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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,421
  • Jan 23, 2022 3:13pm Jan 23, 2022 3:13pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is in a bearish mode. On the weekly time frame, the most recent bearish swing left behind a supply at the 1.15940/1.16700 zone (purple). There was a bullish retracement for a couple of weeks, but in the last four weeks there has been a sideway of market operation with the 1.13070/1.12110 demand zone (green) being tested. Last week, bearish market operation surged to the demand zone but was repelled, leaving its tail at the upper boundary of the zone. Technicals still favour bears and we may see bearish liquidity engineering in the early part of this week.

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Price action on the daily time frame is sideways. There was a bearish drive to retest the 1.13070/1.12110 weekly demand zone (green) last week Tuesday, but on Wednesday a bullish price action hindered the move. Price action on Thursday and Friday was largely see-saw and lacked directional momentum. Presently, price action is a few pips above the demand zone, and we may see another bearish drive into it in the early part of this week. The 1.15940/1.16700 zone (purple) is the operating weekly supply zone.

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Price action on the H4 time frame is sideways as it tackles the 1.13070/1.12110 weekly demand zone (green). The order flow context and technical structure favour bears more than bulls, and we may see a bearish continuation in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4_Jan. 23, 2022.png Size: 45 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,422
  • Jan 23, 2022 3:28pm Jan 23, 2022 3:28pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is bearish. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation made a bullish retest of the 1.37170/1.38250 supply zone (purple) but was resisted by bears, leaving a top-shadow in the area. This was followed by a bearish candlestick last week. However, the bearish candlestick did not break below the bullish candlestick printed two weeks ago, indicating that bears are not yet fully in control of the market.

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Price action on the daily time frame is bearish after retesting the 1.37360/1.38250 daily supply zone (red) seven days ago. The area is nestled in the 1.37170/1.38250 weekly supply. Presently, price action is tackling a horizontal support at the 1.35500 area. As the technical structure still favours bears, any bullish reaction would be for liquidity grab and would give way to a bearish continuation.

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On the H4 time frame, the order flow context – with formation of supply zones and break of bearish structure – favours bears more than bulls. Meanwhile, there is a decline in bearish momentum as price action is tackling the horizontal support at the 1.35500 area (light green). Nevertheless, apart from corrective bullish actions, we would see further bearish drive on the GBPUSD market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,423
  • Jan 30, 2022 2:18pm Jan 30, 2022 2:18pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation is bullish. On the weekly time frame, market operation printed a bullish candlestick that engulfed the bearish print of two weeks ago. Meanwhile, market operation is at the 115.60/116.30 horizontal resistance area (purple); an area which has held as resistance since the first week of March 2017. Such an area is significant and could prove difficult to breach. Thus, although we may still have northward market engineering for liquidity grab, we can expect increased bearish pushback.

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On the daily time frame, on January 4, 2022, USDJPY price action retested the 115.60/116.30 horizontal resistance area (purple) seen on the weekly time frame; an area which has held as resistance since March 5, 2017. It was rejected for a strong downward swing to the 113.50 area before a bullish move that began on Monday. However, after a strong bullish drive that occurred on Wednesday and Thursday, price action turned sideways on Friday. Should bulls maintain their pressure, we may see further northward move to retest the 115.60/116.30 area (purple), an area which sellers would not give up defending easily. This may result in a southward rotation. The 114.00/113.50 area (green) is daily demand zone.


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On the H4 time frame, on January 26, 2022, there was a bullish move from the 113.75/113.90 demand zone (blue), which is nestled in the 114.00/113.50 daily demand zone (green). The bullish drive continued until price action entered the lower boundary of the 115.60/116.30 horizontal resistance area (purple), seen on the weekly time frame, where it met some selling pressure. Presently, price action is sideways about 40 pips below the area. However, we can expect another bullish move to retest the area and, perhaps, push for a northward liquidity grab before a southward turnaround. The 115.95/116.18 H4 supply zone (magenta) may be a target of any further bullish move. A southward turnaround may target the 113.75/113.90 demand zone (blue).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,424
  • Jan 30, 2022 2:52pm Jan 30, 2022 2:52pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation is bullish under a bearish environment. On the weekly time frame, last week, market operation printed a bullish continuation candlestick, leaving a weekly demand at the 1.26560/1.24490 zone (green). The operating weekly supply is at the 1.30300/1.31710 zone (purple). Technically, we may see further bullish move this week.

