USD/JPY Discussion

it looks short, but wait for S (115.00), if we stay below S, definitely short

I'm looking at 114.40/114.20 for buys.

Price keeps violating 115.

Just have to wait for Russia to invade Ukraine this weekend and will probably get my opportunity Monday/Tuesday.

This pic look better
If we stay above green R, it looks like wedge and buy

second pic with support

No real change on the chart, unless the price gets below 113.5 decisively.

I'd agree with you except there's a big elephant in the room right now.

The imminent invasion of Ukraine which can happen any day now.

If that happens it could be a fast drop to 113.50.

Especially if it happens Saturday/Sunday because of traders who play in the pre market.

Also we have been in a 20 pip range since 5:44 am. The consolidation at this level makes me think its gonna push lower.

Usually if you hit a major support level you get a really good bounce and we didn't get that.

got to agree again

its easy to get trapped mentally (like myself) if you fundamentally see strength mid or long term. And you believe the Ukraine crisis is overblown. Although if oil spiked that is very tough on yen so I know that actually complicated the picture (hello volatility). Oil being bad for Yen as a big importer. But safe haven is strong Yen. Also, the BOJ has made comments hinting they are watching yen vs commodities. They say it’s not a problem “yet”. So, if there is a threshold where they want a strong yen near term to help their nations rising energy costs….again it gets confusing quick. Where you gotta be cautious and read the tape.

Good time to be cautious.

It looks like it will drop to the 114.50 - 114.30

This pa is nauseating to watch.

resistance sales may be okay ... nice weekend

I love how they wait until the end of the week after all markets are closed to do the press conference.

Just glad I didn't hold any open positions going into the weekend.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/18/bide...ming-days.html

I was thinking the exact same thing, they do this all the time though. All we can do is wait and see what happens Sunday!

Enjoy the weekend!

My thoughts. We shall see though..
Monthly. We have tangled with this area the last two months. However we are I believe in an ABC correction, so we need to take out the previous 118 Lower high.





Weekly a classic ABC to the upside looks to be finished, however we have yet to take out the 118. So for both to be true we need to drop a bit here off previous resistance and gain the momentum once more. Previously we took off around 112.3, so a little below that? The previous resistance is at 111.9

This is supported by the 4hr which appears to be in a wave 3 having cleared the previous low, and retested it to the upside failing. A Fib extension put here on this premise gives us a 161 possible wave three target of 113.9. If we get some ugly news.. 112.8.

The 15M.

Appears we are in wave 4. If history repeats itself we will open down a little go up to the previous resistance (4) and then continue down to finish the wave. Looking left we have a perfect 5 wave down, ABC correction before it. The channel shows this being a wave 4 as it is the first time price comes out of that channel.



Negating this would mean we take out the wave 4 and then use it as support making it a possible impulsive wave 1 to the upside.

Was that enough? SL above 15m Wave 4.

There's a wedge on the 4 hour chart, but it probably doesn't matter until Ukraine is invaded.

The usdjpy taking a breath. I hope more downtrend.

BOHICA

Nasdaq algo traders stuck to anyone who was short overnight.....

Just rotation out of yen and bonds into NQ futures.

Re-test of 114.50 is very possible though.

Nothing changed in the last 8 hours.....

Strong day yesterday with the engulf. Not much follow through today. Will entertain shorts if we close lower today.

Go to 115.70.

Long to 115.65. Short from that area.
15M ABC needs to finish. Currently stuck at resistance of A.

reset letss start again