Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA) | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Guppy Multiple Moving AverAge，GMMA 47 replies

Guppy Multiple Moving Avarages (GMMA) 50 replies

The Ultimate Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) Thread 73 replies

Guppy GMMA in 3D 3 replies

HELP! GMMA (Guppy's Multi-Moving Averages) Trading Mehod 3 replies

Attachments: Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)
Exit Attachments

Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)

  • #221
  • Jan 24, 2022 11:49am Jan 24, 2022 11:49am
Quoting Alex84054
GBPUSD H4 It looks like a change in trend {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 45 KB

would have been a fantastic profitable trade

note our entry candle is the first candle to close below chanel
all criteria fulfilled on same candle
still all candles are closing below chanel
rsi 6 still < rsi 12

very strong downtrend
  • #222
  • Jan 24, 2022 1:14pm Jan 24, 2022 1:14pm
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} {image} would have been a fantastic profitable trade note our entry candle is the first candle to close below chanel all criteria fulfilled on same candle still all candles are closing below chanel rsi 6 still < rsi 12 very strong downtrend
I'm really liking this strategy. And there's (almost) no guesswork - all rules-based.
  • #223
  • Jan 24, 2022 9:53pm Jan 24, 2022 9:53pm
Quoting walvekarraje
fib to set targets {image} now the fib is applied from the low of breakout/ entry candle (candle closing below ema chanel) to the previous swing high. note that target 1 is above the previous support and target 2 is below it. if the trend is strong the probablity of hitting targets is fairly high. finally tomorrow after market open if price retraces above 50% and/or my BE stoploss is hit.... i will be out of the trade. if not i will wait for my targets.
T 2 hit in a couple of min after market open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hul 4.png Size: 27 KB
  • #224
  • Jan 24, 2022 10:23pm Jan 24, 2022 10:23pm
Quoting Spudfan
Hey Rajesh, you did say that price sometimes reacts precisely to fibo levels. Well, how's this? Even though it seems such a random thing, it reacted almost exactly. Like magic. I was out when price reached T1, and you can see what happened.
hi spudfan
the magic repets.
look at the chart 30 min after market open. if i would not have booked profit at T 2, my stoploss at BE would have been hit, loosing all my profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HUL 5.png Size: 15 KB

this is why i prefer to take profits at fib levels.
  • #225
  • Jan 25, 2022 12:40am Jan 25, 2022 12:40am
Second life for yesterday's EURUSD H4 trade (I left it running, trusting the LT GMMAs). The fibos use today's breakout candle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h4.png Size: 33 KB
  • #226
  • Jan 25, 2022 3:33am Jan 25, 2022 3:33am
Quoting Spudfan
Second life for yesterday's EURUSD H4 trade (I left it running, trusting the LT GMMAs). The fibos use today's breakout candle. {image}
As there is a lot of support just below I placed my TP at the T1 level in order to close 100% of the trade. It was hit a short while ago.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h005.png Size: 13 KB
  • #227
  • Edited 6:44am Jan 25, 2022 4:12am | Edited 6:44am
Rajesh I have a question. In this chart of AUDJPY H4 we have a new trend, two pullbacks and breakouts shown with vertical grey lines. If price now drops from here we might get another breakout candle, but price will not have gone back into the LT GMMAs. In such a case would you trade the breakout candle or just walk away? How important is that revisiting into the LT GMMAs?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy h4.png Size: 38 KB
  • #228
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:39am Jan 25, 2022 9:39am
Quoting Spudfan
Rajesh I have a question. In this chart of AUDJPY H4 we have a new trend, two pullbacks and breakouts shown with vertical grey lines. If price now drops from here we might get another breakout candle, but price will not have gone back into the LT GMMAs. In such a case would you trade the breakout candle or just walk away? How important is that revisiting into the LT GMMAs? {image}
the best trades are when the price pulls back into the LT group and the first candle to close outside the 10 ema chanel.
otherwise the pullback should be MORE than 50% from previons swing high and low.
rest you dont trade.

this is also the reason i prefer to book profits at T 2..... because usually after that there is either consolidation or pullback .
a very strong trend is the one where all the candles are closing outside the 10 ema chanel. that is where you can decide to stay in the trend till price closes inside the chanel. but here you should trail stoploss .... first to BE... next to T 1 and then to T 2. as in my last post sometimes pullback is so strong that it can take away your profits and sometimes you end up in a loss.
  • #229
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:40am Jan 25, 2022 10:40am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} the best trades are when the price pulls back into the LT group and the first candle to close outside the 10 ema chanel. otherwise the pullback should be MORE than 50% from previons swing high and low. rest you dont trade. this is also the reason i prefer to book profits at T 2..... because usually after that there is either consolidation or pullback . a very strong trend is the one where all the candles are closing outside the 10 ema chanel. that is where you can decide to stay in the trend till price closes inside the chanel. but here...
Thank you, again! I've noticed that in most cases, the 50% level is very close to the LT GMMAs anyway, so we are covered either way. The chart below is one such example.

Here's a potential trade coming up - EURGBP H4.