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Price action on the daily time frame is bullish. The technical pattern and order flow context support further bullish move.

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Price action on the H4 time frame is bullish. The prevailing technical pattern offers breaks of old H4 supply areas and creation of fresh demand areas, and we may see further bullish move in the early part of this week. However, we should be wary of the fact that the bigger technical structure is bearish, and we may see much selling pressure as we approach the significant 1.29200/1.29440 H4 supply zone (magenta).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,425
  • Jan 30, 2022 3:16pm Jan 30, 2022 3:16pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is bearish. On the weekly time frame, the relatively big bearish candlestick printed last week left a supply zone at the 1.14780/1.13470 area (purple). Meanwhile, market operation is tackling the 1.11320 horizontal support area and we may see some bullish pushback before further bearish drive.
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Price action on the daily time frame is bearish. There was a buying pressure on Friday as price action tackles the 1.11320 horizontal support area (green), but it was not significant, leading to the printing of a small indecision candlestick. We may see further northward move as price action tackles the 1.11320 horizontal support area (green). However, any northward price action in the early part of the week would be a market engineering for liquidity grab. This may give way to a southward turnaround after a bullish pullback to a value area as the 1.12400 horizontal resistance (red).

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On the H4 time frame, on Thursday, bearish price action surged to the 1.11320 horizontal support area (green) seen on the daily time frame and turned sideways. A bullish pushback was initiated in the early part of Friday to break out of the area, but bears resisted the move. Although we may see further bullish attempt in the early part of the week, perhaps for a pullback to such value area as the 1.12400 horizontal resistance (red), or even the 1.12720/1.12960 bearish order block (blue), technically, bears are favoured to retain market control after any bullish correction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,426
  • Jan 30, 2022 3:41pm Jan 30, 2022 3:41pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is bearish. On the weekly time frame, a downward swing which was initiated from the 1.42400/1.41000 supply zone (purple) in June 2021 retraced to the 50/61.8 Fib zone three weeks ago. In the last two weeks, market operation has restored the southward mode with bearish continuation candlesticks.

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Price action on the daily time frame is bearish. There was a buying pressure on Friday as price action tackles the 1.33800 horizontal support area (green), but it was not significant, leading to the printing of a small bullish candlestick with shadow on both ends – indicating market indecision. We may see further northward move as price action tackles the area. But any northward price action in the early part of the week would be temporary; much likely a market engineering for liquidity grab, giving way to a southward turnaround at a value area.

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Price action on the H4 time frame is sideways in a bearish environment as it tackles the 1.33800 horizontal support area (green) seen on the daily time frame. We may see corrective bullish price action in the early part of this week before a southward turnaround. The 1.35060/1.35220 area (magenta) is the H4-supply zone, and amenable to a bullish retest.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,427
  • Feb 6, 2022 2:59pm Feb 6, 2022 2:59pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation is tackling the 115.400/116.100 significant multi-year horizontal resistance zone (purple). On the weekly time frame, since late November 2021, market operation made five attempts to breach the area northward but failed. Last week’s attempt led to the printing of a long tail doji-like candlestick at the lower part of the zone. We may expect another bullish attempt to break out of the zone this week.

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is bullish. However, it is experiencing bearish pressure as it tackles the 115.400/116.100 significant multi-year horizontal resistance zone (purple) seen on the weekly time frame.

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In late January, price action on the H4 time frame retested the 115.400/116.100 significant multi-year horizontal resistance zone (purple) seen on the weekly time frame but met with strong bearish pushback. Another attempt to retest the area was made last week Friday, but, again, bears pushed back. However, the bearish pressure was feeble, and bulls are still favoured to maintain their influence in the market, perhaps after a brief southward correction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4_Feb. 6, 2022.png Size: 45 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,428
  • Feb 6, 2022 3:14pm Feb 6, 2022 3:14pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation is sideways. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation was bullish, but it turned sideways last week. Presently, it is tackling the 1.27600 horizontal resistance area (purple).

