Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 384 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #7,661
  • Mar 5, 2022 4:12am Mar 5, 2022 4:12am
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  • #7,662
  • Mar 5, 2022 4:16am Mar 5, 2022 4:16am
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  • #7,663
  • Mar 5, 2022 4:22am Mar 5, 2022 4:22am
0n this BTCUSD 1 mn screen, Centered Moving Average 128 (ocre) gives us as many informations as Centered Moving Average 256 (brown)
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  • #7,664
  • Mar 5, 2022 4:26am Mar 5, 2022 4:26am
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  • #7,665
  • Mar 5, 2022 4:28am Mar 5, 2022 4:28am
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  • #7,666
  • Mar 5, 2022 4:31am Mar 5, 2022 4:31am
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  • #7,667
  • Mar 5, 2022 5:04am Mar 5, 2022 5:04am
Do your homework;

Generate your useful "operative statistics;

Coders who generally never trade in the real life generate routine statistics unesuful for trading;

Hereunder you count 20 intersections of Centered Moving Average 16 (red) and Centered Moving Average 256 (brown). Between the shortest Centered Moving Average we us and the Longest. This for BTCUSD 1 mn.from February 4 0.00 to February 5 8.00.

20 intersections in 32 hours , Roughly one intersection every 96 minutes in average. In short every 1 1/2 hour

You immediately note that all these intersections have not the same "weigh" , value, consequence
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  • #7,668
  • Edited 7:36am Mar 5, 2022 5:20am | Edited 7:36am
When the Underlying Trend is Flat / Neutral - which means that the Underlying Trend do not add or substract something to BTC 1 mn Price Action Ehlers tell us we are ina Cyclic Mode

Cycles are visually obvious and their Peaks are in the Middle (that is the idea)

Here the Centered Moving Average 256 (brown) shows us the Trend.

But which Trend ? Not the 256 minutes Trend (4 Hours ) because CMA 256 suppresses this frequency / vibration in the Data.

Centered Moving Average 256 shows us the present Trend , sum of ALL Cycles (Frequencies, Vibrations) whose span (vibration, frequency) is greater than 256
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  • #7,669
  • Mar 5, 2022 5:25am Mar 5, 2022 5:25am
This is my BTC Daily..... a great weekend to all falks!
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  • #7,670
  • Mar 5, 2022 5:42am Mar 5, 2022 5:42am
When BTCUSD 1 mn is in a Cycle Mode
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  • #7,671
  • Mar 5, 2022 8:13am Mar 5, 2022 8:13am
Eliades Cycles - BTC Daily - Cycle 24-27
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  • #7,672
  • Mar 5, 2022 8:16am Mar 5, 2022 8:16am
Master Parisboy, what do you think about Eliades Hurst CYcle view? This is a useful table to set FLD
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  • #7,673
  • Mar 5, 2022 8:31am Mar 5, 2022 8:31am
Hello Alain

Due to the small events happening outside the AT world, I am looking at longer time frames using MMC etc...

On the Mini Dax in UT Week, I have those :

- 16 and 256 only to guess the cycle , or where we are in the current one to guess the next one

- in full gear, to have and idea about what levels are given by Focal Points of magnitude 5 , ie the 5 MMC crossing in the same area ( 16 / 32 / 64 / 128 / 256 )

- I am not using the Tilman in this UT for my day trading, but I find them useful for the week end analysis

I will be watching the 11 300 area if we go there at least for a bounce.
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  • #7,674
  • Mar 5, 2022 8:34am Mar 5, 2022 8:34am
Quoting helioss
Master Parisboy, what do you think about Eliades Hurst CYcle view? This is a useful table to set FLD {image}
Hello Helioss.

Never saw before this table. Thank you for posting it.

Where it comes from ? which book or article ?

I never was really impressed by Eliades technicity on "Cycles".

Peter Eliades only interesting thing I read is a somewhat 30 pages intervention in a compilation book (a dozen of different writers on different subjects ). Eliades was writing on Hurst Cycle Model. and on FLD.

I will try to find the book in my archive.

I will also write on my opinions on "HurstCycle Model) later because it is important.
  • #7,675
  • Mar 5, 2022 8:36am Mar 5, 2022 8:36am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Hello Helioss. Never saw before this table. Where it comes from ? which book or article ? I never was really impressed by Eliades technicity on "Cycles". Peter Eliades only interesting thing I read is a somewhat 30 pages intervention in a compilation book (a dozen of different writers on different subjects ). Eliades was writing on Hurst Cycle Model. and on FLD. I will try to find the book in my archive. I will also write on my opinions on "HurstCycle Model) later because it is important.
I found it here: https://stockmarketcycles.com/indica...ojections/docs
  • #7,676
  • Mar 5, 2022 8:43am Mar 5, 2022 8:43am
Quoting mobydik
Hello Alain Due to the small events happening outside the AT world, I am looking at longer time frames using MMC etc... On the Mini Dax in UT Week, I have those : - 16 and 256 only to guess the cycle , or where we are in the current one to guess the next one - in full gear, to have and idea about what levels are given by Focal Points of magnitude 5 , ie the 5 MMC crossing in the same area ( 16 / 32 / 64 / 128 / 256 ) - I am not using the Tilman in this UT for my day trading, but I find them useful for the week end analysis I will be watching the...

It is a 5 Years weeekly Chart of the DAX using the parameters 256 / 128 / 64 / 32 / 16
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  • #7,677
  • Mar 5, 2022 8:48am Mar 5, 2022 8:48am
Quoting mobydik
Hello Alain Due to the small events happening outside the AT world, I am looking at longer time frames using MMC etc... On the Mini Dax in UT Week, I have those : - 16 and 256 only to guess the cycle , or where we are in the current one to guess the next one - in full gear, to have and idea about what levels are given by Focal Points of magnitude 5 , ie the 5 MMC crossing in the same area ( 16 / 32 / 64 / 128 / 256 ) - I am not using the Tilman in this UT for my day trading, but I find them useful for the week end analysis I will be watching the...
Another combination is possible as we are in Weeks


13 weeks = 3 Months = 64 Trading Days

26 weeks = 6 Months = 128 Trading Days

39 weeks = 9 Months = 192 Trading Days

78 weeks = 18 Months = 384 Trading Days

13 weeks = 3 Months = 768 Trading Days
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  • #7,678
  • Mar 5, 2022 9:02am Mar 5, 2022 9:02am
DAX Weekly

You have to notice that CMA 13, 26, 39 are flat together since August 21
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  • #7,679
  • Mar 5, 2022 9:05am Mar 5, 2022 9:05am
Quoting helioss
{quote} I found it here: https://stockmarketcycles.com/indica...ojections/docs

Thank you Helioss.

I will look at it attentively

That was the book I talked about previously.

See Peter’s chapter in New Thinking in Technical Analysis: Trading Models from the Masters – Rick Bensignor, Wiley 2000. The chapter can be downloaded here.
  • #7,680
  • Mar 5, 2022 9:15am Mar 5, 2022 9:15am
Learn to analyze Websites

I am not the guy despising old books and articles ! Mobydick can testify I am not -

But when you read the articles section of the website of Peter Eliades , the most recent article is from 2008.

Does Peter Eliades has not published something interesting on Cycles since 2008 ?

Does he reserve his knowledge to paying customers ?
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