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  • Post #9,501
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  • Feb 12, 2022 8:25am Feb 12, 2022 8:25am
  •  JereMi256
  • Joined Nov 2021 | Status: 2Yrs livexperience | 607 Posts | Invisible
Quoting Bogdanoff
Disliked
Gold.. next week prediction.. will go higher little bit then drop to nearest SR then dunno maybe will go higher or drop futher regards, {image}
Ignored
Similar analysis, i anticipate a RT of 1.36610
Risk Mgt. is the , patience...!
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  • Post #9,502
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  • Feb 12, 2022 8:28am Feb 12, 2022 8:28am
  •  Reza78
  • | Joined Aug 2018 | Status: Member | 78 Posts
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Hi Reza78....... again. Back to the Q: Where do we find these levels? Where stop-loss orders are placed. This is where the old fashion concept of “stop-loss hunt” comes from. From the necessity that large players have to enter the market in areas of liquidity as they aim to accumulate major positions. These areas will always attract interest as that’s where pockets of liquidity exist, hence allowing IT to get the best average price by reducing the risk of slippage. They're hunting down those pocket of orders. How those level are create ?....
Ignored
Hello pat...
First ...i really sorry for being late......today i was busy in the morning ....so read first your post and went to do family stuff
Second ....I am iranian and live in TEHRAN.....and not a good chef....my wife usually cooks .....in the first time i will send some iranian foods....i doubt that here is suitable for this job????

third.....reading your post about LIQUIDIRY LEVELs....i should read them again and again......unfortunately novice in forex...really appreciate you
waiting for your next posts
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  • Post #9,503
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  • Feb 12, 2022 8:29am Feb 12, 2022 8:29am
  •  Pat Chiko
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Newbie | 8,786 Posts
Quoting Waveskierrob
Disliked
{quote} Photo too big ...but family away so its pizza, beer and a sit down to what the 6 nations rugby
Ignored
Not interested looking at girls chasing the odd shape balls on the fields.

I prefer to look at girls on the poles, i mean pools, sorry, typo .......i mean pool tables
Do not get emotional when you gain or lose.
 
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  • Post #9,504
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:44am Feb 12, 2022 8:44am
  •  JereMi256
  • Joined Nov 2021 | Status: 2Yrs livexperience | 607 Posts | Invisible
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Not interested looking at girls chasing the odd shape balls on the fields. I prefer to look at girls on the poles, i mean pools, sorry, typo .......i mean pool tables
Ignored
Saturday is for naughty jokes, naughted noted, Mr. PAT!
Risk Mgt. is the , patience...!
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  • Post #9,505
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  • Feb 12, 2022 8:53am Feb 12, 2022 8:53am
  •  Pat Chiko
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Newbie | 8,786 Posts
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Hi Reza78....... Next Q : how do we look of rejection or break out ?
Ignored



Find a rejection that leads to a structure breakout via a new cycle high or low.

Other factors such as confluence, market conditions (risk on/off), market structure in higher timeframes, economic data, will also play a role in determining if the area will hold or fold, and you definitely want to account for all these elements too as part of your plan.

However, the power of retesting an area of liquidity that had previously resolved into a successful market structure breakout, as I will show in an example below, tends to be a solid edge to exploit.

Other nuances one must be aware of when trading levels of liquidity include factoring in the time.
If the separation between the creation of the liquidity area and the first retest comes after an excessive number of days/weeks (depending n the timeframe you trade), the level may not hold the same weight as it used to as the market context evolves and orders get pulled.

At the same time, if you find two or more liquidity levels nearby — clustering of multiple levels of interest — , market participants will tend to place their stop loss orders at the most extreme level, so be aware of that.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: gu 090.jpg
Size: 225 KB
Do not get emotional when you gain or lose.
 
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  • Post #9,506
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:17am Feb 12, 2022 9:55am | Edited at 10:17am
  •  Mr.Burger
  • Joined Jul 2021 | Status: 2022 target achieved! | 1,036 Posts
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Hola Juan. Don't go surfing . Bali sea level with wild waves are hitting the island. Some chart for you to look over the weekends. Tell me I'm wrong.... Gracias PAT {image}
Ignored
Pat, mojitos on the weekends are pretty good

GU, my counting on the last week are still valid as long as the price doesn't kiss the top of weekly high, you can see my previous post, but I forget the page lol

in that case ( your GU chart ) your count is not wrong..

