Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 368 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Planetary cycles, astrological theory of cycles of the markets 510 replies

Forecast Forex using Numeric Cycles and Astrology Cycles 38 replies

Planetary Cycles... Plotting Cycles into the Future 0 replies

Market Waves are NOT Cycles 8 replies

Waves/Trends/Cycles 0 replies

Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
Exit Attachments

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #7,341
  • Feb 20, 2022 9:59pm Feb 20, 2022 9:59pm
Thought I'd share a couple of trades I couldn't resist not taking.

EURUSD:
So I wanted to start experimenting with FLDs. So the idea is when you get/estimate a focal point, there's two outcomes possible.
1- Sideways price motion and continuation
2- Reversal

I added an FLD chart to just observe the hesitation zone that occurs after a focal point. Often there's possibility of the continuation trade after break of this zone and FLDs to the trend direction.

This is just that case. After the FLD break to the upside, took a long and estimated the target by having the focal point, which it reached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 116 KB
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,342
  • Feb 20, 2022 10:07pm Feb 20, 2022 10:07pm
The other one, BTC.

So, we built a channel using the two recent focal points.

Although I was late to pick the top of the channel, I was able to get an entry after the break and retest of the middle part of the channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 113 KB
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,343
  • Feb 21, 2022 1:36am Feb 21, 2022 1:36am
Ger40Mar22 1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax.png Size: 43 KB
  • #7,344
  • Feb 21, 2022 2:19am Feb 21, 2022 2:19am
Hi guys. Thanks to Parisboy again, this stuff is the missing puzzlepiece!

Ger40 m1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.jpg Size: 181 KB
Stick to the plan!
  • #7,345
  • Feb 21, 2022 2:45am Feb 21, 2022 2:45am
Quoting MoeinYzz
The other one, BTC. So, we built a channel using the two recent focal points. Although I was late to pick the top of the channel, I was able to get an entry after the break and retest of the middle part of the channel. {image}
Moein
Like you say,
You are doing really very well
Parisboy must surely be very pleased, simply because you do
What it says on the tin
So you are a great example of what can be done if you just apply yourself to Parisboy and his Methods
Please keep posting, you were a lurker once, now I am sure many lurkers look forward to see how you have grabbed Parisboy's Method and running with it
I can only say
Great work
Dave
  • #7,346
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:30am Feb 21, 2022 4:30am
Got to pop out for a Doctors appointment
So thought it best to Bank at half target to be on the safe side
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1a.png Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M1b.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1c.png Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M1d.png Size: 69 KB
  • #7,347
  • Edited 6:18pm Feb 21, 2022 4:38am | Edited 6:18pm
well thank you all for your nice words!

May be the time is coming that I publish a paying newsletter , sell expensive seminars, opened a signal service and even write a book, sort of " Mastering the hidden secrets of the market with the help of Centered Moving Averages "



More seriously what we do here , the methodology and the tools we use are just the end of a long chain of work which started at the beginning of the previous Century.
  • #7,348
  • Feb 21, 2022 5:05am Feb 21, 2022 5:05am
DAX 1 mn

DAX in (Down)Trending mode;

CMA's are almost parallel
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 112 KB
  • #7,349
  • Feb 21, 2022 6:32am Feb 21, 2022 6:32am
Quoting parisboy
well thank you all for your nice words! May be the time is coming that I publish a paying newsletter , sell expensive seminars, opened a signal sevice and even write a book, sort of " Mastering the hidden secrets of the market with the help of Centered Moving Averages " More seriously what we do here , the methodology and the tools we use are just the end of a long chain of work which started at the beginning...
Any discounts for
OAP's
  • #7,350
  • Feb 21, 2022 6:34am Feb 21, 2022 6:34am
Hurst First Cyclic " Nominal Model"
Attached Image
  • #7,351
  • Feb 21, 2022 6:34am Feb 21, 2022 6:34am
Well that turned out to be an expensive visit to the Doctors
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1e.png Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M1g.png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M1f.png Size: 68 KB
  • #7,352
  • Feb 21, 2022 6:49am Feb 21, 2022 6:49am
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF MOVING AVERAGES - Profit Magic - Chapter 3 - VerifiyYour Chart Patterns Page 63 - 64

Now let's discuss an artificial chart pattem. As we have seen, the price motion of stocks forms repeating patterns for perfectly valid cyclic reasons. However, the chartist has still more in the way of tricks up his sleeve. As you observe chart services,you will often note the addition of curving lines to the chart which appear to be somewhat related to price motion, but are not a part of it. These are "moving average" lines, which have come into popular usage quite recently. Why are these added to the chart and of what significance are they? Each of these has been tested by usage and found to convey more information than if price action alone were displayed. In short, they were derived empirica3y (which means stumbled upon more or less by accident!), and found to be of some use.

