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  • #21
  • Feb 22, 2022 10:56pm Feb 22, 2022 10:56pm
Quoting ryuryu
Very interesting! But why EA can't have same results (btw I sit in Camp B too)? For example I can trade manually using same rules as in my EA. But manually I sometimes skip some entries. It is hard to understand why and hard to program all the possible variants. And that skipped magically not good mostly. May be that's why EA is not so good?
Hello, Ryuryu

Interesting discussion. I understand that sometimes EA enters trade that you will not. But how come that cannot be programmed too? It has to be some concrete reason right? If EA becomes too specific because of too many rules, it means that when you trade different trades, you are using different strategies (different method that has to be programmed as another EA). My mind is currently spitted in half whether I should continue my forex study by manual studying (looking at charts, draw lines, demo trade everyday) to gain more insight or continue using my statistics approach (testing more of statistical data and backtest using programming).

BTW could you give an example of when an EA would enter a trade and you will not?
regards,
Ant
  • #22
  • Feb 22, 2022 11:25pm Feb 22, 2022 11:25pm
Quoting Antth
{quote} Hello, Ryuryu Interesting discussion. I understand that sometimes EA enters trade that you will not. But how come that cannot be programmed too? It has to be some concrete reason right? If EA becomes too specific because of too many rules, it means that when you trade different trades, you are using different strategies (different method that has to be programmed as another EA). My mind is currently spitted in half whether I should continue my forex study by manual studying (looking at charts, draw lines, demo trade everyday) to gain more...
Hi Antth!

I think we are using bots wrong way.
First I think that the naming is wrong. They are not experts and they don't give any advice. But since forex is a game of fakes they call it Expert Advisors. The same bullshit like saying that RSI show oversold or that historical high-low are support and resistance. All statements lie and fake.

Second. All we have is OHCL data - open, high, close and low. There are no other data available on forex. I said many times that you can play with that data the way you wish. You can multiply it, divide, do what you want. And your robot works with the same data too.

I made million tests, and my stats say that: more trades faster become a chance to lose. Less trades later. It is like trading on daily or on 1m. On daily you will catch your SL after 5 years of success, on 1m after 5 days.

Regarding to the statement that I'd not pick that trade but robot did - this is fake statement again. Your say that because you in the future now and you are making your decision using the data that was not available at the moment of entry.

Also there are no "patterns" and "setups". They exist only on historical charts. You 0.01 lot size can easy change the "setup" and it will be another setup.

And last but not the least. Money management. Did you ever seen the "expert advisor" that auto moves equity between more than 2 account / market? Max we have here is stupid "if equity < x% close all".
Observer effect
  • #23
  • Feb 23, 2022 12:02am Feb 23, 2022 12:02am
maybe, trading only the one of the directions? even if it is not the proper one? yet, stay loyal to it? to me, this makes the whole difference in trading and was a key moment. took me 9+ months to just learn how to use it, as there are so many possible ways...

trading becomes really hard when one starts flipping sides. robots do fail, because the price moves in squares, whose square boxes (of any sizes! a big mystery how exactly they are doing it!) tend to stay close to the even buys=sells condition. it is not exactly even, but the price algo tries instantly to keep it closer to 0 and once in a while the buy:sell balance really hits the zero.

the above thing completely disorganises any indicators in use, as the indi detects how slowly the price drags down and reports we are going down, but there is a sudden breakout higher and... it is already too late, if one does not trade breakouts in precise. or grids.

fewer the trades, the better.

forgot to add a value to the thread.

edit: please add grids, moving averages, breakouts, maybe even channels - don't work! especially grids!

fibo or Fibonacci levels?

plus the whatever pivot points?

if anyone can recall any rules of these MUST HAVE super accurate tools?

i disrespect them, as finding them as useful as anything else one can imagine. they are not special, i mean...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #24
  • Feb 23, 2022 12:06am Feb 23, 2022 12:06am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi Antth! I think we are using bots wrong way. First I think that the naming is wrong. They are not experts and they don't give any advice. But since forex is a game of fakes they call it Expert Advisors. The same bullshit like saying that RSI show oversold or that historical high-low are support and resistance. All statements lie and fake. Second. All we have is OHCL data - open, high, close and low. There are no other data available on forex. I said many times that you can play with that data the way you wish. You can multiply it, divide,...
Thanks for your reply, ryuryu

I consider myself as a hardcore tester as well! And what I have found using (as you said haha) only OHCL data is that, the result is always going to be 50% win rate with 1:1RRR (without commission/ swap/spread) and that is the reasons that traders with no edge lose. I am testing on multiple currency pairs on 1 min charts. using data from all the timeframe but I have found that nothing works on all the currencies all the time.
I am not using Buit-in tester BTW. I custom build the program myself so I think that I am much more flexible than normal tester.

