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lets develop a system which is very very simple but effective. 7 replies

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Trading Made Very Simple and Profitable instructions

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Nov 27, 2020 5:32am Nov 27, 2020 5:32am
- You can use any repainting indicator you like.
- Only manual trading! No EA!!! Never!
- Only daily TF and higher. Remember that the bigger TF the bigger gains you can show!
- It is better to add on your chart as many indicators as you can find. The best way if they all be oscillators or all trend. Black backgroud is must have, people believe better than if white. Also you can say "no indicators" and then you must draw lines! As many lines as you can draw. There must be at least 23.6 lines on the chart.
- You must be a guru of finding good entries and create screenshots with arrows to show everyone the edge.
- Words "simple", "learn", "study" must appear in every reply. If some ask about exit rules - just say "you must have a good mm system to follow".
- Never show real trades.
- You must jump from one indicator to another, replacing them for better results and changing rules every day/week!
- Only static TP and SL.
- No exit rules. Let it be magic. Also you can always say that you have closed at the top/bottom.
- No hedges! Only one directional trades.
- Better to have not traditional candles. Something like heikin is good. Remember to add more mystery!

Please feel free to add more rules if I missed some!
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
- You can use any repainting indicator you like. - Only manual trading! No EA!!! Never! - Only daily TF and higher. Remember that the bigger TF the bigger gains you can show! - It is better to add on your chart as many indicators as you can find. The best way if they all be oscillators or all trend. Black backgroud is must have, people believe better than if white. Also you can say "no indicators" and then you must draw lines! As many lines as you can draw. There must be at least 23.6 lines on the chart. - You must be a guru of finding good entries...
Avoid trading during ranging conditions.
An EA needs its own section:

"No discussion on creating an EA. EA's are useless and everyone knows there is no successful EA and will always result in blowing your account."

It's not like there are hundred successful strategies and when automated, they all crash. The simple point is; there isn't {almost} a successful strategy lying around, and it isn't any surprise that automating any of them leads to undesirable results.

While automation has it's own challenges, EA is poorly portrayed as a major factor for the destructing the success factor{which it never had}.


Edit: Before any one gets worked up- i am talking about strategies that have supposedly clear cut rules and no "subjectivity".
Yeah, for example we have a strategy. If we program all the rules it will show bad results. But how it can be profitable trading manually? It can't. Because if you trade manually you miss good entries, violate rules sometimes and so on. Adding more mess.

I just thought that may be there are no successful EA because no one will share it or sell? Because imagine you have 1% daily gain EA. You will be millionaire in a year. You don't have to sell it, create a firm, pay taxes, find clients, advertise and so on. You just can trade starting from 100$.

Second thought is that all the strategies here are one directional one lot at once. They all is a try to find best possible entry. But this is not the edge. The hardest thing is to find good exit. Even hedge in most cases are something strange/evil. Most people just can buy and sell higher, they hardly can short. So hedges and multi-directional trades are just impossible to understand. And indeed it is barely impossible to calculate it manually.
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
Yeah, for example we have a strategy. If we program all the rules it will show bad results. But how it can be profitable trading manually? It can't. Because if you trade manually you miss good entries, violate rules sometimes and so on. Adding more mess. I just thought that may be there are no successful EA because no one will share it or sell? Because imagine you have 1% daily gain EA. You will be millionaire in a year. You don't have to sell it, create a firm, pay taxes, find clients, advertise and so on. You just can trade starting from 100$....
I will never understand people selling "profitable" EAs! If that crap can make you money on auto pilot so why the hell would you need to sell it? The answers they give for that kind of question are hilarious
exactly it is with people who have a good manual system, which is profitable with them, why do they want to sell this then?
Yes, exactly. Money loves silence. Why to "teach" people on the internet forum?
Observer effect
ryuryu,

I feel your pain!

I think that the market has trending days and ranging days (ranging most of the time). To put the market in a can (EA) seems impossible.

I find that there might be some semi-automatic EA's that can be used as tools to place your trades at the moment of your choosing.

ES

P.S. Why do people share? because they want something. improvement, recognition, sales....etc. Some share in these forums to create an online journal so that they may keep their discipline intact....trading is a lonely gig.

