AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.91
The greenback intra-day firm break of 113.97 (Thur) on active yen buying due to risk-off trade suggests recovery from last Fri's 113.49 has possibly ended at 115.05 Tue and re-test of 113.49 would be forthcoming next, break would extend decline from Jan's 5-year high at 116.34 towards 113.15, then 112.90/95.

On the upside, only a daily close above 114.22 signals a temporary bottom is in place and stronger retracement to 114.54/55 would be seen next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan nationwide CPI.
U.K. Gkf consumer confidence, retail sales, EU consumer confidence, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index, retail sales and leading index change.

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AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1339
Although euro's rebound after extending recent decline from Jan's 1.1482 top to an 8-day bottom at 1.1302 in Asia suggests temporary low is made, as 1.1359 (NY) had capped recovery in New York, consolidation with downside bias remains and below 1.1302 would extend said fall towards 1.1302, then later 1.1273.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1386 risks stronger retracement of said fall towards 1.1405.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to german n EU's Markit mfg n services PMIs, if actual readings come in weaker than forecast, then euro would come under renewed selling pressure.

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AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.69
Although the greenback's selloff to 113.61 in New York last Fri signals correction from Jan's 113.49 bottom has possibly ended at 115.05 last Tue, subsequent sideways swings then intra-day rebound would yield consolidation and below 113.49 would extend decline from Jan's near 5-year peak at 116.34 towards 113.15 later.

On the upside, a daily close above 114.54 would risk stronger retracement towards 115.00.

Data to be released today :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. national activity index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1323
Despite euro's brief break below last Fr's 1.1302 low to a near 2-week bottom at 1.1291 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound on broad-based retreat in usd due to strong recovery in U.S. stocks suggests a temporary bottom is made there and retracement towards 1.1359 may be seen before recent decline from Jan's 7-week 1.1482 peak heads towards 1.1273 later.

On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.1359 may risk stronger gain twd 1.1386.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, CPI.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends orders.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

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AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

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Update Time: 25 Jan2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.93
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 1-month bottom at 113.48 in New York Mon, subsequent rebound to 113.99 in tandem with US yields n U.S. stocks, then intra-day break there to 114.09 in Australia suggests recent decline from Jan's near 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temporary bottom there and retracement to 114.50/55 is likely before another fall.

On the downside, a daily close below 113.66 would yield further weakness towards 113.15 but 113.00 should hold.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to consumer confidence at 15:00GMT. The Fed starts its 2-day monetary policy today but market only anticipates a rate hike at Mar FOMC meeting.

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AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jan 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1304
Although euro's break of previous Jan's 1.1273 low to 1.1264 Tue suggests correction from 2021 bottom at 1.1187 (Nov) has ended at 1.1482 in mid-Jan, subsequent short-covering rebound in tandem with U.S. stocks would bring consolidation before another fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1223.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1368 aborts recent bearish outlook and risks stronger gain to 1.1395/00.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, new home sales, Fed interest rate decision and Canada BOC interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jan2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.09
Although the greenback's rebound from Mon's 1-month bottom at 113.48 to as high as 114.15 in New York Tue suggests recent decline from Jan's near 5-year peak at 116.34 has made a temporary low there, subsequent retreat in tandem with US stocks signals consolidation with downside bias remains and re-test of said support is seen but loss of momentum should keep price abv 113.15.

On the upside, only a daily close above 114.20/25 would risk stronger retracement to 114.54/55.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, new home sales, Fed interest rate decision and Canada BOC interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jan 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1235
Euro's selloff in post-FOMC New York from 1.1300 to a fresh 1-month bottom at 1.1236 due to broad-based usd's strength on Fed Powell's hawkish comments suggests further weakness would be seen, however, below 2021 bottom at 1.1187 (Nov) needed to retain bearishness for further decline towards projected downside target at 1.1222 later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1310 (Wed high) signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1334/36 before down.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac leading index, export prices, imports prices.
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, Italy industrial sales.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing and Canada average weekly earnings.

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AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jan2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.86
Despite the greenback's resumption of recent decline from Jan's near 5-year 116.34 peak to Mon's 1-month bottom at 113.47, subsequent rally to as high as 114.69 in post-FOMC New York Wed on Fed Powell's hawkish comments, then intra-day break there suggests price would head towards 115.05 but above needed for further gain to 115.25/35.

On the downside, only a daily close below 114.15 would signal said recovery over and risk weakness to 113.79/84 tomorrow.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to weekly jobless claims n continued jobless claims as well as Q4 GDP n Q4 PCE.

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AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1144
Euro's selloff and firm break below 2021 low at 1.1187 (Nov, now res) to a 20-month bottom at 1.1133 in New York Thursday on follow-through usd's buying after Fed Powell's hawkish comments suggests medium-term downtrend has resumed would pressure price towards 1.1036 next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1187 signals a temporary trough is in place and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1231/36 on Mon.

Ahead of release of key U.S. PCE price index, the uro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.62
Despite the greenback's resumption of recent decline from January's near 5-year 116.34 peak to Mon's 1-month bottom at 113.48, subsequent rally to as high as 115.48 yesterday, then intra-day break there suggests the correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 115.84/90, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 116.00/05 today and bring retreat.

On the downside, only a daily close below 114.15 would signal said recovery over and risk weakness to 113.79/84 tomorrow.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia PPI.
France consumer spending, GDP, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, German import prices, GDP, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada budget balance on Friday.