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USDCAD price action on the daily time frame is bullish. However, it is experiencing some selling pressure as it tackles the 1.27600 horizontal resistance area (purple) seen on the weekly time frame. Technicals still favour bulls and we may still see further northward move, but the 1.28890/1.29610 zone (red) is still intact as supply.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is experiencing bearish pressure as it tackles the 1.27600 horizontal resistance area (purple) seen on the weekly time frame. Nevertheless, price action is still favorably bullish.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,429
  • Feb 6, 2022 3:32pm Feb 6, 2022 3:32pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is sideways. On the weekly time frame, a bearish swing from the 1.37500 area was initiated three weeks ago, but, last week, a bullish market operation reversed the move. Presently, market operation is retesting the 1.37450/1.35600 weekly supply zone (purple).

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GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways. Price action was bullish for the first three days of last week but after market indecision on Thursday, bears seized on bullish missteps on Friday. Presently, bearish price action has printed a rejection candlestick below the horizontal resistance at the 1.35900/1.36420 area (red) and breaking below the 1.37450/1.35600 weekly supply zone (purple). However, the shadows on both ends of the bearish candlestick indicate that bears are not fully in control of market operation. We can expect further sideway, or even northward move, of price action in the early part of this week should bulls regain control of price action.

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On the H4 time frame, a bullish price action that began in the early part of last week retested the 1.35900/1.36260 horizontal resistance area (magenta). Price action went sideways in the area on Thursday before it turned bearish on Friday. However, there was a buying pressure in the latter part of Friday session, resulting in a ranging mode. Presently, price action is tackling a mini horizontal support at the 1.35290/1.35130 area (light green), and we should await what happens in the early part of the week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,430
  • Feb 6, 2022 3:46pm Feb 6, 2022 3:46pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD bullish drive of last week took market operation to the level it was four weeks ago. On the weekly time frame, market operation is presently tackling the 1.14800 area; an area which is the 61.8 Fib retracement of the 1.16910/1.11200 bearish swing. The bullish drive of last week was a retest of the area. The technical market structure still leaves the 1.15930/1.16670 zone (purple) intact as weekly supply, and we may see further bullish adventure in the early part of this week.

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Price action on the daily time frame has been bullish in the past five days, leaving the 1.11700/1.11220 area (green) as demand. Presently, it is retesting the 1.14360/1.14800 daily supply zone (red) but experiencing a bearish pressure. The technical structure and order flow context favour further bullish move, perhaps to an area of market imbalance or a retest of the 1.15930/1.16670 weekly supply zone (purple).

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EURUSD price action on the H4 time frame is in consolidation. Presently, it is tackling the 1.14360/1.14800 daily supply zone (red) but the order flow context still favours bulls more than bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4_Feb. 6, 2022.png Size: 41 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,431
  • Feb 8, 2022 5:27am Feb 8, 2022 5:27am
I will see a break of EURUSD price action below the 1.14090 area on a daily closing basis as signposting price action intent for a southward turnaround. A bearish set-up in the area on the D1 tf would yield a feasible sell trade.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The EURUSD bullish drive of last week took market operation to the level it was four weeks ago. On the weekly time frame, market operation is presently tackling the 1.14800 area; an area which is the 61.8 Fib retracement of the 1.16910/1.11200 bearish swing. The bullish drive of last week was a retest of the area. The technical market structure still leaves the 1.15930/1.16670 zone (purple) intact as weekly supply, and we may see further bullish adventure in the early part of this week. {image} Price action on the...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,432
  • Feb 13, 2022 3:14pm Feb 13, 2022 3:14pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY market is bullish but experiencing increased bearish resistance. On the weekly time frame, last week, there was a bullish surge to the 116.230 multi-year horizontal resistance area (purple). However, the bullish move was check-mated by bears, resulting in the printing of a long-tailed doji-like candlestick. Recent ‘wicky’ prints in the area also indicate increased bearish pressure.

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is sideways as it tackles the 116.230 multi-year horizontal resistance area (purple) seen on the weekly time frame. On Friday, a bearish price action dipped into the 115.200/114.90 daily demand zone (green) but ended with a long bottom tail, indicating that bulls are still in contention.