In order to understand why these are useful, we must probe deeply into what the characteristics of a moving average consist of. This is done in the Appendix, and only the significant results are presented here.

1. A moving average is a "smoother." It is a numerical process applied to a sequence of numbers (such as the time sequence of closing prices of a stock). The result is an elimination or reduction in magnitude of short-term fluctuations, while leaving the longer- term fluctuations modified little if at all. The net result is a smoother time sequence of numbers than the sequence to which it is applied.

2. But there is a variable involved in the use of a moving average. For example, the most commonly used ones are a ten-week and a 30.week moving average. This simply means that in each case the average is formed over a ten - week time span, or over a 30 - week time span. By inspection of the results it can be seen at once that they are different (Figure 111-10). Yet they operate upon the same numbers, namely the closing prices of a stock. Obviously, the time span of the average used olters its ~P~aracteristics Moving Averages Versus Timespan3. These alterations in characteristics can be completely quantified and predicted (as inthe Appendix). The following general results are found to be true:

a) A moving average of any given time span exactly reduces the magnitude of fluctuations of duration equal to that time span to zero.

b) The same moving average also greaUy reduces (but does not necessarily eliminate) the magnitude of all fluctuations of duration less than the time span of the moving average.

c) All fluctuations of greater than the time span of the average " come through, " or are also present in the resulting moving average line. Those with durations just a little greater than the span of the average are greatly reduced in magnitude, but this effect lessens as periodicity duration increases. Very long duration periodicitiescome through nearly unscathed.

4. Notice that the " cutoff' point, or point where a given duration periodicity is completely eliminated (duration equal to the span of the average), is a controllable variable. By choosing the span of a moving average correctly. we can control this cutoff point, thus controlling what duration periodicities we want t o suppress, or want to allow to come through for observation!

From the above description of a moving average it is seen right away that the user, while not necessarily possessing knowledge of cyclicality in price motion, nevertheless is employing a tool which is only useful in accentuating or diminishing visibility of !I cyclicality. That the result does indeed produce enough useful results t o warrant a great deal of extra computational effort in stock charting is a tribute and testimony to Ithe significance of cyclic phenomena in stock price motion!
Attached Image
  • #7,353
  • Edited 7:12am Feb 21, 2022 6:50am | Edited 7:12am
Turning out to have been
A very very expensive appointment indeed

ps
Would have, should have , but life sometimes gets in the way
2 : 1 RR reached = 256 pip winner
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H4a.png Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1c.png Size: 100 KB
  • #7,354
  • Feb 21, 2022 7:51am Feb 21, 2022 7:51am
You have to smile at this trading game
Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1d.png Size: 93 KB
  • #7,355
  • Feb 21, 2022 8:24am Feb 21, 2022 8:24am
BTCUSD 1 mn

Opened Long position
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 179 KB
  • #7,356
  • Feb 21, 2022 8:26am Feb 21, 2022 8:26am
Chart says it all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M1a.png Size: 67 KB
  • #7,357
  • Feb 21, 2022 8:49am Feb 21, 2022 8:49am
BTCUSD 1 mn

Follow-up

Target 39.200 +/- 200
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 173 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 189 KB
  • #7,358
  • Edited 12:11pm Feb 21, 2022 9:13am | Edited 12:11pm
BTCUSD 1 mn

Target reached 39.155

I chickened out and closed Long position + 1.375
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 179 KB
  • #7,359
  • Feb 21, 2022 10:59am Feb 21, 2022 10:59am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Moein Like you say, You are doing really very well Parisboy must surely be very pleased, simply because you do What it says on the tin So you are a great example of what can be done if you just apply yourself to Parisboy and his Methods Please keep posting, you were a lurker once, now I am sure many lurkers look forward to see how you have grabbed Parisboy's Method and running with it I can only say Great work Dave
Thank you Dave, your feedback means a lot ; )
All the more reason for me to keep posting and hear opinions, critiques that point to success. And also to show what can be achieved if you dedicate yourself and do the homework. Which honestly has been done countless times through parisboy and other's examples and chart shots!

Great to be here amongst you guys.
When there's a will, there's a way.
  • #7,360
  • Feb 21, 2022 11:00am Feb 21, 2022 11:00am
Trying out parisboy's "no noise" technique

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 74 KB

"When there's a double top/bottom, you should consider that there might be a cycle changing direction half-way between those two points."
When there's a will, there's a way.
19 traders viewing now