would have been a fantastic profitable trade
note our entry candle is the first candle to close below chanel
all criteria fulfilled on same candle
still all candles are closing below chanel
rsi 6 still < rsi 12
very strong downtrend
1
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Disliked{quote} {image} would have been a fantastic profitable trade note our entry candle is the first candle to close below chanel all criteria fulfilled on same candle still all candles are closing below chanel rsi 6 still < rsi 12 very strong downtrendIgnored
Dislikedfib to set targets {image} now the fib is applied from the low of breakout/ entry candle (candle closing below ema chanel) to the previous swing high. note that target 1 is above the previous support and target 2 is below it. if the trend is strong the probablity of hitting targets is fairly high. finally tomorrow after market open if price retraces above 50% and/or my BE stoploss is hit.... i will be out of the trade. if not i will wait for my targets.Ignored
DislikedHey Rajesh, you did say that price sometimes reacts precisely to fibo levels. Well, how's this? Even though it seems such a random thing, it reacted almost exactly. Like magic. I was out when price reached T1, and you can see what happened.Ignored
DislikedRajesh I have a question. In this chart of AUDJPY H4 we have a new trend, two pullbacks and breakouts shown with vertical grey lines. If price now drops from here we might get another breakout candle, but price will not have gone back into the LT GMMAs. In such a case would you trade the breakout candle or just walk away? How important is that revisiting into the LT GMMAs? {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} the best trades are when the price pulls back into the LT group and the first candle to close outside the 10 ema chanel. otherwise the pullback should be MORE than 50% from previons swing high and low. rest you dont trade. this is also the reason i prefer to book profits at T 2..... because usually after that there is either consolidation or pullback . a very strong trend is the one where all the candles are closing outside the 10 ema chanel. that is where you can decide to stay in the trend till price closes inside the chanel. but here...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thank you, again! I've noticed that in most cases, the 50% level is very close to the LT GMMAs anyway, so we are covered either way. The chart below is one such example. Here's a potential trade coming up - EURGBP H4. A new uptrend has been formed. If price stops the current pullback where it is now and continues the uptrend then there will be a breakout, probably tomorrow, the RSIs will meet the requirements and the trade could be on. Are there any reasons anyone can see not to take it (assuming all the conditions are met)? {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Only the fact that on higher TFs it is mostly a short. Could be tricky.Ignored
Dislikedif the trend is to change or reverse it has to do so in the lower timeframes first. here we are trading the time frame and not the instrument. it is good if trade is in direction of higher time frame, but if all conditions are met i dont hesitate to pull the trigger. after that it is only money management. keeping losses to minimum is more important after entering a trade. a strategy with well defined set of rules / guidelines for entry, stoploss, trail and profit targets is what is required. Plan the trade and then trade the planIgnored
DislikedHas anyone done a study on the success rate of the Dr Walvekar method? (I think it deserves a proper title). I suspect it has a pretty high probability of success, particularly if one counts just the first pullback and breakout after the trend change.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I have just done a rough-and-ready count of wins and losses on the four-hourly TF from 1 Jan last year to now across three pairs chosen randomly - AUDCAD, EURGBP and GBPJPY. The totals across these three (and very similar to each other) was 30 wins, 6 losses and 2 B/E. Average 10/2/1 per pair. Two observations from this are (1) the obvious, that this is a high probability system and (2) to maximise returns it would be necessary to find ways of letting trades run - there are some big wins to be had, we just need to let them happen.Ignored
Disliked{quote} 38 trades in 12+ months - that's 13 per pair a year. Once a month on average. What capital does one need to at least sustain a living from it? If you're away from PC when you need to place a trade, one needs to wait another month.Ignored
Disliked{quote}All of that is wishful thinking, of course, because we are going to make mistakes and do stupid things. We'll also miss trades that go past while we are out or sleeping or at work. But it gives an idea of what is possible.Ignored