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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #6,461
  • Jan 25, 2022 5:19am Jan 25, 2022 5:19am
A New Hurst Cycles Market Update

It's been a bearish week!


In my last market update I spoke about the bearish cycle shapes appearing in the markets, and since then they have fulfilled on that bearish promise!
In today's market update video I look at the S&P 500, BITCOIN and GOLD.Here is the video:

Inserted Video
  • #6,462
  • Jan 25, 2022 6:48am Jan 25, 2022 6:48am
Hi OAPDave

Hope all is well with you & your family. Would you describe the white line on post #6454? I think I am familiar with it, but not sure. Would appreciate it if you would share your settings for that line. I believe it a FLD line.

Have been sick & away for a while & now trying to regroup & get back to business.

This is one of the best if not the best threads on FF & I have learned much from you, Parisboy, Swede & a few others. This is not my core way on trading, but I follow the cycles along with Displayed MA's.

Thank you for your willingness to share. Best of trades to you, my friend.
  • #6,463
  • Edited 8:29am Jan 25, 2022 8:14am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting acetrader
Hi OAPDave Hope all is well with you & your family. Would you describe the white line on post #6454? I think I am familiar with it, but not sure. Would appreciate it if you would share your settings for that line. I believe it a FLD line. Have been sick & away for a while & now trying to regroup & get back to business. This is one of the best if not the best threads on FF & I have learned much from you, Parisboy, Swede & a few others. This is not my core way on trading, but I follow the cycles along with Displayed MA's. Thank...

Hi Ace Hope your health is better and that you are recovering.

thanks for your nice words.;

I agree with you this thread is one of the best thread of FF and other forums but only relatively to its object Envelopes, Waves and Cycles.

We are just the provisory end of a long chain of smart people (Wyckoff, Elliott,Dewey Gann, Murrey Jenkins Levine, Hurst Andrews Tillman etc ) who have build the foundations of what we do and created the simple and so efficient tools we use. We are just honest practitioners of our time helped by the tools of our time.
  • #6,464
  • Jan 25, 2022 8:23am Jan 25, 2022 8:23am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Hi Ace Yes you are correct it is meant to be a 16 day Fld I use the Lazy way of setting them Alligator Jaws 1 Shift 64 chocolate Teeth 1 Shift 32 blue Lips 1 Shift 16 white {image} {image} {image}

Dave elegant and creative solution. using pre-existing elements.
  • #6,465
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:25am Jan 25, 2022 9:25am
DAX 1 mn
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  • #6,466
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:29am Jan 25, 2022 9:29am
DAX 1 mn

Envelopes
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  • #6,467
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:59am Jan 25, 2022 9:59am
DAX 1 mn

Opening Short position

First potential Target 15.080 +/- 8
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  • #6,468
  • Jan 25, 2022 9:59am Jan 25, 2022 9:59am
It was interesting to see how price was contained between the 1536 ma and the 256 lower envelope...40 pip spread atm....
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  • #6,469
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:11am Jan 25, 2022 10:11am
DAX 1 mn

Closed Short position at 15090 +60 points

FLD Target was 15.080 +/- 8 = between 15.088 and 15072

I chickened to protect profit
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  • #6,470
  • Jan 25, 2022 10:26am Jan 25, 2022 10:26am
Quoting Swede
It was interesting to see how price was contained between the 1536 ma and the 256 lower envelope...40 pip spread atm.... {image}
my 2 cents
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  • #6,471
  • Jan 25, 2022 11:04am Jan 25, 2022 11:04am
FLD's

In the present case / chart. visibility is good : Underlying Trend is Flat and we are in a Cyclic Mode - the best conditions to observe and understand the relationship between Price Action Peaks and FLD Lows and conversely
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  • #6,472
  • Jan 25, 2022 11:17am Jan 25, 2022 11:17am
doesn't seem to be much momentum, getting late in the sessions otherwise would consider short scalp here and the reason why (see 1 min and overall 1 hour)
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  • #6,473
  • Jan 25, 2022 11:35am Jan 25, 2022 11:35am
GBPUSD 4 H
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  • #6,474
  • Jan 25, 2022 11:47am Jan 25, 2022 11:47am
GBPUSD 4 h

As long as Price Action has not significantly breoken CMA 256 I wil not open a short position.

If I do on lower Time Units I will consider it as a counter trend short which would impact the targets (reduce partly the amplitude of the bearish swing)
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  • #6,475
  • Jan 25, 2022 11:56am Jan 25, 2022 11:56am
Hello

Ci dessous YM en UT 1mn ajusté à la vol actuelle : ratio de 4 x les valeurs standards ( M256 = 62.5 x 4 = 250 donc 500 points entre la M256H et la M256C )

A noter les MM en bleu pâles qui sont calculés à 2 fois les réglages de la 256 ( donc ici 500 * 2 = 1000 points entre les deux ) qui me servent bien pour visualiser les excès de vol comme en ce moment, surtout une fois les US ouverts. On constate leur pertinence.

Le canal rose = les Tilman en UT30

Merci pour m'avoir initié aux MMC et même si je suis toujours en mode padawan, elles me sont très utiles.

J'ai lu sur la 1536 : je vais étudier ça

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  • #6,476
  • Jan 25, 2022 12:23pm Jan 25, 2022 12:23pm
KEY INFORMATIONS ON

A/ HOW A MOVING AVERAGE WORKS
B/ HOW TO DRAW THE CORRECT CONSEQUENCES FOR YOUR TRADING

Nobody outside me (because of Hurst ) understands really how a moving average works !

Observe the CMA 256 ( brown)

Trend is UP .

If the future value just after the last calculated average point is ABOVE the value 256 Time Units Back (which will not be taken into account in the next future point Moving Average Calculation) THEN CMA 256 Trend will trending UP again. Roughly as long as Price Action fluctuates ABOVE CMA 256 this CMA 256 average will be Uptrending

If the future value just after the last calculated average point is EQUAL to the value 256 Time Units Back (which will not be taken into account in the next future point Moving Average Calculation) THEN CMA 256 Trend will trending FLAT.

If the future value just after the last calculated average point is UNDER the value 256 Time Units Back (which will not be tahken into account in the next future point Moving Average Calculation) THEN CMA 256 Trend will trending DOWN again. Roughly as long as Price Action fluctuates UNDER CMA 256 this CMA 256 average will be DOWN trending
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  • #6,477
  • Edited 1:12pm Jan 25, 2022 12:31pm | Edited 1:12pm
here we go...
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  • #6,478
  • Jan 25, 2022 12:57pm Jan 25, 2022 12:57pm
More on Centered Moving Averages Triad System

Merging of Limits and Averages means that mmerging areas build stronger Support or Resistance
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  • #6,479
  • Jan 25, 2022 1:02pm Jan 25, 2022 1:02pm
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  • #6,480
  • Jan 25, 2022 1:07pm Jan 25, 2022 1:07pm
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