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On the H4 time frame, much of last week’s price action saw a bullish drive that left an H4 demand zone at the 115.35 /115.50 area (blue) retesting the 116.10/116.34 H4 supply zone (magenta). However, on Friday, there was a swift and strong bearish push back driving price action southwards to the 115.200/114.90 daily demand zone (green) seen on the daily time frame. As bulls later resisted the move – resulting in the printing of a bearish candlestick with a long bottom tail in the last H4 session on Friday – we may see further bullish pushback, or a sideway of price action, on Monday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4_Feb. 13, 2022.png Size: 48 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,433
  • Feb 13, 2022 3:18pm Feb 13, 2022 3:18pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market is under increased bearish pressure. On the weekly time frame, the last two weeks have seen the printing of doji-like candlesticks at the 1.27780/1.27140 horizontal resistance area (purple) – indicating a pause in directional momentum.

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Price action on the daily time is in a bullish mode after it broke above a horizontal range on Thursday. But it is a few pips below the 1.27780 horizontal resistance (red), and we should await what happens in the area upon Monday close.

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On the H4 time frame, although price action is presently in a bullish mode, it is operating in a horizontal channel spanning the 1.26520/1.27820 zone (blue). A directional trade entry would not be sustained until there is a significant breakout/breakdown of the range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,434
  • Feb 13, 2022 3:23pm Feb 13, 2022 3:23pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is in a bullish mode but experiencing increased bearish pressure. On the weekly time frame, market operation is retesting the 1.35530/1.37450 supply zone (red). Two weeks ago, a relatively strong bullish market operation surged into the zone but met some bearish pushback, leading to the printing of an upper shadow on the bullish candlestick. Last week saw another bullish attempt to break further up within the zone but, again, bears pushed back, resulting in the printing of a relatively small doji-like candlestick at the lower part of the zone. We may see increased bearish pressure in the GBPUSD market during the week.

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On the daily time frame, bullish price action is retesting the 1.35870/1.36450 daily supply zone (magenta) – which is nestled in the 1.35530/1.37450 weekly supply zone (red) – but it is being resisted by bears. The ‘wicky’ and bearish candlesticks printed in the zone indicate increased selling pressure. We may not have much directional momentum because the nearby 1.35290 area (green) is holding as horizontal support and even if it is broken down, price action would still have to tackle the technical challenge at the 1.34830 area. Personally, I will await how price action handled these two areas – the 1.35290 area and the 1.34830 area – upon Monday close.

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Price action on the H4 time frame is ranging within the 1.36160/1.35090 zone (blue). However, presently, the technical structure favours bears more than bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4_Feb. 13, 2022.png Size: 45 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,435
  • Feb 13, 2022 3:37pm Feb 13, 2022 3:37pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is in a bearish mode. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation retested the 1.13510/1.14840 supply zone (purple) but could not breach it northwards. Last week, bears seized on bullish misstep and defended the zone, leading to the printing of a bearish candlestick in the area.

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On the daily time frame, on Friday, price action broke down the 1.140900 horizontal support area (red) to flip it as resistance. However, the bearish momentum was not significant enough and bulls pushed back, leading to the printing of a bearish candlestick with a bottom tail. This indicates that bulls are still in contention. As price action is presently at a significant horizontal support, the 1.13510 area (green), we may see some sideways of market action – even a corrective bullish price action – before any southward drive.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has retested the 1.14640/1.14820 supply zone (magenta) a few times in the last two weeks but has failed to breach it northwards. Presently, price action is bearish, and it is navigating the 1.13510 horizontal support area (green) seen on the daily time frame. As price action tackles the area, we may expect sideways of price action, or even a bullish corrective move, but the 1.13000/1.12650 H4-demand zone (light green) may be tested in the process. A significant bearish breakdown of the 1.13000/1.12650 H4-demand zone (light green) may incentivize bears to target the 1.11600/1.11200 handle. At any rate, any bearish trading bias should await a significant bullish corrective move to an area of value – advisably after Monday close.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,436
  • Feb 20, 2022 2:28pm Feb 20, 2022 2:28pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation is bullish, but it is experiencing bearish pressure. On the weekly time frame, market operation is at the lower boundary of the 116.250/116.910 multi-year horizontal resistance area (purple). Recent market operation in the area has been sideways but there is an increase in bearish pressure.