But even with powerful tester, I have to admit that I cannot go live yet because I cannot make peace with myself without knowing that I can make more than 50% win rate with fees included.

So I think I do agree with you on second point.using OHLC calculation is like taking trade randomly at least from what I gained from past testing. But without said statistics testing working, how can I gain confident on trading live? For example, did you find that using volume data from CME to incorporate calculation helps improve the win rate so you can gain confident? There has to be something that you know it works before trading live. And I am trying to test that using program. Do you think that I am DOOMED to fail because of my viewpoint? Because I only backtest using robot i.e. computer?

About "patterns" and "setup", you mean that it is some kind of illusion in our mind after seeing the chart right? That I think I can agree but then HOW can anyone make money at all without the chart? Should I just get rid of the chart and what would we trade on?

About your final point, as a programmer, I have to say that you can program a robot to move your equity on some conditions. Maybe it is restricted by your platform API/Plugins and verification process (maybe for security reason?, you are trying to move money out of the platform). But if you can get pass that it is certainly possible.

Please feel free to discuss,
Ant
  • #25
  • Feb 23, 2022 12:40am Feb 23, 2022 12:40am
Quoting Antth
the result is always going to be 50% win rate with 1:1RRR (without commission/ swap/spread) a
I mean that:

For example we have only OHCL data. And we want to pick tops and bottoms.
What average trader will use? RSI or Stochastic. RSI is better, because you have to say/write only 2 letters. Stoch is too complicated.
What average trader will do next? Try to find "non-lagging" RSI.
What average trader will not do ever? Study that RSI is oscillator and study how it works. That average trader will never ever check its formula.

What average trader will use as TP/SL? Some magic number like 50 points. Or 333. Or 250. But why? Yesterday night TP distance for BTC was 0.28%, now it is 0.06% only. It can't be static. Because it depends on market conditions.

So what you want to test here? What results you want to get if you are using a) oscillator to pick top or bottom and b) static distance for TP/SL

For example I'm using stoch for exit. Not for entry, for exit. It works great. Like it was made for it and was waiting when people start to use it that way.

About volume data. I'm trading crypto and there are volume data provided. On forex it is not so I have to buy it from CME. I don't know why brokers have to copy the data and why they want to have their candles equal to some "master" data, but it works and you can see exactly where the egg is and where the chicken is.

Quoting MoneyZilla
maybe, trading only the one of the directions? even if it is not the proper one? yet, stay loyal to it? to me, this makes the whole difference in trading and was a key moment. took me 9+ months to just learn how to use it, as there are so many possible ways... trading becomes really hard when one starts flipping sides.
That sounds really great and interesting. I have found that I love shorts.
The key here is that 99% don't know how to short. All people know how to long. But not how to short.
So longs and shorts are different. Also there is about 30% difference in distance (way) of longs and shorts. Shorts go more.

If say in words of math if you will use only shorts you will have some advantage on the market. Because all the lazy dreamers know how to long only.
Observer effect
  • #26
  • Feb 23, 2022 2:03am Feb 23, 2022 2:03am
Ryuryu,

Fair point about dynamic aspect.

Thanks for the discussion,
Ant
  • #27
  • Feb 23, 2022 2:30am Feb 23, 2022 2:30am
Quoting Antth
Ryuryu, Fair point about dynamic aspect. Thanks for the discussion, Ant
Yeah, for example today I was thinking how to REALLY pick tops and bottoms.
Then I thought that may be the good way to do it is to measure the distance from some average. For example from EMA 60. Or from LWMA 33. Whatever.
Good idea? Good.

What's next? Next I picked up the BTC price and set to draw +0.8% from EMA 60 up and -0.8% from EMA 60 lower.
Looks good! But, if I switch my chart to Gold, or EURUSD? +0.8% is on the Moon. It is too far away.
What to do? I can change it manually each time I change my trading asset. But it is no possible in real life. And next question, if 0.8% good for BTC how much it will be for EU, GU, XAU, XRP?

So we have to start our journey from something. Let's choose average candle size for example. Or ADR.
And magic! Now we have it working on every asset! Choose what you want.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 108 KB

Here we have:
1. Stoch on top (red diamond)
2. Reverse candle (blue +)
3. Price is far away > than 5x average distance
4. Volume Delta changed from positive to negative

What you need more to decide to entry or not?

