Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA) | Page 13 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Guppy Multiple Moving AverAge，GMMA 47 replies

Guppy Multiple Moving Avarages (GMMA) 50 replies

The Ultimate Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) Thread 73 replies

Guppy GMMA in 3D 3 replies

HELP! GMMA (Guppy's Multi-Moving Averages) Trading Mehod 3 replies

Attachments: Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)
Exit Attachments

Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)

  • #241
  • Jan 27, 2022 4:49am Jan 27, 2022 4:49am
For learning purposes I would like to ask for comment on this potential trade. This is the first pullback after a new trend formed.

For now without referring to other time-frames, just using what we see on the chart and based on the Walvekar method, would this be a good short trade when price closes below the lower 10MA (which would be somewhere near that blue line)?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy H4.png Size: 35 KB
  • #242
  • Edited 6:46am Jan 27, 2022 6:22am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting Spudfan
Has anyone done a study on the success rate of the Dr Walvekar method? (I think it deserves a proper title). .
thank you for your kind words sir. i am honoured especially coming form a senior person like you.
also i want to thank you for giving life to a dead thread, at least i can express my thoughts, strategy and rules.

" 30 wins, 6 losses and 2 B/E. Average 10/2/1 per pair."
your analysis is very accurate. though i dont keep ajournal, i am trading a live account and i can guess my success rate from my available balance.

guppy mma is a trend trading method. but the entry and exits are not very well defined by him in his published literature. i literally tried many indicators, candle patterns, divergences , flags and what not. looking back at charts and making a strategy is very easy..... in live charts it is not so.i found that the 10 ema chanel is the best way for me .

"we are going to make mistakes and do stupid things." i have also done too many as every one of us. only i used to take one lot one trade at a time to concentrate on how the market works. all of us including me want to get is at the lowest and book profit at the highest... i realised it is not possible.
thats the reason i posted my live trades and rules and the follow up also.

oohoo asked " How many trades a week or a month do you find this way?"
one profitable trade at a time is sufficient mate
when you are confident, increase the number of lots or add to existing positions or trail stoploss so you get max profit.

lastly ..... guppy gmma is a trend trading system. so rather than trying to get in at lowest and book profit at the highest....let the trend get established before you enter. hence we trade the first or second pullback. trail SL once the trade goes in your direction. any time you feel insecure about your entry (and always your inner sense is right), book loss and exit. use fibo extensions or any other method to book profits ( and run away with profit in your pocket )

"Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan"


please ignore my spelling mistakes and grammer. english is not my native language
  • #243
  • Jan 27, 2022 10:35am Jan 27, 2022 10:35am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} thank you for your kind words sir. i am honoured especially coming form a senior person like you. also i want to thank you for giving life to a dead thread, at least i can express my thoughts, strategy and rules. " 30 wins, 6 losses and 2 B/E. Average 10/2/1 per pair." your analysis is very accurate. though i dont keep ajournal, i am trading a live account and i can guess my success rate from my available balance. guppy mma is a trend trading method. but the entry and exits are not very well defined by him in his published literature....
What a useful piece this is! I have started collecting all of your writing together because I can't keep track of it spread across several pages and I wanted it all in one place as a reference. Hopefully we can work together on it and then post it here.

Thank you for your kind words. I might be senior in age but otherwise just the same as anyone else. I'm also happy to have got this thread going again and especially for your willing contributions. Combining Daryl Guppy's trend trading guidelines with your rules and approach just pulls it all together into a single useful package. I'm now feeling more optimistic about trading than I have for a while. Thank you.
  • #244
  • Jan 29, 2022 5:54am Jan 29, 2022 5:54am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I have just done a rough-and-ready count of wins and losses on the four-hourly TF from 1 Jan last year to now across three pairs chosen randomly - AUDCAD, EURGBP and GBPJPY. The totals across these three (and very similar to each other) was 30 wins, 6 losses and 2 B/E. Average 10/2/1 per pair. Two observations from this are (1) the obvious, that this is a high probability system and (2) to maximise returns it would be necessary to find ways of letting trades run - there are some big wins to be had, we just need to let them happen.
The above was "rough-and-ready". With more time available I went back and reviewed the AUDCAD pair from 1 January to 31 December last year using the F12 function key (on a PC) to give a candle-by-candle viewing, thereby keeping the future hidden off-screen. It's the closest to live trading I can get.

I also used the following personal adaptations of the Walvekar method to suit my own style and experience:

 

  1. Trade only the first pullback and breakout pattern (this is more to do with the testing than my personal preferences. It would be interesting to repeat the exercise but trading the first and second pullback/breakouts).
  2. If price makes an explosive and large break beyond the 10 EMA channel (i.e. on the the entry candle) and becomes "stretched" (overbought/sold) I do not enter as price is very likely to bounce back or even swing onto the other side of the LT EMAs.
  3. If the EMAs are close together and going sideways I also avoid entering a trade.
  4. Move to B/E at 50 pips (this helps with backtesting to keep things consistent).
  5. Trail the stop using the next lower TF's swing points. In my case that's H1 and I trail on the second swing point back. One could also use Guppy's countback method - it ends up being similar to this.

