The EURCHF trade I posted earlier is still hanging about, going nowhere slowly. But EURJPY took off and luckily I was on it.
Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)
- #182
- Jan 20, 2022 7:26pm Jan 20, 2022 7:26pm
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
{quote} I remember this setup from your post early in January. I still like that channel concept. I see you use a method very similar to a video I happened to watch today. I wonder what you think of it (it's a bit long-winded so I used the right arrow quite a bit). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvFvD3fNWvM
2) i always wait for candle to close beyond 10 ema chanel. candles are closing inside the chanel signify consolidation.
3) it ia always better to enter on the first pullback continuation pattern. the risk reward ratio is very good.
4) after entry as long as the candles are closing outside the chanel also signify a strong and healthy trend.
5) i use fibo expansion for target and chanel to trail my stoplosss.
- #183
- Jan 20, 2022 10:43pm Jan 20, 2022 10:43pm
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
todays trade.
all criteria fullfilled to go short.
H1 chart 
all criteria fullfilled to go short.
H1 chart
- #184
- Jan 20, 2022 10:47pm Jan 20, 2022 10:47pm
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
fibo expansion for targets 
- #185
- Jan 20, 2022 11:07pm Jan 20, 2022 11:07pm
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
first target hit. sl moved to break even for second lot 
- #186
- Jan 21, 2022 3:21am Jan 21, 2022 3:21am
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
target 2 hit 
happy weekend
and cheers 
happy weekend
and cheers - #187
- Edited 4:01am Jan 21, 2022 3:48am | Edited 4:01am
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
so many ways fibo can help to know how healthy the trend is. 
look at the last but 4 bullish candle. exact retracement to 61.8 % mark. still the close is out of the 10 ema channel. the rsi are still below one another and below 50. the next bearish candle opened at 61.8% resistance and closed well outside the 10 ema channel. this confirms a healthy downtrend.
if the retracement starts crossing the 50% mark and approaches the 38.2% mark i ususlly get out of the trade irrespective of the profit or loss. it means the trend is not healthy. find a better setup in another instrument rather than getting stuck in a choppy and uncertain trade.
first fibo was to see continuation pattern and get a good entry point
second fibo for target levels
third to make decision to stay in the trade or quit.
unlike the speaker in the video you posted Spudfun who is only looking at 50%, better to have a open mind and lateral thinking.
"The truth is that trading success is inside our minds and the holy grail is between our ears."
look at the last but 4 bullish candle. exact retracement to 61.8 % mark. still the close is out of the 10 ema channel. the rsi are still below one another and below 50. the next bearish candle opened at 61.8% resistance and closed well outside the 10 ema channel. this confirms a healthy downtrend.
if the retracement starts crossing the 50% mark and approaches the 38.2% mark i ususlly get out of the trade irrespective of the profit or loss. it means the trend is not healthy. find a better setup in another instrument rather than getting stuck in a choppy and uncertain trade.
first fibo was to see continuation pattern and get a good entry point
second fibo for target levels
third to make decision to stay in the trade or quit.
unlike the speaker in the video you posted Spudfun who is only looking at 50%, better to have a open mind and lateral thinking.
"The truth is that trading success is inside our minds and the holy grail is between our ears."
- #189
- Edited 9:31am Jan 21, 2022 9:19am | Edited 9:31am
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
Yellow rectangle is no trade zone as price action is moving above and below Guppy LT EMAs
The start of down trend is when the Long term guppy cross . ie 30 ema crossses 60 ema down. (red ema 30 crossing below magenta ema 60)
At my entry candle : 1) all LT emas are evenly spread. this is the first criteria. if this is not fulfilled there is no trade.
2) the first candle to close below 10 ema channel.( if this is not fulfilled i consider it as a consolidation hence no trade)
3) rsi 6 should cross below rsi 12 at the same candle and both below 50.
4) supportive criteria but not mandatory : trend line break, flag formation, fib retracement less than 50.
identifying the first candle, ie first pullback continuation pattern after the start of the trend gives max profit in minimum time.
During trade : remain in trade till
all candle close outside 10 ema channel.
rsi 6 should remain below rsi 12.
if any of above fail, book partial profit and trail rest on ema 10 high.
Targets as per fibo extension. T1 for 1 lot T2 book full priiofit.
Either trade futures or sell options. i never buy options because the time value detoriates significantly. in selling options time is your second best friend , first being the trend itself.
The start of down trend is when the Long term guppy cross . ie 30 ema crossses 60 ema down. (red ema 30 crossing below magenta ema 60)
At my entry candle : 1) all LT emas are evenly spread. this is the first criteria. if this is not fulfilled there is no trade.
2) the first candle to close below 10 ema channel.( if this is not fulfilled i consider it as a consolidation hence no trade)
3) rsi 6 should cross below rsi 12 at the same candle and both below 50.
4) supportive criteria but not mandatory : trend line break, flag formation, fib retracement less than 50.
identifying the first candle, ie first pullback continuation pattern after the start of the trend gives max profit in minimum time.
During trade : remain in trade till
all candle close outside 10 ema channel.
rsi 6 should remain below rsi 12.
if any of above fail, book partial profit and trail rest on ema 10 high.
Targets as per fibo extension. T1 for 1 lot T2 book full priiofit.
Either trade futures or sell options. i never buy options because the time value detoriates significantly. in selling options time is your second best friend , first being the trend itself.
- #190
- Jan 21, 2022 9:30am Jan 21, 2022 9:30am
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
{quote} I have never found the fibo very convincing - so many lines to choose from (23, 38, 50, etc), price has a high probability of reaching one of them.
most imp is that i had posted this pic during the trade itself. so if used wisely fibo is a excellent tool.
- #193
- Jan 21, 2022 8:42pm Jan 21, 2022 8:42pm
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
indian markets are open for 6 hrs a day. so rsi 6 and 12 are equivalent to rsi 1 and 2 on daily timeframe. so for me the daily candle price action is reflected on H1. For D1 charts i use rsi 5 and 10
Yellow rectangle is no trade zone as price action is moving above and below Guppy LT EMAs The start of down trend is when the Long term guppy cross . ie 30 ema crossses 60 ema down. (red ema 30 crossing below magenta ema 60) At my entry candle : 1) all LT emas are evenly spread. this is the first criteria. if this is not fulfilled there is no trade. 2) the first candle to close below 10 ema channel.( if this is not fulfilled i consider it as a consolidation hence no trade) 3) rsi 6 should cross below rsi 12 at the same candle and both below 50....
Do you have any comments about my example?
- #196
- Jan 22, 2022 5:13am Jan 22, 2022 5:13am
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
{quote} Thank you! This is interesting, because I find my attention spread between too many assets. So if I got you right, you only have 9-10 assets, but try to check them every hour 15m before the 1H candle close while the market is open? How many trades a week or a month do you find this way?
trading is not my profession but i am learning as my retirement plan
- #197
- Edited 6:07am Jan 22, 2022 5:43am | Edited 6:07am
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
{quote} all my assets are from different sectors so i am in trade every day. in fact i miss a lot of them because i focus on only one trade at a time.
I'm in the same boat - working full time etc, but trying to fit trading into my daily routine.
- #199
- Jan 22, 2022 8:37pm Jan 22, 2022 8:37pm
- Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,019 Posts
{quote} So you have about 10 assets from different sectors, which gives you about 1 trade daily? I'm in the same boat - working full time etc, but trying to fit trading into my daily routine.
