “Model(s)” we can find in Hurst works

a) – the Nominal Model described Chapter 2, page 33 of his book « Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing” published in 1970.
b) the Nominal Model described in the Course published in 1973 / 1975 by his service to investors named Cyclitec.
Lesson N° 1 – How Price Action Works – page 29 to 33
c) the Simplified Model used in the same course

why 3 “Models” ?
what are the differences ?
did Hurst explained the slippage from one “model” to the others ?

The Nominal model in Profit Magic – 1970

Hereunder you will find the same initial ” Nominal Model” expressed :

– in calendar days (CD) (I have not taken into account the bi-sextiles years)
– in theoretical trading days (TD) (5 trading days (TD) per week
– in “real” trading days based on an average annualized count issued from a study of an american trader rounded to 256 Trading Days (TD) .

I use also this “average” – 256 TD – for my time scaling in my Gann Studies .

Hereunder you will find the Nominal Model described in the Cyclitec Services Course (1975)

If you compare both Nominal Models the difference between the initial Model of Profit Magic and the Nominal Model proposed in the Cyclitec Course, you can observe that :
– the 3 years Cycle,
– the 1 year cycle .
– the 6 months cycle
– the 3 months cycle
have disappeared without explanation

Then you observe the appearance in the model of cycles expressed in days

The Simplified Model (for the Dummies) ( Cyclitec Course 1975)

BTC 1min

Personally looking for longs at the lower limit of channel since we're pretty much uptrending as it seems.

The same “Simplified Model” expressed in calendar and trading days

Fact is everybody has his own Cyclic model.

Eliades has his own model very close of the Simplified Cyclic Model shown by Hurst in his Cyclitec Course of 1975.

with some difference

There is no 4 and 8 years Cycle in Hurst model

Anyway it is of minor importance because there is no real Hurst Cyclic Model.

to be followed

Thought I'd accompany the pull to the lower limit:


EDIT: followup

Followup

BTCUSD 1 mn

Centered Moving Average 16 (red) turned Up

ooened Long position

BTC

BTCUSD 1 mn

Long Follow Up

BTCUSD 1 mn

Closed Long position + 88