(BTW triangles on the chart are OHCL signals. Compare the quality)
Observer effect
  • #28
  • Feb 23, 2022 4:00am Feb 23, 2022 4:00am
Quoting Antth
{quote} Thanks for your reply, ryuryu I consider myself as a hardcore tester as well! And what I have found using (as you said haha) only OHCL data is that, the result is always going to be 50% win rate with 1:1RRR (without commission/ swap/spread) and that is the reasons that traders with no edge lose...
might sound hard a little but, but i am highly friendly. just my own way of expressing things.

let me push you from the cliff's edge. you want it badly.

i am pretty sure you did trow away in the bin so many profitable set ups. you need to look differently at the nice setups that do fail at the end, eventually.

after a backtesting. decide on a budget. repeat it frequently. weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, ext. be consistent, as not all entries are equal and we dont know which entry will be good or bad. and let it go. those who make it, will make it big. big enough to cover for those who cant make it. it is as simple as this.

just change the approach. this is the real money management. for me. this is how i understand it. and it does work for me personally. and i do not have or own the perfect strategy. you can fully trust me on this one. it is just risk and then reward. mostly happy with 1:10 or higher. this is not RRR for an entry, but for a strategy. when is bad is bad. i take it up onto my ass. but this is just 2 out of 10 times or so... not afraid to repeat. failure is just part of the repeat. 1:10 or higher (draw-down:return/profit) just to make sure i have more left, even if i have to fail few times...

Quote
But even with powerful tester, I have to admit that I cannot go live yet because I cannot make peace with myself without knowing that I can make more than 50% win rate with fees included.
you can make money with 20%. why would you limit yourself to 50%+? do 20% and let them run... mines are around or below 20%. you see? i am working with a garbage systems?

Quote
Do you think that I am DOOMED to fail because of my viewpoint?
yeah. i think you are. you are a coder. it is very rare a coder to be a good trader. you need to code for a living. probably it is not gonna work for you. unless you take my advise and jump from the cliff? who knows? you might have to learn to fly? fast?

you have not tried it yet. the exact way i suggested it.

i hope you get my jokes.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #29
  • Feb 23, 2022 4:32am Feb 23, 2022 4:32am
Quoting ryuryu
Here we have: 1. Stoch on top (red diamond) 2. Reverse candle (blue +) 3. Price is far away > than 5x average distance 4. Volume Delta changed from positive to negative What you need more to decide to entry or not? (BTW triangles on the chart are OHCL signals. Compare the quality)
Ryuryu,
Nice entry!

A thing that I have done myself with some kind of MA (doesn't matters EMA/SMA/LWMA/etc) is that I measure the distance between price and that MA (or maybe between long MA and short MA, I think result should be the same)

Then every trade entry that I take (entry rule can be any other thing, for example let's say I use reversed candle as entry point) I record the distance at the instance. Then I compare my trade result with other group of difference value of distance.

I usually divide the distance into quantile (4 equal number of trade group), usually be (extreme negative)/(slightly negative)/(slightly positive)/(extreme positive). But result is usually mixed. Sometimes (slightly positive distance) can have better win rate than extreme positive when doing short. Do you have the opinion on why is the case? Is this because I have not divided data to small enough group and extreme values are still mixed with not so extreme value. or because I have been using static sl/tp all along?

Sorry if it is all text and blah blah blah, I am trying my best to explain myself here haha.

Actually the dynamic value of TP/SL (such as using ATR/ADR, high/low of previous n candles of some TF) is also already programmed in my tester but I need some time to test and digest all the information. Usually I do static tp/sl because it is easier to evaluate result (if trades have more than 60% win rate it is already GOLD, easy as that but that never happens LOL). With dynamic aspect I have to look at the result more closely as bugs do happens.
  • #30
  • Edited 6:06am Feb 23, 2022 4:58am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} might sound hard a little but, but i am highly friendly. just my own way of expressing things.
Hello, MoneyZilla

First, Nice username. And thank you very much for your good intentions. Don't worry about your expression I am not easily offended though sometimes my English expression might be lacking.

Please pardon me, I have done some of the tests you mentioned as well .
For example, To let the profit run. I have a setting in the tester to leave TP as blank so it is the same as no TP. SL is essential though You cannot test without some kind of specific SL whether it is ATR or some line on the chart or static value.

After I set blank TP, I can tell it to close position if something happens. I can take partial of my funds out as well. Or change my initial stoploss when something happens. I tried scaling in also. But from what I found, what those thing change is usually not average profit but the SD of your profit, meaning you will get variety of result from vastly negative to vastly positive without some kind of money management. If I have to guess, when strategy has around 20% win rate. the Win/Loss amount of money/pip ratio has to be around 4:1. Meaning if you take enough trades net profit will goes to zero, But if you can mange 1:10 profit/loss with 20% win rate. Your entry, or exit or something has to be better than average is it not?

Now I am starting to suspect it is exit indicators that I have been lacked.

About your point, does this mean that you start trading with some TP in mind. If you reach it take it and start a new trade. If sl get hit, you start new trade with more TP in mind and wait for the profit. Doing this again and again?

Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere, I am just a newbie.

Hey hey are you suggesting I took the leap of faith and just jump!
Good advice but not with my money maybe!
  • #31
  • Feb 23, 2022 5:10am Feb 23, 2022 5:10am
Quoting Antth
{quote} Ryuryu, Nice entry! A thing that I have done myself with some kind of MA (doesn't matters EMA/SMA/LWMA/etc) is that I measure the distance between price and that MA (or maybe between long MA and short MA, I think result should be the same) Then every trade entry that I take (entry rule can be any other thing, for example let's say I use reversed candle as entry point) I record the distance at the instance. Then I compare my trade result with other group of difference value of distance. I usually divide the distance into quantile (4 equal...
I think that we are using the indicators data in wrong way. Distance is not the entry. It is filter for another entry signal. And if you are using MA for filtering then you cant use MA for entry. Because it is the same. Reverse candle is good. So for example it price is > than X away from MA then look for reverse candle. But reverse candle is too easy to manipulate. That's why volume is better. To cheat volume you have to spend money, it is not "free" like candle drawings.

Amnd of course static TP/SL is nonsense. Before entering the trade I ask myself a question: is there any room to trade? It is very important especially if you have fees, spread, swaps and so on.

And btw testing with zero spread and commissions also useless. I was very impressed when realized that spread+fee for me >50% of my trading costs. So I must have at least 75% winrate to cover them! 75 winrate will be zero. So you decide is it worth to calculate them or not
Observer effect
  • #32
  • Feb 23, 2022 12:19pm Feb 23, 2022 12:19pm
Quoting Antth
{quote} If I have to guess, when strategy has around 20% win rate. the Win/Loss amount of money/pip ratio has to be around 4:1.
no. i do not use fixed tp. using net tp instead. depending on the conditions, which are unpredictable at any given moment of time, a net tp of 350 pips might take from 350 pips up to 1000 pips of even more. i could say it is dynamic tp.

Quote
Meaning if you take enough trades net profit will goes to zero, But if you can mange 1:10 profit/loss with 20% win rate. Your entry, or exit or something has to be better than average is it not?
static tps requite knowledge where to stop and knowing the max tops/bottoms per direction. as a hobby trader, i have zero knowledge on these... probably my entries are... very likely... better than the average. as for an entry i wait for top/bottom behind my back to form and this gives a slight advantage on the exit.

Quote
Now I am starting to suspect it is exit indicators that I have been lacked.
not using any indis for the exits. but maybe this is a good idea, if you can develop it further?

Quote
About your point, does this mean that you start trading with some TP in mind. If you reach it take it and start a new trade. If sl get hit, you start new trade with more TP in mind and wait for the profit. Doing this again and again?
yes. it is something like that. not always, but more than 50% of my strategies rely on net pips as a tp, which include all costs made until target gets reached.

Quote
Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere, I am just a newbie. Hey hey are you suggesting I took the leap of faith and just jump! Good advice but not with my money maybe!
haha!
i am just a hobby trader.
please, keep that in mind.
as such i can talk anything i like. a hobby is a hobby. plus, look at my real name?

btw, in the Cable tread, i have mentioned few times that i do expect the Cable to fall and the Gold to jump higher, first 1,975 and then 2,075 and maybe even 2,175 later this year. most here think of me as a stupid and are probably very much right. just keep that in mind when you read my writings...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #33
  • Feb 24, 2022 10:49am Feb 24, 2022 10:49am
Quote
So for example it price is > than X away from MA then look for reverse candle.
I think I have to look more closely if you found that MA distance is working for you. This has to be because I did something wrong.

Quote
And btw testing with zero spread and commissions also useless. I was very impressed when realized that spread+fee for me >50% of my trading costs. So I must have at least 75% winrate to cover them! 75 winrate will be zero.
of course! And I wholeheartedly believe you because you are trading intraday. If you cannot reach 75% I don't think you can make profit either. Good for you. I hope I can do that some day though.

Quote
haha!
i am just a hobby trader.
please, keep that in mind.
Don't be so humble. I have tried to be professional and didn't make a dime trading and even lose some . And you are telling me you are hobby trader. What does that make me!
  • #34
  • Last Post: Edited 1:04pm Feb 24, 2022 12:45pm | Edited 1:04pm
The real trick to making algos work or any type of trend trading is not making them enter the market or just entering . they all can do that. its making them NOT enter the market. and then when i take a couple of hits , just have it stop and come back tomorrow. more times than not if youve taken a couple of hits its not gonna be a very good day i.e below average volatility. thats usually what kills them. maybe try them on CFD indices or something that has higher % ATR than currency pairs because most currency pairs have 21 day ATR below 1% and most indices are 3X that.

at least that is the way id look at it.
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