My results for those 12 months are:

8 wins (438 pips), 3 losses (50 pips), 1 B/E. Total gain was 388 pips. The largest trade was 102 pips, so for this pair setting a fixed target of around 150 pips might capture more of the gains than a trailing stop can, but on other pairs it might cut short an enormous trade.

  • #245
  • Jan 29, 2022 7:01am Jan 29, 2022 7:01am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} The above was "rough-and-ready". With more time available I went back and reviewed the AUDCAD pair from 1 January to 31 December last year using the F12 function key (on a PC) to give a candle-by-candle viewing, thereby keeping the future hidden off-screen. It's the closest to live trading I can get. I also used the following personal adaptations of the Walvekar method to suit my own style and experience: Trade only the first pullback and breakout pattern (this is more to do with the testing than my personal preferences. It would be interesting...
Interesting. If I backtest the second pullback and breakout I get the following results:

3 wins (179 pips), 2 losses (92 pips), 2 B/E. With that 3/2/2 result the honours are almost even. Total gain was 87 pips. Not worth spending much energy and time on when there are another 27 major pair demanding attention. This is just AUDCAD, H4, of course. It doesn't mean other pairs are not going to work on the second pullback/breakout.
  • #246
  • Edited 4:41am Jan 31, 2022 4:28am | Edited 4:41am
I have backtested 5 different currency pairs as described above. They experienced around 12-15 potentially usable trend changes in the year. Not all of those met the requirements and so the number of tradeable trends was around 8 per pair for the year of 2021, or if using 20 pairs, it's 160 tradeable new trends, with two pullback/breakout patterns on offer each time. The first pullback/breakout pattern performed better than the second one most of the time, but the second one did well enough to make it worth trading (the AUDCAD example above must be a low-performer). Most of the trades taken were successful, some, due to the trend-following technique I used, were monsters! The top three trades were 407 pips, 370 pips and 263 pips, respectively.

So, having done all of that and assuming things continue this way in 2022, this seems to be a good strategy to follow. It works well for me because it is rules-based.

I should mention that CADCHF went through 19 potentially usable trend changes (it was choppy a lot of the time), of which only 8 met the requirements. It was a frustrating pair to backtest - all over the place. If that's how it's going to be into the future I will ignore it.
  • #247
  • Jan 31, 2022 5:43am Jan 31, 2022 5:43am
Quoting Spudfan
I have backtested 5 different currency pairs as described above.
wow, thats a lot of painstaking work sir.

"Most of the trades taken were successful, some, due to the trend-following technique I used, were monsters! "
i am happy that your analysis shows very good results.

" this seems to be a good strategy to follow. It works well for me because it is rules-based."
and the rules are simple and easy to follow i hope

thanks again
  • #248
  • Jan 31, 2022 10:50am Jan 31, 2022 10:50am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} wow, thats a lot of painstaking work sir. "Most of the trades taken were successful, some, due to the trend-following technique I used, were monsters! " i am happy that your analysis shows very good results. " this seems to be a good strategy to follow. It works well for me because it is rules-based." and the rules are simple and easy to follow i hope thanks again
Thank you.

Now that I have satisfied myself that it is a winning strategy, I need to find out if it works with live trades. There is always a catch somewhere!
  • #249
  • Jan 31, 2022 12:11pm Jan 31, 2022 12:11pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Thank you. Now that I have satisfied myself that it is a winning strategy, I need to find out if it works with live trades. There is always a catch somewhere!

today dow live chart. though i cant trade it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow.png Size: 117 KB
entry candle close just above 10 chanel. all other criteria fulfilled.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow targets.png Size: 108 KB
fibo targets
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow 100 support.png Size: 106 KB
T1 hit to the pip.... next candle 100 support to the pip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow to t2.png Size: 26 KB

price reaching T2. notice that price has broken previous resistance with candle close above it.... so T3 is easily possible.

these are H1 charts and todays live market
  • #250
  • Jan 31, 2022 12:28pm Jan 31, 2022 12:28pm
T2 acheived
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow t2.png Size: 12 KB
  • #251
  • Jan 31, 2022 6:00pm Jan 31, 2022 6:00pm
T3 also acheived easily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow t3.png Size: 18 KB

now as the price action is too far from LT group and ema chanel, expect a pullback inside ema chanel upto 50 % fib level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow consolidation.png Size: 16 KB
  • #252
  • Feb 1, 2022 3:47am Feb 1, 2022 3:47am
Quoting walvekarraje
T3 also acheived easily {image} now as the price action is too far from LT group and ema chanel, expect a pullback inside ema chanel upto 50 % fib level.{image}
Well done! You seem to pump out similar successful trades almost daily.

I'm seeing that your approach is short-term (or even intra-day?), whereas what I did for my backtesting is a longer-term approach. Yours is based on H1 and has nearby targets set using the fibo tool in a particular way. Mine is based on H4 and attempts to exploit the trend-following nature of the GMMAs by trailing a stop as far as it will go.

Have I understood this correctly?