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AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jan 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1146
Despite euro's short-covering rebound from Friday's 20-month bottom at 1.1122 (Europe) to 1.1173 in New York, as long as 1.1187 (2021 low, now res) holds, downside bias remains for recent downtrend to head towards 1.1036 later this week.

On the upside, only daily close above 1.1187 signals temporary bottom is made, risks stronger gain to 1.1220/30.

Data to be released today:
Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, China Market Holiday.
Italy GDP, EU GDP, Germany CPI.
Canada producer prices, U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jan2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.43
Thu's rally above last week's 115.05 top (now sup) to 115.48 (Thur), then to 115.68 Fri suggests pull- back from Jan's near 5-year peak at 116.34 has ended at last Mon's 113.48 trough n intra-day retreat would bring consolidation before heading towards 116.34 'later'.

Trade from long side for 115.90 and only daily close below 115.05 risks stronger retrace to 114.68/78 .

Data to be released today:
Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, China Market Holiday.
Italy GDP, EU GDP, Germany CPI.
Canada producer prices, U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1450
Euro's impressive rally on Thursday from 1.1268 to as high as 1.1451 after hawkish comments by ECB's Lagarde in post-ECB presser suggests recent upmove from Jan's 20-month bottom at 1.1122 remains in force and would head to 1.1482, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1514.

On the downside, only below 1.1368 confirms 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1330 but 1.1268 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand building permits, China Market Holiday.
Germany industrial orders, France non-farm payrolls, U.K. Market construction PMI, EU retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.09
Despite dollar's fall from last Friday's 2-1/2 week peak at 115.68 to 114.17 on Wednesday, yesterday's cross-inspired rally suggests the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there ahead of today's US jobs report release and risk has increased for a correction.

On the downside, only below 114.50/55 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and pressure price back down to 114.17 early next week.

T.F.I.F., market is awaiting release of U.S. jobs report but this may turn out to a non event as markets are well-prepared for an Omicron-driven drop in January payrolls after a surprise negative reading in ADP private payrolls (-301k actual vs +207K forecast) on Wed. In addution, several Fed officials in recent days have signalled comfort with the underlying direction of U.S. economy and focus is inflation, so next Thur's release of Jan's CPI will grab more attention, however, beware of better-than-expected NFP which may trigger pre-weekend short covering in the greenback.

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AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Feb 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1445
Despite euro's resumption of recent upmove from Jan's fresh 20-month trough at 1.1122 to an 11-week high of 1.1483 in Europe last Friday, subsequent fall to 1.1412 after robust US NFP signals a temporary top is in place and below 1.1412 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1368 after range trading.

On the upside, only above 1.1483 may risk one more rise, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1514 and yield a much-needed correction later today or Tue.

On the data front, we have German industrial output at European open at 07:00GMT, then EU Sentix index at 09:30GMT. ECB President Lagarde will later speak in a regular hearing to the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs at 15:45 GMT and beware of a brief jump in the euro if she repeats her hawkish comment made in post-ECB presser last Thur.

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AceTraderFx Feb 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.18
Usd's strong rebound from 114.17 last Wed on cross-selling in yen and then rally to 115.42 in post-NPF trading last Fri on upbeat U.S. NFP suggests pullback from 115.68 has possibly ended and re-test of said resistance is seen, above would extend rise from 113.48 to 115.95.

On the downside, only a daily close below 115.00/04 may risk weakness to 114.76/78, break, 114.58 later.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand market holiday, Australia services index, retail sales, China services PMI, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, UK house prices, Germany industrial output, Italy unemployment rate, industrial output and EU sentix index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1441
Although euro's retreat from from last Fri's 11-week peak at 1.1483 to 1.1412 in post-NFP New York signals upmove from Jan's fresh 20-month trough at 1.1122 has made a temporary top there, yesterday's choppy sideways swings would yield further consolidation and as long as 1.1468 (Mon high) holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1412 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1368 later.

On the upside, a firm break above 1.1468 signals pullback over and risks re-test of 1.1483, then one more rise to 1.1510/14 before prospect of a much-needed correction.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco watchers outlook, Australia business conditions, business confidence.
France imports, exports, current account, trade balance, Italy retail sales.
Canada imports, exports, trade balance, U.S. trade balance and redbook retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2022 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.36
Dollar's intra-day cross-inspired break of last week's 115.42 high suggests re-test of previous res at 115.68 would be seen after consolidation, break there would extend recent rise from Jan's 1-month trough at 113.48 to 115.90/00, loss of momentum should cap price below Jan's near 5-year peak at 116.34.

On the downside, below 115.00 any time signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 114.78.

On the data front, U.S. will later release 2nd-teir international trade, goods trade balance n redbook sales.
Traders will probably take cue from intra-day moves in U.S. yields n U.S. stocks.

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AceTraderFx Feb 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Feb 2022 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1418
Although euro's retreat from last Friday's 11-week peak at 1.1483 to 1.1412 in post-NFP New York and yesterday's weakness to 1.1397 in Europe signals upmove from Jan's fresh 20-month trough at 1.1122 has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound would bring consolidation, as long as 1.1448/58 holds, downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1368, break, 1.1345.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1458 signals pullback is over and may risk re-test of 1.1483.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment, China CPI, PPI, UK retail sales.
Germany imports, exports, trade balance.
Canada leading index, U.S. mortgage applications, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

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