However, the problem is that ranging can occur on 4th wave or 2nd wave in the opposite direction, that's how the invalidation level works

match with your PA to get the probability level, I use harmonic patterns to do that

Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Juan, Just tell me my count is BAD Gracias. GOLD HTF to distribution zone {image} LTF pullback {image}
Ignored

don't catch fifth before third have passed, it's to danger

the minimum requirement for 4th wave is 38.2% ret of 3rd wave, you can match PA at level 38.2% - 61.8% ret
Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
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  • Post #9,507
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 11:02am Feb 12, 2022 11:02am
  •  nagstn
  • Joined Mar 2021 | Status: Member | 249 Posts
GU - short(1h chart analysis). you inputs are welcome
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #9,508
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 11:46am Feb 12, 2022 11:46am
  •  genadi
  • Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Member | 1,619 Posts
Quoting Mr.Burger
Disliked
{quote} Pat, mojitos on the weekends are pretty good GU, my counting on the last week are still valid as long as the price doesn't kiss the top of weekly high, you can see my previous post, but I forget the page lol in that case ( your GU chart ) your count is not wrong.. However, the problem is that ranging can occur on 4th wave or 2nd wave in the opposite direction, that's how the invalidation level works match with your PA to get the probability level, I use harmonic patterns to do that {quote} don't catch fifth before...
Ignored
is it possible to make 100% profit in a year trading forex?
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  • Post #9,509
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:27pm Feb 12, 2022 12:07pm | Edited at 8:27pm
  •  Kwt4x
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 243 Posts
Quoting genadi
Disliked
{quote} is it possible to make 100% profit in a year trading forex?
Ignored
100% is not an issue, the lot size will be a factor in that. but your focus should be on executing your strategy as prefect as you can.

my worst week is 4% , when I'm away from trading most of the time and using swing methods. Pat(The Shark) scalp most days and I'm sure he pass 1%/day , and just imagine what waveskier(The Stare)rob can make

no matter what trading style you use, just trade it perfectly. the money will take care of it self.
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  • Post #9,510
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  • Feb 12, 2022 12:39pm Feb 12, 2022 12:39pm
  •  ordosgoitia
  • Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Member | 243 Posts
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Juan, Just tell me my count is BAD Gracias. GOLD HTF to distribution zone {image} LTF pullback {image}
Ignored
I have the same setup on gold
i open a few sell orders before the market closed
1
 
  • Post #9,511
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 1:36pm Feb 12, 2022 1:36pm
  •  Mr.Burger
  • Joined Jul 2021 | Status: 2022 target achieved! | 1,036 Posts
Quoting genadi
Disliked
{quote} is it possible to make 100% profit in a year trading forex?
Ignored
genadi, of course you can do that

my suggestion is :

  1. don't burn your money with a capital margin of $100 it will only waste your time collect until your capital is at least$1K
  2. don't let your trade exceed the risk by more than -2% ( -$20 if 1K ) you will have no trouble recovering if you fails
  3. fix your system until it has RRR more than 1:3 and it's absolute
  4. don't speculate too stingy in giving headroom SL ( 30% of ADR5 is my recommendation ) exp: average daily of GU is 90p your SL is -30p it's logic
  5. in that case you only need 90p ( 1:3 ) from the daily movement of GU to take +6% return and it's very possible
  6. after mastering your own system well ( 60%TA and 40%MM ) you can multiply and gain it with your own way
  7. repeat the process, without realizing your account digits will increase by itself, it is the level of utopia that all traders in the world yearn for

hope it can be useful for you and others here, --- best regards and have a great weekend

--- juan

Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
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  • Post #9,512
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 2:29pm Feb 12, 2022 2:29pm
  •  Pat Chiko
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Newbie | 8,786 Posts
Quoting nagstn
Disliked
GU - short(1h chart analysis). you inputs are welcome {image}
Ignored
Nagstn,

What is you RISK vs REWARD like ?. Looking at your chart your RRR is 1:1. ( not sexy enough to take her )

Do you know that GU is in the Ranging Phase ?