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The 116.250 area (red) has acted as horizontal support on the daily time frame since January 10, 2017. It was first retested on January 4, 2022, which yielded a bearish rejection with about 78.6 Fib retracement of the 112.550/116.350 bullish swing. A second retest of the area was on February 10, 2022, resulting in another bearish pullback, this time to the 115.00 area – a horizontal support. Last week Friday, bulls made a pushback from the 115.00 horizontal support area, but their effort was feeble, and bears resisted the move, resulting in the printing of a doji-like candlestick in the area. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out further bullish push on Monday.

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USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is consolidating as it tackles the 115.00 horizontal support area seen on the daily time frame. Although, presently, bears are exerting pressure on price action, we cannot rule out a bullish pushback on Monday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,437
  • Feb 20, 2022 2:46pm Feb 20, 2022 2:46pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation is in consolidation. On the weekly time frame, market operation made a 78.6 Fib retracement of the 1.22870/1.29630 bullish swing. After two weeks of bullish market operation, the last three weeks have been sideways – with the printing of indecision candlesticks at the 1.27500 horizontal resistance area (purple). The ‘wicky’ candlesticks previously printed above the area may incentivize northward market operation for liquidity grab.

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The technical structure of the USDCAD on the daily time frame favours bulls more than bears. However, presently, price action is consolidating within the 1.26500/1.27800 zone (blue).

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Price action on the H4 time frame is bullish but presently consolidating within the 1.26500/1.27800 zone (blue). Any bearish price action may see a retest of the 1.25860/1.25600 demand zone (green) before a bullish turnaround. A bullish breakout from the 1.26500/1.27800 consolidation zone (blue) may expose the 1.28500 value area (magenta).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,438
  • Feb 20, 2022 3:03pm Feb 20, 2022 3:03pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a strong bullish drive that took market operation to the 1.14600 horizontal resistance area (purple), the EURUSD market resumed a bearish mode two weeks ago. But, bulls are resisting the bearish pressure, resulting in the printing of a doji-like candlestick on the weekly time frame last week. Nevertheless, the technical structure favours bears.

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EURUSD price action is bearish on the daily time frame. However, as price action is just a few pips above the 1.13000 horizontal support (green), we may not have a reliable bearish momentum until a significant breakdown of the 1.13000 horizontal support area. Should bears succeed in breaking down the area, we may see the 1.11300 long-term reaction area (blue) exposed. Any bullish price action would likely be corrective.

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EURUSD H4 price action is bearish. As it is tackling the 1.13000 horizontal support (green), seen on the daily time frame, we may see some sideway or bullish price action. Technicals favour bears more than bulls.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,439
  • Feb 20, 2022 3:34pm Feb 20, 2022 3:34pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although GBPUSD market operation is in a bearish environment, presently, it is in a bullish mode. On the weekly time frame, six weeks ago, market operation retested the 1.37000/1.38300 supply zone (purple) and met a bearish pushback. This left the 1.37400/1.35530 area (red) as new supply zone – the zone has seen much sideway of market operation in the last three weeks as bulls retested it.

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GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways as it retests the 1.35900/1.36400 supply zone (magenta) nestled in the 1.37400/1.35530 weekly supply (red). Any bullish drive would meet resistance at the next daily supply located in the 1.3700/1.37400 area. Technically, the market environment is bearish. It would take a significant northward breakout from the 1.38300/1.39000 area on a daily closing basis before we can expect a potential bullish change of character.

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GBUSD price action on the H4 time frame turned sideways after a bearish rejection of the 1.36400 horizontal resistance (magenta). Technically, we are in a bearish market environment and the 1.37000/1.37480 area (blue) is still intact as a supply zone.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,440
  • Feb 27, 2022 2:17pm Feb 27, 2022 2:17pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation is in a bullish mode. On the weekly time frame, last week, market operation printed a bullish candlestick that broke out of the sideways of the previous three weeks. The 116.74/118.60 area (purple), a multi-year weekly supply, is less than 170 pips above current location of market operation and likely a target of any further northward move.

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is bullish. There was a retest of the 114.16/114.62 daily demand (green) twice last week, but a bullish continuation print was issued on Friday.

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USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is in a bullish mode but there was a decline in bullish momentum during the last H4-session on Friday, resulting in the printing of a relatively small bearish candlestick. The order flow context favours bulls more than bears.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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