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The Swamp

  • #94,981
  • Feb 1, 2022 2:35am Feb 1, 2022 2:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if it continues to close a 1h above 1229 it will probably go higher. Even stronger above 1240 close. see chart levels 1223 is second support. The trend is bearish, but today it was/is bullish. Adr is spent. The last day of the month.. Who wins? Also st pa above 1197 93 84 may be bullish. Bears need to close some hs below 1184 or it can bounce like 1147 did. Norm atm is 1184 or 1302 {image}
1184 is voided. I wouldn't look to short until after 1302 is reached. Replace 1184 with 1195
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  • #94,982
  • Feb 1, 2022 2:59am Feb 1, 2022 2:59am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i was thinking of it but don't know how much raise can happen if we really manage to stay above 1.12 next level is 1.128 for me 1.138 not really imposible than down. 1..18 area support for longs gonna buy there if it can stay probably if it goes up support in 1.12 long to 1.128/1.13 but imo it's just a stupid Move. but this is also what COT sugest and bets on ECB
imo this was the move.
it did't get all the way there but i think it;s done

meanwhile 1.124 is the new support for longs
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  • #94,983
  • Feb 1, 2022 3:00am Feb 1, 2022 3:00am
1231 is/should still be a R. The month has now closed below it. Once at 1302, bulls need to close above it. They may be unable. Once pa hits 1294 it too has a possible reverse there also. That would bring 1208 as a possible pivot instead of 1226. If 1208 would be the pivot. The high may lag reaching 1294. If this be the case the pivot now at 1195 may pull it below 1208. Making the new range lower. It may be below 1295. I still think 1302 will come. If wrong the top could be anywhere in this current area, Even 1269 since 1268 has R value.

I try to state where I may be wrong. For it to go to 1302. Then the pivot is 1211/12. And that's above 1208. I think bears want to prevent that number at 1211/12. Bears may stop 1302. By keeping pa at or below 1295. And that level to keep the pivot below 1208, can be anytime now below 1295.

The 2 norms I see is 1302 and 1402 for bulls. Since pa did close below 1331. I have to think the pull to 1195 is gaining some power atm. It is dynamic I will post if need be.
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  • #94,984
  • Feb 1, 2022 3:14am Feb 1, 2022 3:14am
these are real s/r, 1294/95 speculated. The real ones need some closes above for bulls. If bulls now cant close above the next R at 1267.8. pa will fall until it does. below is the closer past support at 1239.8. maybe some range between them until. 1240-1267
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  • #94,985
  • Feb 1, 2022 3:31am Feb 1, 2022 3:31am
Another thing. 1331 is like an old oak tree stump. it will be there forever probably. Unless we make a alltime new H or L. We just closed a month below 1331. The year and quarter above it. It could be strong as a R now. Maybe not. A month is small compared to a 1 year. St 1302 is an attractant and its a R. The month closed below 1302. So it may be a strong R. AS long as pa closes below it. As I type all timeframe's below a quarter have closed below it. So until there are some closes above 1302 its a R. It may end up being a big one backed up by 1331 and the year close at 1369. If would had been nice to get the year below 1331, it is what it is. I think more sideways because bears couldn't close below 1208 too.

Cliff notes. 1302 may be a large R later or already (close wise).
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  • #94,986
  • Feb 1, 2022 3:50am Feb 1, 2022 3:50am
[quote=gatorinla;13878453 St 1302 is an attractant and its a R. The month closed below 1302. So it may be a strong R. AS long as pa closes below it. As I type all timeframe's below a quarter have closed below it. So until there are some closes above 1302 its a R. It may end up being a big one backed up by 1331 and the year close at 1369. If would had been nice to get the year below 1331, it is what it is. I think more sideways because bears couldn't close below 1208 too. Cliff notes. 1302 may be a large R later or already (close wise).[/quote]