I like this variety (assuming the longer-term one works as well as the backtesting suggested it does) because traders are all different and some might prefer one while others might prefer the other. I'm now pursuing the longer-term approach live to see what I can do with it.
  • #253
  • Feb 1, 2022 4:58am Feb 1, 2022 4:58am
Here's a possible trade coming up on CADJPY H4. A new trend formed, then pulled back into a messy consolidation and now it might break out. It's following the familiar broad pattern so far but I don't feel comfortable with that messy bit. Comments anyone?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy h4.png Size: 37 KB
  • #254
  • Feb 1, 2022 8:08pm Feb 1, 2022 8:08pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Well done! You seem to pump out similar successful trades almost daily. I'm seeing that your approach is short-term (or even intra-day?),
yes. you are partly right . GMMA helps me to identify the trend and my entry. i trade only one instrument at a time. but i use a combination of futures and options to trade it. for a long trade i will buy two lots of future and sell one put option. ( strike price is T 2 of fibo ). book future lots at T1 and T2 and let the option trade run till the end. when price reaches T2 my option becomes out of the money and all out of the money options expire worthless. though the profit in option selling is limited, it becomes a stress free trade. trend is your best friend and time is your second best

also in post 163 (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13843131) i have also described how i use the same system to build portfolio.

this is like a quiver full of arrows. decide yourself which arrow to use and when
  • #255
  • Feb 2, 2022 8:32am Feb 2, 2022 8:32am
Quoting walvekarraje
fib to set targets {image} now the fib is applied from the low of breakout/ entry candle (candle closing below ema chanel) to the previous swing high. note that target 1 is above the previous support and target 2 is below it. if the trend is strong the probablity of hitting targets is fairly high. finally tomorrow after market open if price retraces above 50% and/or my BE stoploss is hit.... i will be out of the trade. if not i will wait for my targets.
Do I get it right that your TP1 has a RR ratio below 1?
  • #256
  • Feb 2, 2022 9:12am Feb 2, 2022 9:12am
Quoting Spudfan
Here's a possible trade coming up on CADJPY H4. A new trend formed, then pulled back into a messy consolidation and now it might break out. It's following the familiar broad pattern so far but I don't feel comfortable with that messy bit. Comments anyone? {image}
Finally, we have a breakout.

I'm going to trail the stop down the H1 swing highs to see how far I can get (using the swing high that is one before the current one to avoid being stopped out too soon). It's not a system that collects maximum returns for each trade, but from my backtesting, when you get a big one it more than makes up for having a bunch of smaller ones along the way. The big thing is to avoid losses as much as possible. Part of that is to enter when there is a high probability of a successful trade (which the Walvekar method seems to do) and the other is to move to B/E after around 1R.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy h4.png Size: 35 KB
  • #257
  • Feb 2, 2022 10:39am Feb 2, 2022 10:39am
Quoting oohoo
{quote} Do I get it right that your TP1 has a RR ratio below 1?
a one line question requires a detailed answer.

1) we are trading a system with some basic fixed rules. rules can be followed, bent or broken....... but with some logic.
2) in any strong trend the entry candle low/high is NEVER broken. but we have been made to think that when we enter a trade the previous swing high or low is our stoploss. and then you calculate risk reward ratio according to your stoploss. just have a look at the post previous to the one you quoted. if price moves beyond 50% the trend is not strong , move your SL to ema 10 high. you may get stopped out with minimal loss. but you will always get better opportunites.
3) i use TP1 to move my SL to BE. T2 I always book profit for 1 lot.
4) after TP2, as long as candles are closing outside 10 ema chanel, remain in the trade.... when candle closes inside the chanel, move SL to high/ low of that candle.
5) lastly when candle closes and rsi 6 is below 20/above 80.... book profit and get out of the trade.
  • #258
  • Feb 2, 2022 10:46am Feb 2, 2022 10:46am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} a one line question requires a detailed answer. 1) we are trading a system with some basic fixed rules. rules can be followed, bent or broken....... but with some logic. 2) in any strong trend the entry candle low/high is NEVER broken. but we have been made to think that when we enter a trade the previous swing high or low is our stoploss. and then you calculate risk reward ratio according to your stoploss. just have a look at the post previous to the one you quoted. if price moves beyond 50% the trend is not strong , move your SL to ema...
Another nugget. This will help me put together the section in walvekarraje's collected writings on managing the trade.
  • #259
  • Feb 2, 2022 10:50am Feb 2, 2022 10:50am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Another nugget. This will help me put together the section in walvekarraje's collected writings on managing the trade.

trade is not RR. it is keeping losses to minimum and making max profits
  • #260
  • Feb 2, 2022 11:03am Feb 2, 2022 11:03am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} a one line question requires a detailed answer. 1) we are trading a system with some basic fixed rules. rules can be followed, bent or broken....... but with some logic. 2) in any strong trend the entry candle low/high is NEVER broken. but we have been made to think that when we enter a trade the previous swing high or low is our stoploss. and then you calculate risk reward ratio according to your stoploss. just have a look at the post previous to the one you quoted. if price moves beyond 50% the trend is not strong , move your SL to ema...
Right. Just wanted to understand if I got you right in terms of entry and TPs.
0 traders viewing now