A new uptrend has been formed. If price stops the current pullback where it is now and continues the uptrend then there will be a breakout, probably tomorrow, the RSIs will meet the requirements and the trade could be on. Are there any reasons anyone can see not to take it (assuming all the conditions are met)?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h4.png Size: 35 KB
  • #230
  • Jan 25, 2022 12:42pm Jan 25, 2022 12:42pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Thank you, again! I've noticed that in most cases, the 50% level is very close to the LT GMMAs anyway, so we are covered either way. The chart below is one such example. Here's a potential trade coming up - EURGBP H4. A new uptrend has been formed. If price stops the current pullback where it is now and continues the uptrend then there will be a breakout, probably tomorrow, the RSIs will meet the requirements and the trade could be on. Are there any reasons anyone can see not to take it (assuming all the conditions are met)? {image}
Only the fact that on higher TFs it is mostly a short. Could be tricky.
  • #231
  • Jan 25, 2022 8:54pm Jan 25, 2022 8:54pm
if the trend is to change or reverse it has to do so in the lower timeframes first. here we are trading the time frame and not the instrument. it is good if trade is in direction of higher time frame, but if all conditions are met i dont hesitate to pull the trigger. after that it is only money management. keeping losses to minimum is more important after entering a trade. a strategy with well defined set of rules / guidelines for entry, stoploss, trail and profit targets is what is required.

Plan the trade and then trade the plan
  • #232
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:09pm Jan 25, 2022 9:09pm
i would like to add volume to my chart. that is a very important parameter in change of trend. unfortunately MT4 shows tick volume and not the actual volume. i sometimes refer to my broker data and chart. it helps
  • #233
  • Jan 25, 2022 11:37pm Jan 25, 2022 11:37pm
Quoting oohoo
{quote} Only the fact that on higher TFs it is mostly a short. Could be tricky.
That's what I noticed too, which is why I asked that question. And here's our answer ...

Quoting walvekarraje
if the trend is to change or reverse it has to do so in the lower timeframes first. here we are trading the time frame and not the instrument. it is good if trade is in direction of higher time frame, but if all conditions are met i dont hesitate to pull the trigger. after that it is only money management. keeping losses to minimum is more important after entering a trade. a strategy with well defined set of rules / guidelines for entry, stoploss, trail and profit targets is what is required. Plan the trade and then trade the plan
There's still a way to go on that pair - first the pullback, then the breakout and a lot can change in that time. Wait and see. Trust the system.
  • #234
  • Jan 26, 2022 10:04am Jan 26, 2022 10:04am
Has anyone done a study on the success rate of the Dr Walvekar method? (I think it deserves a proper title). I suspect it has a pretty high probability of success, particularly if one counts just the first pullback and breakout after the trend change.
  • #235
  • Jan 26, 2022 11:21am Jan 26, 2022 11:21am
Quoting Spudfan
Has anyone done a study on the success rate of the Dr Walvekar method? (I think it deserves a proper title). I suspect it has a pretty high probability of success, particularly if one counts just the first pullback and breakout after the trend change.
I have just done a rough-and-ready count of wins and losses on the four-hourly TF from 1 Jan last year to now across three pairs chosen randomly - AUDCAD, EURGBP and GBPJPY. The totals across these three (and very similar to each other) was 30 wins, 6 losses and 2 B/E. Average 10/2/1 per pair.

Two observations from this are (1) the obvious, that this is a high probability system and (2) to maximise returns it would be necessary to find ways of letting trades run - there are some big wins to be had, we just need to let them happen.
  • #236
  • Jan 26, 2022 1:03pm Jan 26, 2022 1:03pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I have just done a rough-and-ready count of wins and losses on the four-hourly TF from 1 Jan last year to now across three pairs chosen randomly - AUDCAD, EURGBP and GBPJPY. The totals across these three (and very similar to each other) was 30 wins, 6 losses and 2 B/E. Average 10/2/1 per pair. Two observations from this are (1) the obvious, that this is a high probability system and (2) to maximise returns it would be necessary to find ways of letting trades run - there are some big wins to be had, we just need to let them happen.
38 trades in 12+ months - that's 13 per pair a year. Once a month on average. What capital does one need to at least sustain a living from it?
If you're away from PC when you need to place a trade, one needs to wait another month.
  • #237
  • Jan 26, 2022 1:15pm Jan 26, 2022 1:15pm
Quoting oohoo
{quote} 38 trades in 12+ months - that's 13 per pair a year. Once a month on average. What capital does one need to at least sustain a living from it? If you're away from PC when you need to place a trade, one needs to wait another month.
True, but remember I was counting only the first pullback/breakout pattern in each new trend. Walvekarraje suggests two of them before the probabilities drop off. Also, how many pairs do you have open? If you pair off all the majors it's 28, but let's say we have 20. 20 x 13 = 260. Or more if you can pick up the second pullback/breakout (and a few more losses, I guess). In a normal trading year one will have about 200 to 230 trading days. So with those numbers it's more than 1 trade a day.

All of that is wishful thinking, of course, because we are going to make mistakes and do stupid things. We'll also miss trades that go past while we are out or sleeping or at work. But it gives an idea of what is possible.
  • #238
  • Jan 27, 2022 1:17am Jan 27, 2022 1:17am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote}All of that is wishful thinking, of course, because we are going to make mistakes and do stupid things. We'll also miss trades that go past while we are out or sleeping or at work. But it gives an idea of what is possible.
And that's what happened. A whole host of potential trades came through during my sleeping time and this morning only a few of them are still suitable to trade. So we can add another reason to the above list of why we will miss trades - they might all come through in a rush and we can't take them all, even if we are awake.

I placed this AUDJPY trade this morning. It's the second take at the pullback/breakthrough pattern since the new trend formed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy h4.png Size: 31 KB
  • #239
  • Jan 27, 2022 1:37am Jan 27, 2022 1:37am
Right. What I said above was not to disparage the good strategy, that you guys are discussing. It's just that making trading compatible with life is yet another challenge.
  • #240
  • Jan 27, 2022 1:48am Jan 27, 2022 1:48am
Quoting oohoo
Right. What I said above was not to disparage the good strategy, that you guys are discussing. It's just that making trading compatible with life is yet another challenge.
Yes, day jobs are a real problem :-) Thanks for sharpening that discussion. All good.
1 trader viewing now