I think a range may form, It could be after 1302. Or is may be anytime now. Probably contained 13xx ish to 1120ish (give or take 35 pips). Until the bottom breaks on 1120
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  • #94,987
  • Feb 1, 2022 3:53am Feb 1, 2022 3:53am
When will it move? st an h close below 1260 may start to fall. Above 1268, it may rise. Above 1260 bulls pressure 1267.x. Something has to give.. h close in 4 min
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  • #94,988
  • Feb 1, 2022 4:01am Feb 1, 2022 4:01am
ADR 1264
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  • #94,989
  • Feb 1, 2022 4:15am Feb 1, 2022 4:15am
1258 is a 38.2% retrace.
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  • #94,990
  • Feb 1, 2022 4:50am Feb 1, 2022 4:50am
Quoting gatorinla
When will it move? st an h close below 1260 may start to fall. Above 1268, it may rise. Above 1260 bulls pressure 1267.x. Something has to give.. h close in 4 min {image}
h close below 1251.9 probably opens up 1239 or 1233/34. Since ADR is spent. The attraction to 1195 may take hold.
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  • #94,991
  • Feb 1, 2022 5:02am Feb 1, 2022 5:02am
bulls came back at the last minutes.. its still bullish until.. pressure on 1267/68 until.
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  • #94,992
  • Feb 1, 2022 6:11am Feb 1, 2022 6:11am
75% of the way to 1331.. 1302 in reach now. 1302 or 1200 next.. cancel 1195.

St besides the others posted earlier. 1h close below 1265 would likely be required to fall. Bulls still have the ball toward 1302 Norm. Or if bears grow a pair, 1200. One will be next. dynamic with 1200
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  • #94,993
  • Feb 1, 2022 6:20am Feb 1, 2022 6:20am
Quoting gatorinla
75% of the way to 1331.. 1302 in reach now. 1302 or 1200 next.. cancel 1195. St besides the others posted earlier. 1h close below 1265 would likely be required to fall. Bulls still have the ball toward 1302 Norm. Or if bears grow a pair, 1200. One will be next. dynamic with 1200 {image} {image}
Its not even slightly bearish st w/o a close below 1265 atm. Each h close above 1265 is pressure against the high.
The same for bulls concerning 1302. The next 24 pips may be volatile. I usually try to wait for 1302. I dont know since the month close is below 1331.

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  • #94,994
  • Feb 1, 2022 7:01am Feb 1, 2022 7:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its not even slightly bearish st w/o a close below 1265 atm. Each h close above 1265 is pressure against the high. The same for bulls concerning 1302. The next 24 pips may be volatile. I usually try to wait for 1302. I dont know since the month close is below 1331. {image}
it did close below 1265.. a calf is born2 see if it can do the same with 1249
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  • #94,995
  • Feb 1, 2022 7:07am Feb 1, 2022 7:07am
week average range reached at 1271
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  • #94,996
  • Feb 1, 2022 7:12am Feb 1, 2022 7:12am
as long as bulls cant close back above 1265, it should fall to test 1249.. and so forth,, see chart. The attraction to 1302 got slightly weaker. attraction to 1200 slightly stronger. mid between them 1251
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  • #94,997
  • Feb 1, 2022 7:31am Feb 1, 2022 7:31am
The 1/2 point between 1302 and 1200 is 1251. That next st support to beat at 1249. + or - 1249 close, looks to determine what happens after.
Week range is spent.

The larger trend is down. Bears want to close an h/day below 1200 (dynamic). That may be enough to retest 112x area.
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  • #94,998
  • Feb 1, 2022 7:37am Feb 1, 2022 7:37am
All you need to know about 1302. Maybe all you need to know for months.


.[quote=gatorinla;13878453 St 1302 is an attractant and its a R. The month closed below 1302. So it may be a strong R. AS long as pa closes below it. As I type all timeframe's below a quarter have closed below it. So until there are some closes above 1302 its a R. It may end up being a big one backed up by 1331 and the year close at 1369. If would had been nice to get the year below 1331, it is what it is. I think more sideways because bears couldn't close below 1208 too. Cliff notes. 1302 may be a large R later or already (close wise).[/quote]







If or when 1302 comes.. It may be topping. It came close, a fresh lower low weakens it. Getting back below 1200 may weaken it also.
Bulls got weaker when the month closed below 1331. Its not super bearish, since bears allowed the month to close above 1208.
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  • #94,999
  • Feb 1, 2022 7:44am Feb 1, 2022 7:44am
Quoting gatorinla;13878749[COLOR=Red
]as long as bulls cant close back above 1265, it should fall to test 1249.. and so forth,, see chart. The attraction to 1302 got slightly weaker. attraction to 1200 slightly stronger. mid between them 1251 {image}
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  • #95,000
  • Feb 1, 2022 8:02am Feb 1, 2022 8:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it did close below 1265.. a calf is born2 see if it can do the same with 1249 {image}
looks like it was a sacrificial calf. bulls took it back with a 4h close. 1249 never taken.
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