You have to trade GU with Ranging strategy ( a penguin), not by Trending Strategy ( an apple). Meaning, they are not the same strategy to trade in different phase of market.

Do not use H1 as your mapping, use Daily or H4.

Use H1 or M30 only to find better price for entry.

Attached Two Chart. Daily/H4 Map. Ask question, if you need clarification.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: gu 092.jpg
Size: 189 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: gu 093.jpg
Size: 251 KB
Do not get emotional when you gain or lose.
 
4
  • Post #9,513
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 3:16pm Feb 12, 2022 3:16pm
  •  Pat Chiko
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Newbie | 8,786 Posts
Atychiphobia


Our need to be right is blocking our trading success

The educational system spends no time teaching us how to learn from our mistakes and how to rebound from failure, yet this is critical to real learning in the first place.
Society as a whole marginalizes us if we don’t live up to its standards.
It conditions us to a life of always striving for perfection – even when no such thing exists.

We embark on a journey to become self-sufficient and self-directed traders, we start our journey completely unprepared for the reality that awaits us.
Instead of flowing and adapting to uncertainty, we desperately try to create it even where it doesn’t – and cannot – exist!

As traders, we crave the sense of certainty that analysis and the numerous indicators on our charts appear to give us, and our egos hang onto every trade we place.

Up and down moves in the markets make our moods swing like a pendulum.
And when we are proven wrong, we freak out because according to what we have learned and grew to believe, getting something wrong means there is something wrong with the system, mentor, gurus, teacher. friends etc.

So we naturally insist and try harder to be right because that is what we feel we must do. Finding another system, add more indicator, add paid courses ( all can be gotten for free)
It makes us feel smart, responsible, virtuous, and safe.

But it’s a fallacy and a never ending cycle unless we learn to break out of it.
Do not get emotional when you gain or lose.
 
21
  • Post #9,514
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 3:43pm Feb 12, 2022 3:43pm
  •  Mr.Burger
  • Joined Jul 2021 | Status: 2022 target achieved! | 1,036 Posts
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
Atychiphobia Our need to be right is blocking our trading success The educational system spends no time teaching us how to learn from our mistakes and how to rebound from failure, yet this is critical to real learning in the first place. Society as a whole marginalizes us if we don’t live up to its standards. It conditions us to a life of always striving for perfection – even when no such thing exists. We embark on a journey to become self-sufficient and self-directed traders, we start our journey completely unprepared for the reality that awaits...
Ignored
first time joining FF, what I like about you is things like this, like poetry the words are beautiful
in the way you see.. you are great at being able to distinguish newbie and oldbie traders,

Pat, you are my first best friend on this site, my respect for your kindness to me and many others who are here, God bless you
Daddy, Brother, Lover, Little Boy
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  • Post #9,515
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2022 10:13pm Feb 12, 2022 10:13pm
  •  nagstn
  • Joined Mar 2021 | Status: Member | 249 Posts
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Nagstn, What is you RISK vs REWARD like ?. Looking at your chart your RRR is 1:1. ( not sexy enough to take her ) Do you know that GU is in the Ranging Phase ? You have to trade GU with Ranging strategy ( a penguin), not by Trending Strategy ( an apple). Meaning, they are not the same strategy to trade in different phase of market. Do not use H1 as your mapping, use Daily or H4. Use H1 or M30 only to find better price for entry. Attached Two Chart. Daily/H4 Map. Ask question, if you need clarification. {image}{image}
Ignored
Thank you Pat, truly helpful. I generally do the mapping on H4 and D1...
What is the ideal RRR you do prefer?
1
 
  • Post #9,516
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2022 1:17am Feb 13, 2022 1:17am
  •  Pat Chiko
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Newbie | 8,786 Posts
Quoting nagstn
Disliked
{quote} Thank you Pat, truly helpful. I generally do the mapping on H4 and D1... What is the ideal RRR you do prefer?
Ignored

Risk Reward Ratio

The risk/reward ratio, sometimes known as the "R/R ratio," compares the potential profit of a trade to its potential loss.
It is calculated by dividing the difference between the entry point of a trade and the stop-loss order (the risk) by the difference between the profit target and the entry point (the reward).