Quoting ryuryu
Yeah, for example we have a strategy. If we program all the rules it will show bad results. But how it can be profitable trading manually? It can't. Because if you trade manually you miss good entries, violate rules sometimes and so on. Adding more mess. I just thought that may be there are no successful EA because no one will share it or sell? Because imagine you have 1% daily gain EA. You will be millionaire in a year. You don't have to sell it, create a firm, pay taxes, find clients, advertise and so on. You just can trade starting from 100$....
Yeah, you right. But if there are no profitable EA, there can't be profitable manual trading too. But it exist.
In fact what EA do? It calculate fast. Human can't be so fast. For example let's take Trade Made Simple thread. There are several rules: time, tdi, stoch, candle color and candle count. That's all. How the heck it can't be programmed? And how the heck the same time it can't work automatically and will work manually?
Observer effect
Well..back to your hypothesis...anything worth a damn is protected. I believe this as some traders with large houses have told me so.
ES

Quoting ryuryu
Yeah, you right. But if there are no profitable EA, there can't be profitable manual trading too. But it exist. In fact what EA do? It calculate fast. Human can't be so fast. For example let's take Trade Made Simple thread. There are several rules: time, tdi, stoch, candle color and candle count. That's all. How the heck it can't be programmed? And how the heck the same time it can't work automatically and will work manually?
Quoting ryuryu
Yeah, you right. But if there are no profitable EA, there can't be profitable manual trading too. But it exist. In fact what EA do? It calculate fast. Human can't be so fast. For example let's take Trade Made Simple thread. There are several rules: time, tdi, stoch, candle color and candle count. That's all. How the heck it can't be programmed? And how the heck the same time it can't work automatically and will work manually?
Hi ryuryu

Do you want to know how Algo traders construct EA's that make money in these modern times?

Hint - They construct porfolio's where they run multiple EA's, some anchor the porfolio while others protect draw down.
So a group of EA's (because they are wasteful by themselves) work together to achieve a profit result measured by Yearly Results.

Do you have 500-1000 hours of time for each Algo to get it too Market.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting ryuryu
Yeah, you right. But if there are no profitable EA, there can't be profitable manual trading too. But it exist. In fact what EA do? It calculate fast. Human can't be so fast. For example let's take Trade Made Simple thread. There are several rules: time, tdi, stoch, candle color and candle count. That's all. How the heck it can't be programmed? And how the heck the same time it can't work automatically and will work manually?
If I can add more to this discussion

The profit factor for "trading made simple" Algo is only 1.20 - a figure I believe Emmanuel mentioned as well.
That is the result I got from my EA following the basic rules of the system. That figure results in a profit hardly worth trading on the live market because of margin of error.

However if we trade it manually, I believe you can achieve a far higher profit factor than a single EA can achieve.

So here is the issue'

Camp A - You can program any EA to follow any rule a manual discretionary trader takes with the same result or better.
Camp B- You can never program an EA to match a discretionary trader.

After a few years of Algo developing, testing and running EA's on a live market - I sit in Camp B

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Edited 1:01pm Nov 29, 2020 10:18am | Edited 1:01pm
Very interesting!

But why EA can't have same results (btw I sit in Camp B too)?
For example I can trade manually using same rules as in my EA. But manually I sometimes skip some entries. It is hard to understand why and hard to program all the possible variants. And that skipped magically not good mostly. May be that's why EA is not so good?
Observer effect
Quoting ElectricSavant
ryuryu, I feel your pain! I think that the market has trending days and ranging days (ranging most of the time). To put the market in a can (EA) seems impossible. I find that there might be some semi-automatic EA's that can be used as tools to place your trades at the moment of your choosing. ES P.S. Why do people share? because they want something. improvement, recognition, sales....etc. Some share in these forums to create an online journal so that they may keep their discipline intact....trading is a lonely gig. {quote}
I most definitely believe there are profitable EAs out there. But guess what? As long as they are profitable, they will never share their stuff!

HFTs used by banks and big players are EAs as well and they absolutely make money.
Quoting ryuryu
Very interesting! But why EA can't have same results (btw I sit in Camp B too)? For example I cant trade manually using same rules as in my EA. But manually I skip some entries. It is hard to understand why and hard to program all the possible variants. May be that's why EA is not so good?
An EA should do exactly what you program it to do. If you have a winning strategy and code it correctly, EA will do as you want. There is no such thing as not profitable EA but not profitable strategies.
Quoting ryuryu
Very interesting! But why EA can't have same results (btw I sit in Camp B too)? For example I can trade manually using same rules as in my EA. But manually I sometimes skip some entries. It is hard to understand why and hard to program all the possible variants. And that skipped magically not good mostly. May be that's why EA is not so good?
I learned to code EAs and running a few. I think most EAs especially shared by someone for free do not have fail-safe mechanisms, so it can make mistakes that manual trader wouldnt have, such as
1. Skipping executions because of misquote prices and no reaction to those events
2. Unable to react to gapped prices
3. script crashes

If an EA can cover those, pretty much performing as well as manual trader. Rules have to be very strict. Some people think that an EA is not as profitable as manual trading the same strategy, is because the strategy is indeed not mechanistic, or during manual trading/backtesting, a lot of losing trades are overlooked.
Quoting ryuryu
Very interesting! But why EA can't have same results (btw I sit in Camp B too)? For example I can trade manually using same rules as in my EA. But manually I sometimes skip some entries. It is hard to understand why and hard to program all the possible variants. And that skipped magically not good mostly. May be that's why EA is not so good?
If you program all the variables in, you would need to set external functions in as will. You would end up with a EA requiring too much optimisation so curve fitting becomes the major problem.
I have never met a Algo trader who trades a successful and profitable EA with more than 3 external functions.
It seems it can only be done for short periods that way.

I know every manual trader who has never tried to code a EA in their life will say it should be easy.
IT isn’t and you cannot code every factor in - no chance.
As an example, I trade a EA developed from a strategy that a two time world forex champion uses, he developed this EA himself.
It sucks - too much optimisation and it never matches his manual results.

Why?

Who wants to spend 10 years developing and testing the ultimate EA only to find it’s so large, so many external functions, it just fails.

Professional Algo prop firms do it a different way. They run 50-80 EA’s that are simple and require little optimisation. They run them only during good market conditions for that EA and just harvest pips slowly.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} As an example, I trade a EA developed from a strategy that a two time world forex champion uses, he developed this EA himself. It sucks - too much optimisation and it never matches his manual results.
But if you will trade it manually results will be the same as that champion has?

Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Some people think that an EA is not as profitable as manual trading the same strategy, is because the strategy is indeed not mechanistic, or during manual trading/backtesting, a lot of losing trades are overlooked.
Yeah exactly. That's why every strategy looks good, because you just reject to see bad entries and your eyes always trying to find a good one. That's true!

So as I understand EA must be small, fast and reliable. But the conditions must be chosen by human.
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
Second thought is that all the strategies here are one directional one lot at once. They all is a try to find best possible entry. But this is not the edge. The hardest thing is to find good exit. Even hedge in most cases are something strange/evil. Most people just can buy and sell higher, they hardly can short. So hedges and multi-directional trades are just impossible to understand. And indeed it is barely impossible to calculate it manually.
Every strategy is one directional because multi directional trading is a bunch of crap that you just made up, you can only be net long or net short in the market, just one of them, it is impossible to be both at the same time, so you can only trade in one direction. You can manage your risk/exposure to the market, you can change the direction but you have to pick one direcction.
I have one idea and testing it now. For example you have a signal to enter long. Everything is ok, higher TFs are long, moving averages are in a good order, stoch is good, tdi, news are positive, Trump no tweet, there are no level etc... but it can be local top.
So first thing you can do is to set a stop loss. Okay, but 3 years of testings I still can't find how to use stops. There are 2 cases how they work. First is when price go and hit your stop and then go to your take. Second is when sl hit and price go wrong.
So to avoid it we can use hedge. We can open x2 position short. But here we have a problem. Price can go up and down several times, even all day long or 2 days. So we will be triggered multiply times and there is no chance to have so much margin used. But we have a laggy indicators such as moving average. Lag and average are the power in this situation. We can use moving average instead of price to trigger hedge. So in this case if price will move up and down with spikes that will mean that in average there was no big movement. Because +100 and -100 is zero in average. And there will be no hedge positions opened. But if the price will continue to go some direction we can or close our good long or open and then close both (long and hedge short). We can use stop loss same way too. But in case of hedging it will be big/little profit or little loss, and in case on stop loss it will be big loss.
Anyway this is not about what to use stop loss or hedge. It is about the approach to use moving average instead of price for that purpose.
Observer effect
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