The risk-reward ratio measures how much your potential reward is, for every dollar you risk.
For example: If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, it means you're risking $1000 to potentially make $3000. If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:5, it means you're risking $1000 to potentially make $5000.
Do not get emotional when you gain or lose.
 
1
  • Post #9,517
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2022 1:22am Feb 13, 2022 1:22am
  •  Pat Chiko
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Newbie | 8,786 Posts
Quoting Mr.Burger
Disliked
{quote} first time joining FF, what I like about you is things like this, like poetry the words are beautiful in the way you see.. you are great at being able to distinguish newbie and oldbie traders, Pat, you are my first best friend on this site, my respect for your kindness to me and many others who are here, God bless you
Ignored

Hola Juan,

I'm the self appointed "Quartermaster" for this thread. When I was serving Mi6 they called me "Q"

If Arseny find out on this this self appointed designation, sure he will kick me out of this joint.......


PAT
Do not get emotional when you gain or lose.
 
3
  • Post #9,518
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2022 2:42am Feb 13, 2022 2:42am
  •  nagstn
  • Joined Mar 2021 | Status: Member | 249 Posts
Quoting Pat Chiko
Disliked
{quote} Risk Reward Ratio The risk/reward ratio, sometimes known as the "R/R ratio," compares the potential profit of a trade to its potential loss. It is calculated by dividing the difference between the entry point of a trade and the stop-loss order (the risk) by the difference between the profit target and the entry point (the reward). The risk-reward ratio measures how much your potential reward is, for every dollar you risk. For example: If you have a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, it means you're risking $1000 to potentially make $3000. If you...
Ignored
Thank you, Pat, I think you would go for, RRR, based on the potential setup on the pair you selected right?
1
 
  • Post #9,519
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2022 3:41am Feb 13, 2022 3:41am
  •  Pat Chiko
  • Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Newbie | 8,786 Posts
Quoting nagstn
Disliked
{quote} Thank you, Pat, I think you would go for, RRR, based on the potential setup on the pair you selected right?
Ignored

Hello nagstn,

Looking at it, and going around trying to map out GU, my take will be in these charts attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: gu 094.jpg
Size: 197 KB
Hopefully the GU bias plays out for ranging and the support will hold.
We enter at the place where it’s filled. It’s a PDArray. We Long if price is at a discount where FVG bottom filled.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: gu 095.jpg
Size: 219 KB

I would just like to add, having an accurate bias does not mean you will be guaranteed an entry or that you will even profit in the slightest.
But having an accurate bias means you have overcome a huge hurdle in your trading.

Bias leads to targets, which helps with POI selection and combining those with an entry pattern, you have a solid plan on how to get involved in the market and a reason to stay in a trade if it goes sideways for a while.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: gu 096.jpg
Size: 208 KB
POI context. Best entry at the discount of previous day price.
Thats forex trading in a nutshell.
If you study this day in day out, you will comfortably trade on your own.
Do not get emotional when you gain or lose.
 
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  • Post #9,520
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:31am Feb 13, 2022 6:31am
  •  Tronis
  • Joined Dec 2014 | Status: Member | 305 Posts
Hi everyone! This is how I see the GU chart at the moment. On Thursday ITs run up for a liquidity to destroy all the early sell order stops at around 1.364 level in order to fill their sell orders. When that was done, price started to decline sharply. On Friday was stop hunt at around LO for buy order SL from previous day and that’s why after that we saw price was rising almost all day but it never broke Thursday’s highs which could mean sellers are stronger now and we could see more GU downside move next week as long as the Thursday’s top is not breached. Price usually turns at liquidity areas and on Thursday that was exactly what it did and for that reason I think the probability to go down is higher at the moment. Next week I will be looking for short entries on rallies unless top is breached. That’s my plan.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: GBPUSDM30.png
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